In this topic I will post season long player prop bets (Caesars is posting lines for every single big name player). Even if you can’t bet it, there’s some notable fantasy football information as well. Hope this helps some people betting or fantasy wise!
Kyler Murray O3190.5 Pass Yds: LOVE this bet. Bad defense plus air raid system going 4 wide and throwing constantly under pass heavy HC. Two of my most respected projection places I go to have him around 3600-3700. Injury only way it goes under, and Lincoln Riley said Murray was never in the trainers room in college. Scouts say Wilson esque at avoiding hits.
3200=200 YPG.. 29 QB’s did better then that in 2018.
Very small chance doesn’t reach that in pass heavy system
Basically laying -110 that Murray won’t miss 2 or more games
Kenny Golladay U1149.5 Rec Yds -110: Lions candidate to go from 14th in pass % to bottom five. Target share likely to decrease after adding Jones/KJohnson/Hock/Amendola/James
Adam Thielen U1249.5 Rec Yds -110: 19,80,38 rec yds once Stefanski took over at OC. Vikings 4th highest pass % last season, could be bottom five next season.
Mike Davis U477.5 Rush Yds -110: At best second in line for touches, very likely ends up third. Projection should be around 300 rush yds.
Winston O4099.5 Pass Yds -110: Good longshot at 25/1 to win the passing yards title. Bucs quarterbacks threw for 5400 yards last season, and this year they once again have an aggressive play caller (Arians replacing Monken) with a terrible defense. If Winston stays healthy, he smashes this number, and could throw for close to 5000 yards.
Corey Davis U942.5 Rec Yds -110
Davis had a 25% target share last season, one of the tops in the league, yet still failed to hit this number. The titans are amongst the run heaviest teams in the league, and now add Humphries, Walker, and AJ Brown into the mix. His target share is guaranteed to drop, so the only path to going over is a MASSIVE increase in efficiency.
Eric Ebron U8.5 TDS -110
Last year Ebron had the outlier year, scoring 13 touchdowns. 9 touchdowns a year is what future hall of fame players typically score, not role players like Ebron. This year, Paris Campbell, Devin funchess, Jack doyle, and Mo Alie Cox are all expected to bite into Ebrons opportunity. Ebrons snap count last year only went up due to a Doyle injury. Before the injury, Doyle was our snapping Ebron 331 to 164, and out targeting him 33-22. Ebron only had six targets inside the 10 yard line, which suggests his TD amount was fluky.
DJ Moore O59.5 Rec -110
51 players reached 60+ receptions last year, while Moore as a 21 year old rookie fell only a few catches short. Moore is a fifth round fantasy pick who’s game is reliant on catching short passes with YAC. Number should be 70 or so.
Tarik Cohen U7.5 total TD -120
- Cohen U7.5 touchdowns: three total carries inside five in career. 8 tds last year. 3 in 2017 with similar usage. Last year was the aberration for player who doesn’t see red zone usage. Montgomery the back to own in fantasy. Compared to being the next Kareem Hunt for Matt Nagy, after Chicago traded up to use their first pick on.
Phillip Lindsay U967.5 rush yds -110
number based off last year stats. Small player who could have trouble staying healthy (already was injured all offseason after wrist surgery) Denver has said they envision freeman (who has higher draft capital) and Lindsay being a tandem and signed Theo Riddick who could steal some snaps as well.
Geronimo Allison U799.5 Rec Yds
- A player who has yet to show he can stay healthy in his short career. Fighting for the second most targets on Green Bay with MVS, who is another intriguing prospect. Green Bay has talked up throwing to running backs more and being More balanced on offense under Matt Lafleur. It’s 50/50 if Geronimo wins a starting WR spot, and if he doesn’t, it will be almost impossible to reach 800 yards