Point Blank – March 21, Part I
The Tourney Journey #5 – Some familiar Old Faces take a bow (perhaps the last time this season, for a few)…The #12’s went 0-4 vs. the #5’s (and the cow jumped over the moon)…A little Pete Townshend is never a bad thing...
After Thursday’s frenzied sessions, the Friday afternoon round presented a scaling down of the music – instead of a Gospel choir belting it out there were the rather sedate rhythms of some gregorian chants. And why not, with some veteran monks like Tom Izzo, Bob Huggins, Bill Self and Rick Pitino involved in the proceedings, bringing a consistency that was missing on Thursday. They have been here before and they all moved on, which could work out well for us in the next stage or two, because a few of them bring less than the past reputations of their programs this time. Now let’s see how the markets react.
There was still some pointspread drama, with half of the eight betting outcomes in doubt to the final possessions, and even Cal-Irivine stepped up to be leading Louisville in the final minute, although the Anteaters only required a hurdle, rather than a pole vault, to be there. Meanwhile those #12 seeds that far too much was written about this week? An 0-4 SU collar. As noted here before the Dancing began, there was never a degree of appreciable logic to those short-term results, and absolutely no connection between any of them and the future. But a lot of folks in the Sports Mediaverse do have space to fill on weeks like this.
And just because it matters to those of us who are glued to the proceedings until the nets are finally cut down in Indianapolis, isn’t it a genuine treat to have GM use “Eminence Front” as the accompaniment on a commercial? After years of dreading having to wade through so many lame pitches, with the letters on the mute button almost wearing off of the remote control, there is finally one in which the volume gets turned up a bit.
Now to the Friday afternoon action (back with the night recaps on Saturday morning)…
At Charlotte
MICHIGAN STATE 70 GEORGIA 63 – Both teams were who they were/are, which makes it perhaps fitting that the final pointspread outcome came down to the last possession, even though the Spartans were in control for much of the afternoon. What was Georgia? A mediocre team from a conference that got buoyed by the presence of Kentucky – take the Wildcat power rating away, and where does the SEC fall to? The Bulldogs made a good account of themselves, and after beating Kentucky on the boards twice this season they also topped the Spartans 43-35. Without taking the time to look it up (just too much going on), I have to wonder if that was the biggest margin a Tom Izzo team was ever out-rebounded by in an NCAA tourney opener.
So who are these Spartans? A team that was balanced and savvy enough to have built a 12-point lead with 2:00 remaining, but one that lacks the closing kick of previous editions, which was how 64-52 became 66-63 at 0:21, before Denzel Valentine closed it out with a 4-4 at the FT line. Until those makes by Valentine it had only been 7-15 from the stripe, but as bad as that looks, it is one of the defining elements of this team – they are #338 in the nation at 63.1 percent.
Here is the issue come Sunday – while Friday’s offensive balance showed the usual Sparty teamwork, might Izzo have been happier if someone had stepped up and scored 25? But that scorer is not on this roster. No State player averaged a full 15.0 per game this season, and there just is not a go-to guy against an elite defense. Which is just what they are about to run into…
VIRGINIA 79 BELMONT 67 – This provided far more entertainment value than the final score can indicate, a terrific chess match between the Bruins, and some of the nation’s best offensive designs under Rick Byrd, against Tony Bennett and those brilliant Virginia defensive tactics. And in truth, Byrd may well have won that matchup – his team generated 1.02 PPP against a defense that rates #2 in the nation at 86.0 this season. It was enough for Byrd’s team to have be trailing only 62-60 with 4:30 remaining, making a spirited run after falling down by 14.
But the ultimate problem for Belmont was not breaking through that defensive wall, it was finding a way to get stops. The Cavalier offense has not been appreciated for just how efficient they have produced, with a #25 in adjusted efficiency not being recognized because their side of the scoreboard had not topped 75 in regulation since calendar 2014. Until Friday. With Justin Anderson looking much more confident with the ball than he did in the ACC Tournament (15 points in 26 minutes), the Cavaliers brought too much for this class to handle.
Did the Bruins expose a weakness in the Virginia defense? Not really. They were simply a tremendous team from beyond the arc, and were able to step a bit beyond where Bennett’s defenders usually draws their (pack-) line in the sand. By having to step out against 25 triples they were spread out a bit, which opened some opportunities inside, but there just are not many teams in the bracket that can challenge that way (ironically, as the quality of the athletes increases into the next rounds, the shooting necessarily does not).
