I'm currently traveling -- attending a conference. Got up early this morning to handicap, but the internet is terrible slow and spotty. There's no way I can do a complete job of handicapping and I must pass.
Yesterday's triple-play on Toronto lost. It was interesting that the Jays opened +154 and closed +137, so I was not alone in thinking that the Jays were underpriced. Here is yesterday's write-up:
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In his last outing Jake Peavy had the responsibility of beating the Yankees in New York in the third game of a series in which the Sox won as a dog the first two. Jake pitched a complete game, did not allow a walk and struck out eleven, but the Sox lost 4-0. In Jake’s younger days, he might able to have a second strong start, but recently he has been vulnerable in this spot. Since the start of the 2011 season, the White Sox are 0-6 with Peavy at HOME when he is off a start in which he faced at least 27 batters and did not win by three-plus runs. The SDQL is:
starter=Jake Peavy and H and s:margin<3 and s:SHF>=27 and season>=2011
So, when Peavy faced 27-plus hitters and was not coasting with a big lead, the Sox are 0-6 since the start of the 2011 season. In his last two, he was minus-190 and minus 200 on the moneyline. Ouch.
As we saw yesterday, the Jays can be flat vs a team on a losing streak. However, they are very tough vs a team on a winning streak. Toronto is a very profitable 15-7 when playing a night game as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Going back further, we find that the Jays are a ridiculous 32-16 as a night road dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games. Are you kiddin’ me?! 32-16 as a NIGHT ROAD DOG? Indeed. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Blue Jays and NGT and AD and 3<=o:streak and 20040501<=date
No other team in the league is remotely close to the Blue Jays’ success in this situation. If we add the minor tightener that the Jays are facing an AL foe, like this:
team=Blue Jays and NGT and AD and 3<=o:streak and 20040501<=date and C
We see that they are an even better 31-12 (72%) and have reeled off ELEVEN straight wins. Remarkable. Each of their last six wins have been by multiple runs and their most recent outing, was a 5-0 win on the road vs the Angels in May.
Toronto was flat as a crepe yesterday, but here they should be back in form. The Jays are 51-29 at night after a night loss in which they used 5+ pitchers and a very profitable 29-27 as a 140+ dog when they are off a loss in which they never led.
The Jays are also terrific as a road dog in a series opener, especially if there are off a home loss. Toronto is 11-2 as a DOG in a road series opener when they are off a home loss. The SDQL text is:
team=BlueJays and AD and p:HL and SG=1 and date>=20080811
Note that the Jays are a perfect 6-0 in this spot since the start of the 2011 season.
Finally, the White Sox have lost Peavy’s last two starts and they are not a team that picks-up their starter in this spot. Chicago is 0-9 at HOME at night when they lost their starter’s last two starts and the starter allowed fewer than five runs in his last outing, as long as they are not a 200+ favorite. The SDQL text is:
team=White Sox and H and NGT and s:L and ss:L and s:SRA<5 and line>-200 and 20110601<=date
In each of their last four games in this spot, the Sox have managed only two runs.
Of course, this is baseball, so anything can happen. We cannot positively state that the Jays will win tonight. However, we are confident that they are the side on which to be when 100 will get you 154 (I got +154 at 5Dimes this morning and I felt guilty doing so -- like I was taking advantage of someone).
FORECAST: Toronto 4 CHICAGO 3
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I would make the same play again.
Back at it on Sunday!
Dr M.