Alright, I think I have extracted three games worth an investment -- A 2* and two 1*s. Here is one of the 1*s.
Kansas City +120 over MINNESOTA -- After dropping the opener of this four game set, the Twins have won two straight while never trailing. Minnesota has not been a good investment in this spot. The Twins are 10-21 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. On the contrary, the Royals are 8-3 as a road dog vs an AL team that has won at least their last two games.
The last time Bruce Chen started against the Twins, he was up against Liriano. Kansas City won 1-0. The Twins are not a revenge-minded team, going 3-17 vs an AL foe when seeking same-season revenge for a loss vs their opponent’s starting pitcher, including 0-4 this season.
Liriano is off a 4-1 win over the White Sox in which he went seven innings and allowed only one run on four hits. He should be vulnerable here. The Twins are 0-6 with Liriano when he is off a team win in a start in which he allowed six or fewer hits and threw 100+ pitches, losing by an average of 5.2 rpg. The SDQL is:
starter=Francisco Liriano and s:SHA<=6 and s:W and s:SPT>=100 and 20100919<=date
He has no quality starts since last June in this spot, going 0-3 while allowing an average of 4.33 runs in an average of 3.78 innings pitched with an average WHIP of 2.40. Ouch.
As bad as the Royals have been over the last six-plus seasons, they are the by far most profitable team in the majors on the road during the day in the last game of a series. Kansas City is 59-56 since 2007 in a day road series finale. The SDQL text is:
team=Royals and DAY and A and SG=SGS and season>=2007
The Royals have been an average of +150 on the moneyline in these 115 games, which is a LOT of profit. They were the underdog in 101 of the 115 games. They are one of a few teams in the entire league that are over 500 in this spot. This season is actually their best ever in this spot, going 8-3 so far during the day on the road in the last game of a series.
The Royals are at least a coin-flip here so they are worth a shot at +120.
FORECAST: Kansas City 6 MINNESOTA 2
Questions and comments welcome! Good Luck to All!!