Now for a lot of Sunday drama vs. Michigan State, which beat the Cavaliers 61-59 in the Sweet 16 round in Madison Square Garden LY. Many of the faces in the uniforms have changed from that night, but not the scowls of the guys on the sidelines, which creates a level of drama this stage of the tournament does not often bring.
At Columbus
WEST VIRGINIA 68 BUFFALO 62 – Few teams have been a topic of conversation in this column the last few months more than the Mountaineers, with Bob Huggins changing his stripes a bit because of a deep and athletic roster, installing a tenacious full-court pressing style. It brought the entire repertoire of a good old western movie – The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly were all in evidence at various times. That mixture was created because Huggins simply took his usual physical half-court defensive style and extended it, which has demoralized some opponents, led to foul-fests on certain nights (they were #351 in the nation in ratio of free throw attempts allowed vs. FG attempts), but also left the Mountaineers open to exploitation when opponents got their second look, and learned how to attack it.
All of that left for confusion heading into this matchup, and I was only a spectator, hoping to utilize the Eye Test opportunity to spot something that can be used later. And what was found? Pretty much what was known already. Despite never trailing in the game, and only being tied once at 62-62, it was still a Mountaineer foul festival, with Buffalo getting into the double bonus in each half. But the Bulls left some of those opportunities on the table (64 percent at the line), while also turning the ball over 17 times, and when the final counting was done, they came up short, despite playing with a lot of energy and confidence.
For WVU it was a major positive to have Juwan Staten back to full health, with 15 points and seven assists over 33 minutes, and his leadership is badly needed to keep his talented, but less experienced, back-court teammates under control. That will certainly matter as the competition steps up, and his head-to-head with Melo Trimble is a nice “game inside the game” for Sunday. Considering how much better the Mountaineer presses have been on the first look against an opponent, it becomes time to consider how only getting one day to prepare will impact Mark Turgeon and Maryland.
MARYLAND 65 VALPARAISO 62 – The Terrapins barely advanced their way into Sunday’s matchup, in a matchup that brought some of the elements of Belmont/Virginia – they had to get out on 3-point shooters much more than they were accustomed to, and for much of the afternoon were a step late in their rotations. The Crusaders knocked down 12-26 from long range, while holding their own on the boards (33-32 Terps), and having two fewer turnovers. But while they were fine against the Maryland athleticism and quickness on the perimeter, they were badly bothered around the basket, with that 8-29 on 2-point attempts the key factor it determining the outcome.
Maryland was not particularly great at anything, outside of forcing those misses inside the arc, keyed by five blocks from Damonte Dodd. Trimble warmed up for his battle vs. Staton with 14 points and 10 rebounds, was 3-8 from the field, and only dished three assists for an offense that had just nine. Dez Wells continued his strong play down the stretch with 14 points and three assists of his own, although he did have four turnovers. And that leads to one of the prime issues for Sunday – can the secondary Terrapin ball-handlers take enough of the pressure off of Trimble. First there can be a wearing down factor for a freshman PG that faced few extended defenses in the Big 10. But perhaps even more important is that West Virgnia will trap often in the back-court, and force him to give up the ball. Then what? The Terrapins were a minus in assist to turnover ratio for the season, and even fell short in that category vs. Valpo on Friday.
At Omaha
KANSAS 75 NEW MEXICO STATE 56 - Almost like clockwork, there was money Friday morning against Kansas, some of that the residual of the Big 12 looking so bad on Thursday. And if you were one of a member of that crowd, shame on you – there was just far too much Sports Mediaverse hysterics based on a small sampling of games. So the Jayhawks dropped from -11.5 to -9.5 over the course of the week, yet did not get challenged much by the Aggies.
Having said that, be careful with Kansas going forward. Friday was mostly about terrific perimeter shooting vs. a disorganized defense, with 9-13 triples going through the nets. Because the current edition of the WAC is so bad, New Mexico State had gone through over two months without facing much competition, and that brought some culture shock when it became time to step up in class. But note what the Aggies did through effort – enough scrapping on the offensive boards, and also a +3 in turnovers, to have had six more FG attempts and one more FT try. It was the shooting gap that created the margin, and not a Kansas control of the floor game.
