NFLBrad said:
Hi Hitman,
I am doing my due diligence and shopping season long player prop lines across different outs. Perhaps this is a better question for Fezzik, but do you have any recommendation or rationale behind how much of an overlay is necessary to provide value? Using Jared Goff passing yards as an example:
- One book is offering UNDER 4300.5 at -130
- Another is offering OVER 4150.5 at -110
Is 150 passing yards enough to justify placing both bets?
Additionally, I have two season long player props that I would love your opinion on.
Lamar Jackson passing yards UNDER 3200.5 (-110)
- In seven starts last season, Jackson had 119 rushing attempts (average of 17 per game). How does that compare to other successful quarterbacks that we consider "mobile" or "dual threat"? Cam Newton has a career average of 7.5 rushing attempts per game. Russell Wilson: 5.75. What about the most extreme comparison - Michael Vick circa 2004-2006? Vick averaged just 7.5 rushing attempts per game during that span. I think it's safe to say that Jackson's chance of injury is high if he averages double digit rushing attempts this season.
- Suppose Lamar Jackson stays healthy throughout the 2019 season. To surpass 3200.5 passing yards, he needs to average right around 200 passing yards per game. In seven starts last season, Jackson averaged just under 160 passing yards per game and eclipsed the 200 yard mark only once.
Le'Veon Bell receiving yards UNDER 600.5 (-125)
- During his final two seasons in Pittsburgh, Bell logged 616 and 655 receiving yards before sitting out all of 2018 due to contract disputes.
- Sam Darnold is light years away from being the quarterback that Ben Roethlisberger is, and Bell will be 28 years old by the end of the season - keep in mind that he has only appeared in all 16 regular season games once in his career. Without seeing any preseason snaps, Bell will likely start off the season a bit sluggish as he shakes off the rust.
Thank you in advance for your input!
I like that Leveon Bell under. Adam Gase’ Miami offense was 32nd, 22nd, and 32nd in plays run the last three seasons. Bell has averaged 3.6 missed games over his first five seasons.
I also like that under for that Jackson prop. You can obviously win that under if Jackson misses ANY time, and with the amount of rushing attempts he has, that is definitely a possibility. If Jackson plays all 16, I would lean that you will win. The Ravens have 2nd easiest schedule against opposing rush defenses this season, so they should be running the hell out of the ball once again.
Fezzik would be the best guy to ask about the middle. Personally, I would play that middle if you have a big enough bankroll that affords you to tie up the money for 5 months, but I will admit seeing one of the lines at -130 probably makes it only marginally +EV.