- Here are my way too early week 1 thoughts that I posted in mid april.. this was pre draft, so if anyone has any individual questions on a game they are looking at, I'd love to answer them. /pregame-forums/f/9/t/1673265.aspx
And here is my 2017 NFL Futures. They have been pretty profitable over the last 3 seasons, so let's hope we have another good year. https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/nfl/1684544/nfl-futures-2017-10-4-22-20-units-all-time
Anyone who has followed the last three years knows my style. My best attribute in regards to football handicapping is personnel matchups., but I also find myself able to spot off lines due to my power ratings. One of the most important things in handicapping is gathering information. Not only do I factor in my own opinion in my handicapping, but I also factor in the opinion of people who I respect when it comes to NFL knowledge. It's a small list of people, including a few sharp NFL minds from pregame. Anyone who thinks they know it all when it comes to handicapping is ignorant. The more information and smart opinions you can gather, the sharper your picks will be and the more success you will have. If anyone has a question about a game, where I lean on a game, etc.. I am always happy to answer.
Anyone who follows this season.. just please be prepared for swings. There will be a lot of winning weeks. I also guarantee there will be losing weeks. There could be back to back losing weeks, hell, maybe even 3 in a row. Sports betting is a lot of luck but there is a small amount of skill that separates the long term winners and losers. Money management and self discipline are the most important thing in betting, even more important then skill.
I consider myself one of the hardest workers on pregame when it comes to NFL Capping. I appreciate every comment, view, and thoughts given on the games. Let's have another GREAT NFL Season.
FYI: Yes, this is a HUGE week 1 card. I usually will not play this many games.. but week 1 is a unique week. I often find the most value in week 1, mostly because of the lines being available for over 4 months.
3* New England Patriots -7 -120 *LOSER*
Let me just say first.. yes, this is insanely early to bet a game. But this line is off by over a FG IMO, and I can't resist not betting it with this kind of value, because I think the game closes around 10. This is a rare game where I feel we have amazing line value, and amazing matchup advantages. I've mentioned it before, but it's worth repeating, that Alex Smith's career record SU is remarkably bad when his opponent scores over 21 points. Smith and this Chiefs offense is flat out not built to win shootouts. They are a team that relies on their ability to protect the ball and force turnovers, which is not the way you can beat the Patriots, who rarely make mistakes. This Patriots team was the best team in the league last year, and they have gotten even better, and more explosive on offense from what they were last season. The Chiefs, personnel wise, and statistically from last season, have a good amount of flaws on their team. They lack an explosive passing game, so they can not keep up with high scoring offenses. The running game struggled last season, mostly because of a league average offensive line. The run defense struggled mightily last season, and they still have holes at inside linebacker and defensive line. The Chiefs still lack solid corner play aside from the playmaking, but gambling corner Marcus Peters. On a neutral field, I have the Patriots rated around 7 points better then the Chiefs. That does not take into account the amazing home field advantage this Patriots team has. It also does not take into account the dominance that the Super Bowl Champions have had ATS recently against teams in season openers at home. The Patriots, once again, are the leagues most versatile offense. We have the FAR superior offense, a slightly superior defense, the coaching advantage, and one of the leagues most dominant home fields. This number is short, and will go up.
2* Tampa Bay Bucs +2.5 -115 *CANCELLED*
- I would not be shocked if Tampa closed as a small favorite in this game. We simply have the better team getting points. Tampa's season win total is at 8, on the way to 8.5 potentially. Miami's season win total is 7.5, with a possibility of it hitting 7. Miami has a very minimal HFA, but one of the big advantages they have early in the season is when they play in the humidity of Miami. A lot of times other teams are not prepared to play in the heat for 60 minutes early in the season, and Miami wears them down. Well, that's obviously not a problem for the road team in this matchup, which negates any extra HFA Miami would have against them. Tampa has the better quarterback, and the better weapons surrounding their quarterback. They also have the superior defense, and I particularly really like the matchup of Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker going against the Miami interior offensive line, which is a huge question mark for this team, especially if Pouncey's injury concerns linger into the season. Miami's defensive weakness is their cornerback play (although their run defense was weak also, so that could be listed as a weakness as well), and Tampa now has one of the leagues best pass catching duos, who are perfect complements to each others skillsets. I have this game lined near PK, and I also give Tampa a ton of matchup advantages against this Miami team. I suppose by August when the Tampa hype train picks up even more steam, Tampa will be the favorite in this game.
2* New York Giants +6 -125 *LOSER*
- The Giants showed that they had the formula to slow down this Dallas offense last season. First off, Dallas was able to shutdown Dez Bryant with Janoris Jenkins. The Giants have a very deep cornerback group, and one of the leagues best safeties in Landon Collins, which really negated the Dallas pass catchers. The Giants are one of the few teams that Dallas' offensive line could not push around in the trenches, which negated some of Dallas' early down success rate that made second and third down very manageable for Dak Presscott. On offense, I love the Giants pass catching weapons matching up with the cowboys defensive backs. The Cowboys are thin at corner after losing so many free agents in the secondary this year. OBJ, Marshall, and Shepherd all hold matchup advantages against Anthony Brown, Orlando Scandrick, and Chidobe Awuzie. The only reason this is not a bigger play is because of the Giants putrid lack of success offensively on the road in 2016. But I think this game should be lined around 4, so we are getting line value on the game, and we are also getting a Giants team that matches up excellently with the Cowboys.