It is that floor game this season that has been among the weakest of Self’s tenure in Lawrence. And it is about to get challenged…
WICHITA STATE 81 INDIANA 76 – Kansas got a big margin in the Omaha opener because of how one-sided the perimeter shooting was. Which becomes an intriguing way to take the first look at this one – the Hoosiers knocked down 11-22 triples, while the Shockers were only 2-13, yet Wichita State won anyway. And it was because of the “floor game”, a part of basketball that Gregg Marshall’s team is awfully good at. With the experience that Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker have working together in the back-court (69 consecutive starts over the past two seasons), it is a combination of the talent and the playbook blending marvelously.
Indiana threw some heavy punches. The Hoosiers are not easy to guard on the first look because of their perimeter quickness, and ability to create open 3-point looks out of dribble penetration. That part of the equation could not have worked out much better for Tom Crean. But when offensive rebounds, turnovers, and other floor game elements are added up, Wichita had two more FG attempts and 14 more tries at the FT line. That is what the Shockers do – entering the tourney it was 205 more FG attempts and 62 more FTs than their opponents. Play smart and sound and you get more chances, and those chances can overcome a game in which the perimeter shots are falling for the other side.
Now the question becomes whether the good Kansas shooting, and seemingly bad day from the Shocker defense, leads to a matchup issue for Sunday. That is indeed worth some attention – for the season the Jayhawks were #31 in the nation in adjusted 3-point percentage, while the Wichita defense was down at #218. That may only be a fly in the ointment, however, in a game in which the Shockers bring a much tighter chemistry, which can matter over the course of 40 (at least) intense minutes.
At Seattle
NORTHERN IOWA 71 WYOMING 54 – I have Northern Iowa going a long way in what is left of my largely-shredded bracket, and the Panthers showcased the reasons for that confidence in a clean and methodical win. Five players scored in double figures; they controlled the boards 29-22; there were only seven UNI turnovers; and they forced the Cowboys to give it up on 22.1 percent of their possessions, which is significant in a slow-tempo game.
It was not that Wyoming played poorly – the Cowboys got solid games out of Larry Nance and Charles Hankerson, and actually shot better than would have been expected from 3-point range (9-22), yet lost by 17 anyway. That tells you much about the other side, and Ben Jacobson marches his team on with only one player needing to go more than 28 minutes, and nine playing at least 16. He has been to the Sweet 16 before, and that depth could be a big part of why he may be on his way again.
LOUISVILLE 57 CAL-IRVINE 55 – Welcome to Louisville, post-Chris Jones edition, because what was there yesterday afternoon is pretty much what there is. Even with Jones the Cardinals were not going to accomplish what we have seen from Rick Pitino teams in that cycle from from Ground Hog’s Day forward in the past, but the uniforms have not changed, and the betting markets do struggle to discard certain memories.
The reality is that Louisville has gone 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS in the games Jones has not played, and note that three of those four wins came by two points or less. Give them some credit for beating Virginia, reduced because the Cavaliers were without Justin Anderson, and also a credit for dominating Florida State on the road. But attach little to beating Georgia Tech by one (the Yellow Jackets led by 13 midway through the second half), or this win over UC-Irvine. And double-figure losses at Syracuse, at home vs. Notre Dame, and vs. North Carolina in the ACC tourney, showed their limitations.
Notice in the Northern Iowa breakdown above there was a take on how deep Jacobson’s rotation is. Once upon a time that was Louisville, come March. But the Cardinals got only two points and two rebounds from their bench on Friday. They never had any control of the proceedings, vs. what could have been a vulnerable underdog. - just consider how bad the Anteater bench was, a 2-11 from the field, with six turnovers vs. only two assists. They had a lot of players not ready to step up to this level, yet still led 55-53 with 1:00 remaining.
Dining Through the Dance, Friday Afternoon Session…
Kua Kling (stir fried ground pork with curry paste and whole peppercorns)
Courtesy of Chada (3400 South Jones), the official NCAA First-Round caterers of Point Blank. Look, if you want to stay fresh and sharp through long and frenzied days, eating properly matters.
The Tourney Journey Series -
Wednesday – The Tourney Journey, #1 (The Meek shall inherit Kentucky)…The Oddsmakers were “Totally” wrong in the NIT…Taking advantage of Silly Seeding Suppositions…
Thursday – The Tourney Journey #2 (cue Dorothy, “There’s no place like home”)…Aiming for the calm, during the storm…It was more bad North Florida Defense than great Robert Morris offense…The sad saga of a team snubbed…
Friday – The Tourney Journey #3 – Dog Day Afternoon…There are no cures for hangovers…The Big 12, wasn’t…