Point Blank – March 21, Part II
The Tourney Journey #6 – What a difference a day makes (cue Sarah Vaughan or Dinah Washington)…The Special K almost got soggy…The Value of the Venues, for the Sunday round…Some Saturday Defense, "In the Sights"...
As part of appreciating Thursday’s opening round games, and that series of dramatic finishes, there was also the reality that some of the basketball was fingernails-on-chalkboard stuff, with as much of the drama being supplied by what some teams did wrong as what others did right. On Friday there was not nearly as much drama, nor surprises, with the favorites going 15-1 SU based on the line at tipoff (though counting either team as the “favorite” in Oregon/Oklahoma State provides the usual issues of market tracking).
The basketball flow itself was much different – after Thursday’s 16 games produced 128.4 points on 42.2 percent shooting, Friday brought 136.8 and 44.8 percent, some of that coming from big chalk (Wisconsin/Gonzaga/Duke) that executed well in overpowering weaker opponents. But while Friday lacked fireworks it did set the stage for some Sunday drama, including Wichita State finally getting a chance to take on Kansas, and a Michigan State/Virginia rematch from a thriller in the Sweet 16 last March.
Through two rounds it has been good news for the ACC in advancing all six teams, but note the 1-5 ATS, with only Duke getting the money vs. out-classed and worn down Robert Morris. The Pac 12 also kept all sides alive (4-0/3-1). Now let’s put the Friday night games under the microscope –
At Charlotte
DUKE 85 ROBERT MORRIS 56 – There was not much to see most of the way here, with Duke scoring easily against a smaller opponent that seemed happy to just be there, off of that opening win on Wednesday. But then came one of those moments that a veteran observer could not help but be alarmed by, especially as it threatened the wallet.
One of the steadiest edges out there through the years has been playing Mike Krzyzewski Under when he has a big halftime lead in these early tournament rounds. His focus is simply to win and move on, with clock management used to secure the victory, and also have his key cogs exerting as little energy as necessary. So with the halftime sitting at 42-25, and with 76 available for the second half, it was time to go the window with the concept again. The window is shrinking, of course, with 75 the closer, but it still lets enough breeze through.
As such, it was great to see the Blue Devils spreading the floor on offense and slowing it down right on cue, and as the final media time-out was called at 3:24 the pace was where it was hoped to be (after awhile, you will have a calculator in the back of your mind that quickly determines how many likely possessions are left, with one team keeping the ball for about 30 seconds or so each time). You can even visualize some of this off of the play-by-play –
5:12 – Justise Winslow rebound, 4:43 Winslow missed jumper (29 seconds)
4:37 – Rodney Pryor make, 4:05 Quinn Cook make (32 seconds)
And so forth. But then something happened that nearly took it all out of sequence – after Lucky Jones missed a jumper for the Colonials at 2:46, Marshall Plumlee got the rebound and whipped an outlet pass that went past midcourt to Amile Jefferson, who slammed a dunk at 2:42. That was not part of the plan, and it was something that I could not recall seeing from Duke in the second half of a one-sided tourney game. And on the next possession, which began after a make by Marcquise Reed at 2:19, the Blue Devils also scored in just 18 seconds, Jefferson again being the one.
Fortunately it settled back down – on the next to last offensive sequence the Blue Devils held it to the last second of the shot clock, before Grayson Allen missed a triple, and they controlled the ball for the final 50 ticks, getting their own rebound of a missed shot, and then a dribble out. It was a close shave that did not have to be, and perhaps offers a hint of doubt for the next time the situation presents itself.
SAN DIEGO STATE 76 ST. JOHN’S 64 – This box score is going to jump out at you a bit, with a struggling Aztec offense putting up points at a higher rate than expected (using the closing Side and Total as the projections, the call was 63.5 or 64), while also shooting 25-53 from the field and 9-22 beyond the arc. But there is some perspective required.
St. John’s was without Chris Obekpa inside, and not only is he arguably the nation’s best shot blocker, his absence literally leaves a hole in the middle. That was most evident in the regular season finale at Villanova, when the Wildcats shredded that defense for 105 points. So take the overall shooting with a grain of salt. Next you may want to get excited about Dwayne Polee’s 15 points, on 5-7 triples, as a sign that he is finally back to full health. But two of those treys were banked in, which a box score has no way of showing.
So how about this for the best stat – San Diego State shot 17-30 at the FT line. That is more in line with who the Aztecs are. It is always tempting to look to a great defensive team when taking double figures, especially one that is so well-coached and also manages tempo. But a crucial factor in that temptation vs. Duke on Saturday is that State simply may not be able to score enough points to hang around. Friday was not a “buy signal” for that offense, despite what the box score recorded.
