With my 3* winner on the Chicago White Sox +150 last night, my 3*s now 4-1 at Pregame.com and all were underdogs. Here is a complete listing:
7/4/2012 NY Yankees +132 Winner +396
7/5/2012 Kansas City +125 Winner +375
7/6/2012 Toronto +150 Loser -300
7/8/2012 New York Yankees +110 Winner +330
7/17/2012 Chicago White Sox +155 Winner +465
And below is the complete write-up of the Chicago White Sox play from 7/17. By reading the full write-up it should be clear that we have a distinct advantage over the linesmakers because we have access to information that is not factored into the line. This is how you win money betting baseball -- using information that is not factored into the line. When you are using information to handicap, you should ask yourself, "Does this information give me an advantage over the linesmakers?"
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Chicago +150 over BOSTON – The Red Sox took game one of this four-game series by a score 5-1 while holding the White Sox to only five hits. This is a very soft spot for the Red Sox and Lester is not in a good spot as well. This puts us on a good team as a big dog.
Boston is 0-10 as a night favorite when they are off a win by fewer than nine runs in which they held their opponent to six or fewer hits. The SDQL text is:
team=Red Sox and NGT and F and po:hits<=6 and 0 < p:margin < 9 and 20110804<=date
Boston has lost these ten games by an average of 4.0 runs, despite being an average of -159 on the moneyline. Ouch.
In their three games in this spot this season, they have never led.
In addition, the Red Sox are 13-22 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and 8-12 since April 11, 2011 as a home 140+ favorite when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter.
Chicago will have their game faces on here and that’s what you want when playing a big dog – a team that thinks they have a chance to win. The White Sox are 37-17 at night vs an AL foe after a multiple-run loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base. The SDQL text is:
team=White Sox and NGT and C and p:team left on base<5 and p:margin<-1 and 20040810<=date
This win percentage of 68.5% is tops in the league. The Phillies are second with a record of 25-13 (65.8%). The White Sox’ net profit in this spot is +22.1 net games and this is also best in the entire league. By running the SDQL text, you can see that they are perfect in this spot this season.
Finally, the Red Sox are 4-8 with Lester as a favorite of more than 140 when they won their last two games and 5-8 when Jon Lester starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent – including 0-3 if their opponent is at least 500 on the season.
The White Sox are loaded with line value at this price. They should be about a coin-toss to win and we’re getting plus-150!
FORECAST: Chicago 5 BOSTON 4
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Thanks for taking the time to read this. We are very proud of all the work we put into each game we release and we are proud of the 25 years of hard work that it took to get to this point. The database has just updated for 7/18 and I'm getting to work on today's games!!
Dr Meyer