2* Los Angeles Rams +3.5 -125 *WINNER*
- Free roll play here. With Andrew Luck fully healthy, I have this game lined around Colts -1. If Luck does not play, the Rams will quickly flip to more then field goal favorites! Reports have it 50/50 that Luck plays. As of right now, two of my three books still have this bet on the board, including 5Dimes.
1* Minnesota Vikings -3 -130 *WINNER*
Few numbers I want to throw out for this game. Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings are 18-7 ATS at home, which is the best mark in the NFL over the past three seasons. The Vikings are also 21-3 SU when they score 21 or more points under Mike Zimmer. Clearly, I believe this is a game where they can easily reach 21 points. The Vikings have underrated weapons surrounding Sam Bradford, who had 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions last season, while also setting an NFL record for completion percentage in a season. The big weakness of this Minnesota team is the offensive line.. but the Saints lack the disruptive pass rush to control the LOS against Minnesota. With time to throw, Sam Bradford, at home, is going to have a lot of matchup advantages with Kyle Rudolph, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook out of the backfield. The Saints need to score to keep up with teams.. and I can't see Brees lighting up this Minnesota team. He will get his, but this Vikings squad is a dominant defense at home. Last year, before injuries destroyed the teams season, Minnesota handled Green Bay, NYG, and Houston at home.. 3 playoff teams from last season. But the biggest reason for this play is line value. I have the Vikings rated about 1 point better then the Saints. The Vikings have a 3.5 point HFA, which means I have this game valued at -4.5 to the Vikings.
1* Tennessee Titans PK +100 *LOSER*
IMO, we have a line that is clearly off, mostly due to the love and infatuation from the public towards this Raiders team. The Titans should be about 2.5 point favorites in this game, so we get clear value playing them at PK for even money. The Titans have the potential to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. Last year, they had a elite running game, an elite OLine, and a young promising QB. This year, they have added WR Eric Decker and WR Corey Davis to the playmaking core of WR Rishard Matthews and TE Delanie Walker. A defense as poor as the Raiders, who were the leagues worst teams in defensive YPP, will struggle to contain this multi dimensional offense. The Raiders are weak in the interior Dline and linebacker, and also led the league in explosive pass plays given up, which is a bad combo against a run heavy and playaction deep shot type of offense. The Titans have the 4th rated run offense for EDSR, and the Raiders have the 23rd ranked run defense EDSR. The Raiders offense will undoubtedly score points, but I believe the Titans at home will score more. Throw in the early start time for the Raiders, and double revenge for the Titans from losses to Oakland the past two seasons, the Titans are worth a small week 1 investment.
1* Buffalo Bills -6.5 -110 *WINNER*
Short and sweet. My power ratings have the Jets so low, that I would line this game at Buffalo -8.5. The Jets UNDER 5 wins is the biggest bet of my life, and this team is going to be a full out fade throughout the NFL Season. The teams with the worst straight up records each individual year are often the worst teams in the NFL ATS during that season. This Jets offense, now missing Quincy Enunwa, is going to be historically bad IMO. The spot is pro Buffalo, with the Bills seeking double revenge from last season. Get ready to potentially fade this Jets team often this year.. because the front office is clearly tanking.
1* Jets/Bills UNDER 41.5 -110 *WINNER*
- I would get this sooner rather then later, like Fezzik recommended. His line movement predictions thread is gold. The Jets have a chance to be the worst offense in modern NFL history this season. The team has a bottom 5 offensive line, the worst skill position players in the NFL by a significant margin, and league worst quarterback play. The Jets made the baffling decision to hold starting QB Josh mcCown out of practice for nearly a week, and out of the teams third preseason game. The strength of the Buffalo Bills is their run game, and the only strength of this Jets team is their run defens. Also add in the fact that the Bills have lost two of their top 3 wideouts from training camp, and are replacing one of them with new number one wideout possession wideout Jordan Matthews, who has gotten close to zero reps with Tyrod Taylor due to an injury. Oh, and add in the fact that Tyrod is recovering from a concussion himself, and that several respected NFL minds have said the Bills are setting up Tyrod to fail by not running an offense that fits his strengths well. Tough to envision where the points are going to come from with neither team having many explosive threats on offense, and both teams having gutted their offensive playmaking core this offseason.
1* Arizona Cardinals ML +115 *LOSER*
- As I said in my week 1 thoughts back in late April, better team getting points. Chandler Jones is going to pose a HUGE matchup problem for the Lions replacement for Taylor Decker at LT. The Cardinals biggest weakness is the teams pass protection for Carson Palmer.. when he gets time, he can be deadly, and luckily, he gets to go against quite possibly the worst pass rush in the NFL. Matt Stafford is 4-33 SU against winning teams, and I have this Cardinals team power rated as an above average team.
1* Los Angeles Chargers +4 -120 *WINNER*
- Better team getting points IMO. The Chargers edge rush duo of Bosa and Ingram pose big problems for Denver. The Denver passing game is reliant on Thomas and Sanders, but the Chargers have the elite cornerback duo of Verrett and Hayward to force Denver to have to potentially rely on other players to make plays. The Chargers have a multi dimensional offense that can attack defenses in many different ways.. they have a solid running back, and solid tight ends, and a quarterback who knows where to go with the ball ..which is the way to attack this Denver defense.
1* San Francisco 49ers +5 -110 *LOSER*
- Talked about this on the podcast a little.. new offense for Cam, limited work in it.. think this game stays very close.