At Columbus
OKLAHOMA 69 ALBANY 60 – The Sooners have been a bit of a disappointment this season in that they showed more potential on paper than they have on the court, and did not improve as the schedule progressed. And that has become an alarming pattern for recent Lon Kruger teams. Three years ago the Sooners lost in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, and did not advance to the post-season. Two years ago the Sooners lost in both the first round of both the conference tournament and the first round of the Big Dance. Then last March it was a repeat of that. Until beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 first round last Thursday, there had been a complete lack of tourney success from the current roster.
Friday night was more of the same in those regards – they never really exerted their will on the Great Danes, settling too often for 3-point shots (24 of their 57 attempts), while also allowing Albany to register 15 assists vs. only seven turnovers. They won because they were simply that much better than their opponent, and not because the played particularly well.
DAYTON 66 PROVIDENCE 53 – The Flyers are a handicapping challenge right now. They absolutely did not deserve to be playing a home game on Wednesday. They absolutely did not deserve to be at this venue, about 75 miles from campus on Friday. And they were also given the maximum amount of recuperation time (contrast that to Ole Miss, which won on Tuesday night, and then got thrown into a longer trip for a Thursday afternoon tipoff). Once the game began there were also those favorable early whistles vs. Providence, with Kris Dunn having to sit down with his second foul at 17:12. There was a FT edge of 14-1 in the first half, and later an unnecessary late technical on the Friar bench helped to break it open late.
But while there is a natural logic in wanting to keep the Dayton power rating in check because of those advantages, there is the fact that this team has a lot of adrenaline going right now, and will also have what will be sound like a home court on Sunday (from Archie Miller on that crowd – “It was powerful. Our fans continue to be the front and center stage right now. In Columbus, I had a hunch it was going to be like this.”) There may not be much depth at all, but consider this - Scoochie Smith, Dyshawn Pierre, Kendall Pollard, Jordan Sibert, Kyle Davis and Bobby Wehrli were all a part of that Elite Eight run last March, when they had to win the first three games outright as underdogs to get there. That collective group now has five tourney wins under their belts the past two seasons, and their confidence against an Oklahoma team that lacks such a resume could be a legitimate Sunday factor.
At Omaha
OREGON 79 OKLAHOMA STATE 73 – This result is a difficult one to track because both sides were favored during the week, and it raises the usual notions about how managing databases can be difficult. But that debate will not be solved here, nor likely any time soon. What mattered on the court was that Joseph Young took a while to get untracked, but once he did it turned the game around.
At the 4:30 mark in the first half Oklahoma State was leading 36-28, and Young was 0-3 from the field with two turnovers. But then he came up with a steal and pulled up to drain a triple, and the entire energy of the proceedings changed. He scored 15 points over the final 4:14 of the half, sending the Ducks to the locker room ahead 43-39, and went on to score 27 for the game. Oregon shot 54.7 for the night, scoring at a 1.12 PPP clip, with Elgin Cook adding 18 and Dillon Brooks 17. It is an attack that brings a lot of athleticism and is difficult to guard, with their rating now up to #15 in the nation in offensive efficiency. That matters, because come Sunday they are going to need to score to compete. And perhaps they will be able to.
For the second year in a row, Dana Altman and his team run into Wisconsin in the second round, and despite losing 85-77 in a pro-Badger setting in Milwaukee last March, there may not be any intimidation – they actually led that game by 12 at halftime, and were still up 75-74 until Ben Brust hit a triple for Wiscy at 1:09. The Badgers did not have an answer for Young, who had an efficient 29 points on only 19 FG attempts and six FTs. They still may not. But can the Ducks come up with stops?
WISCONSIN 86 COASTAL CAROLINA 72 – Coastal Carolina sure couldn’t. Wisconsin’s offense was a well-oiled machine, with an off-the-charts 1.36 PPI. And in truth it was even better than that – while the nine turnovers might look a bit high for this bunch, three of them came from reserves Vitto Brown, Riley Dearing and Zak Showalter in the final minute of play (take those out and the PPI elevates to 1.42).
But the issue for Bo Ryan from this stage forward is not that efficient offense, #1 in the nation this season, nor the fact that the defense is fundamentally sound and does a great job of limiting opposing FG attempts. It will instead be how good the defense is when they have to get out and guard elite opponents one-on-one. The Big 10 was not a great offensive league this season, and while that 80-70 loss to Duke in Madison was a long time ago, arguably the most impressive statistic for any single NCAA game this season was the 1.30 PPP the Blue Devils put up that night, shooting a sizzling 65.2 percent. Oregon is not quite in that class, but as noted above the Ducks can make things happen with the ball, and this provides some valuable Eye Test moments in terms of evaluating Wiscy beyond Sunday.
