Again thanks so much for the awesome comments each week.. I feel like a twitter fraud who would claim sone unrealistic amount of units and win % with no documentation but the good think about the forums is that it’s all documented with 15K views a week.. been just an unreal run.. ready to hopefully continue it.
2* Jacksonville Jags -4.5 *LOSER*
- Deshaun Watson playing on a possibly collapsed lung/broken rib against this defense with his offensive line is a recipe for disaster. The Jags have been great off a loss the L2 years, and now get to play off of two straight embarrassing losses. I have the game PR at -6, with houston being one of the oddsmakers most overrated teams in the league. This team had to SURVIVE at home against Buffalo/Dallas, and at the road at Indy. They made Eli Manning look good. This is not a good team, despite their perceived talent.
2* Minnesota Vikings -3 -115 *WINNER*
- Two weeks ago, the Jets were getting 1 at home to Denver. Now, they find themselves getting only 3 at home vs Minnesota. Now, the Jets should be upgraded off the last two weeks, but not nearly as much as people believe. I am cautious with road favorites, but Minnesota a clear edge on both sides of the ball, with a big matchup edge being their elite pass catchers against a jets secondary possibly missing 3 starters . This defense is no joke against a rookie QB, as Josh Rosen (did not convert a third or fourth down all game), learned.
2* Baltimore Ravens -2.5 -110 *LOSER*
- Slight line value off the most key number in the NFL. Saints better road team then perception, but Brees home/road splits are noticeably different, and projected 15MPH winds are beneficial to BAL.
2* San Francisco 49ers +10 -110 *LOSER*
- What SF did last night vs GB was no fluke.. their offense has been productive three straight games without Jimmy G, and they are getting healthier by the week. I have this SF team rated similar to Denver, who was only getting 6.5! It’s a divisional game, and hone dogs of 10+ Points has been a money situation long term (I don’t have the official stat on them, maybe Maki or RJ_Bell does?)
2* Rams/49ers OVER 52 -110 *LOSER*
- Any fatigue from 3 straight road games for LAR or a short week for the 49ers will benefit the offenses in this game. The SF offense has been more then competent post jimmy G, but their defense has let them down against the two competent defenses they’ve played, and the Rams defense has gotten pasted ever since the injuries to Peters/Talib, and they are now also missing Michael Brockers upfront. The only these two teams met playing starters, their was an offensive explosion for 80 Points.
2* Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 -110 *WINNER*
- We get one of the best teams in the NFL, off a loss, and also power rating value in a home prime time game against a bengals team that has long struggled in prime time? The bengals have a reputation for a decent defense, but their defense has actually been well below average this season. The Bengals have played three road games this season. Two were 50/50 SU wins where we bet them +3 at Indy and +6 at Atlanta. Another was a loss to Carolina. Now the Chiefs are only laying the same amount of points that the Falcons were initially laying 3 weeks ago. Rare to have this kind of value on the Chiefs.. I think the line should be -6.5 to -7..