At Seattle
IOWA 83 DAVIDSON 52 – Davidson brought shooters and ball handlers, and that terrific Bob McKillop playbook. What the Wildcats could not bring were the size and defense to handle this class of opponent, and actually one that did not mind their offensive tactics at all – the Hawkeyes grew well-accustomed to guarding deep into the shot clock through the Big 10 battles this season, and were patient and focused defensively.
In some ways Iowa had been the Big 10 version of Oklahoma – a team that showed the potential to get to a higher level, but never found a consistency, and did not improve as the schedule progressed. But the size advantage vs. a Davidson defense that was both small and slow made this one easy – the Hawkeyes converted 29-53 on their 2-point attempts, and won the boards 46-30. Was this a coming-out party for an under-achieving squad, or merely a favorable matchup? The answer to that matters, because it is about to get a whole lot tougher, and for a program that had not won an NCAA game since 2001, it becomes both mental and physical on Sunday.
GONZAGA 86 NORTH DAKOTA STATE 76 – This was not an easy one to grade, for while Gonzaga was never really threatened, the Bulldogs also did not put the Bison away, having a particularly bad night on defense, despite the crowd being behind them (allowed 53.7 percent shooting). Some of that was an awkward matchup against Dexter Werner, but some is also the fact that the Gonzaga defensive interior is over-rated, a group that plays bigger on paper than on the court, which will matter when the competition picks up.
Offensively it was an easy evening for Mark Few’s team, which showcased that inside-out balance and steady handling that makes them so efficient – neither Kevin Pangos nor Gary Bell had a turnover in 73 combined minutes. But did Pango really need to play all 40?
Now on to Sunday, and what will sound like a Bulldog home game vs. Iowa. That may rattle the Hawkeye nerves a big, and while they will be playing on a tourney weekend for the first time in their careers, this will be the seventh straight season that Gonzaga has made it to that second game. That can matter.
Courting Advantages…
As noted in the opening of this column, the offensive level of play picked up significantly over Thursday’s rather stodgy flows, and the rims in Omaha turned out to be particularly friendly.
Total Points FG% 3P% FT%
Charlotte 128.9 140 45.2 34.6 67.4
Columbus 133.5 124 40.9 36.3 67.5
Omaha 135.8 149.5 46.5 41.3 79.1
Seattle 127.3 133.5 46.1 36.5 68.4
In the Sights…
I am already on record from the Pregame First Preview Friday radio show in suggesting #524 Arizona/Ohio State Under this afternoon, and now that the 139’s are appearing again after a short absence, it holds up. You can click to the audio here –
but there are a couple of keys. First is that while Arizona is outstanding on the boards and on defense, the Wildcats are not going to score easily when facing size and athleticism. The offense is good, not great. Second is that the Arizona defense is great, and I believe will bring a special focus off of Thursday’s sloppy showing, one that you can read about by linking to THE TOURNEY JOURNEY #3 at the bottom of the page.
Ohio State does not have a go-to scorer beyond DeAngelo Russell, and the Wildcats have counters for him. That means that it will take the Buckeyes deep into the clock to find good looks, which also helps to slow things down. Both from an efficiency and a pace standpoint, the Ohio State offense should struggle, and if the game line is correct (I believe it is), the margin could be comfortable enough to lessen fears of a late-game scramble.
Dining Through the Dance, Friday Evening Session…
Roasted Duck Fried Rice (extra spicy, paired to a New Belgium Slow Ride)
Courtesy of Chada (3400 South Jones), the official NCAA First-Round caterers of Point Blank. Look, if you want to stay fresh and sharp through long and frenzied days, eating properly matters.
The Tourney Journey Series -
Wednesday – The Tourney Journey, #1 (The Meek shall inherit Kentucky)…The Oddsmakers were “Totally” wrong in the NIT…Taking advantage of Silly Seeding Suppositions…
Thursday – The Tourney Journey #2 (cue Dorothy, “There’s no place like home”)…Aiming for the calm, during the storm…It was more bad North Florida Defense than great Robert Morris offense…The sad saga of a team snubbed…
Friday – The Tourney Journey #3 – Dog Day Afternoon…There are no cures for hangovers…The Big 12, wasn’t…
Friday – The Tourney Journey #4 – The Gangs that Couldn’t Shoot Straight (too many of the thrills, came from spills)…The Values of the Venues…
Saturday – The Tourney Journey #5 – Some familiar Old Faces take a bow (perhaps the last time this season, for a few)…The #12’s went 0-4 vs. the #5’s (and the cow jumped over the moon)…A little Pete Townshend is never a bad thing…