Point Blank – February 11
You need to look at all of Justin Anderson’s numbers…The Thunder/Grizzlies revenge motive shifts…Some Divine Providence…When the Beavers don’t have their dam…How does Kansas State score?
Virginia has been very good this season, so much so that when doing the Pregame First Preview radio show with Scott Spreitzer last Friday, there was a mutual agreement that we would each relish the chance to bet them against Kentucky right then (at the proper value point, of course). Part of that stems from a mismatch in basketball IQ between a veteran team and one that is still quite nascent, but also because the recent schedule has been toughening up the Cavaliers, while the Wildcats have been in a lull for several weeks because the SEC is not good enough to force them to grow (seriously, this could be a one-bid conference come March).
But that was if Justin Anderson was playing. He won’t, for a while; figure the first round of the Big Dance at the earliest. And for now you may want to make sure that you look at all of his numbers, in terms of understanding just how good he is, and how much he means to the Virginia chemistry. His 13.4 ppg may not jump off the page, but it should, considering the Cavalier tempo (#350, only American U. has played slower). How about shooting 48.4 percent from 3-point range, and 80.6 at the FT line? He has been extremely efficient on offense, but that may be less than half of the story – there have also been 3.4 rpg, 44 assists, 16 steals and 12 blocked shots. Again, each of those could be multiplied because of the pace involved. Anderson does so many things right on the court, and is conserved a mid-first rounder, should he opt for the NBA draft this year.
So he will be missed, and possibly by more than the markets will perceive. Virginia HC Tony Bennett certainly gets it – “We don’t have a replica of him with his passion, his shot-blocking, all the things you can catalogue. We have to look to replace him in different ways.” This matters, because while the rest of the team is good without Anderson, it is not great. He helped to make others better, an important subtlety when altering a power rating.
Was there better defense in this NBA season…
…than the 85-74 Memphis win over Oklahoma City 12 days ago? The Thunder were held to 81.5 PP100, never scoring more than 22 points in any quarter, and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were each held to an identical 5-16 from the field. The Grizzlies brought a major grudge that night, their first crack at OKC’s “A” team since that bitter loss in a seven-game playoff series last spring (a win at Oklahoma City in November brought no such satisfaction, since neither Durant nor Westbrook played), and both their effort and their tactics were sublime. At tipoff, the markets were projecting the Thunder to score 96.5 points; at their rate of production they would have needed nearly 15 more game minutes to get there.
That puts tonight’s rematch into focus as a prime “Watch and Learn” opportunity. Two nights before that first encounter there was a take here on how legit Memphis was becoming after the addition of Jeff Green, one of those puzzle pieces like Justin Anderson above that can mean more than any individual statistic can show. In this case it is not so much Green’s abilities, but rather that he filled a particular Memphis void. Since then the Grizzlies have done nothing to dampen the enthusiasm that was expressed, and while catching Golden State will not be easy, the #2 seed in the Western Conference is firmly in their grasp as the All Star break approaches.
Tonight the focus is more on the Thunder. Now they are the ones that have the spark of revenge to light a fire, but there is a legitimate question when it comes to grit – can they get “down and dirty” to win a low tempo game against this class of opponent? After being involved in games that played to 229, 239 and 238 in their last three outings, can they be effective when having to shift to a lower gear, especially without Steven Adams to muck around a bit in the paint? There is a lot to learn from this one, which means prime viewing, even if there is not a ticket in play.
Updating Providence
On Monday there was a take on the Providence/Xavier result, and how to grade that game based on the major run that took place when the Friars were shaken, as HC Ed Cooley had to walk off the floor. And while that sequence remains a conundrum to pin down, there is some terrific news – Cooley is feeling fine. Here is his official statement, released by the University yesterday, and consider all to be normal as you break down tonight’s game -
“I want to thank everyone for their tremendous support over the last few days. I feel fortunate to be at an institution and in a position that allows me to be surrounded by so many great people. I had a tough day on Saturday. I was exhausted and dehydrated and did not feel well when I left the court. The medical personnel that treated me in Cincinnati did an amazing job. I feel great today and I am looking forward to coaching on Wednesday versus Villanova at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center.”
Understanding Oregon State/UCLA, Round II
The first go-round between the Beavers and Bruins was put “In the Sights”, a favorable matchup for Wayne Tinkle’s zone defense to do its thing in front of a passionate crowd in Corvallis, one that absolutely aids that defense. And OSU controlled the flow in a 66-55 win, holding UCLA to 86.3 PP100. But tonight may be a different matter entirely, so if you cashed a ticket the first time around, put that outcome outside of the range of your rear-view mirror. The Beavers, you see, are not all that talented, and have been getting it done largely through a defense that opponents were struggling to match up to on the first look, especially on their court. But now UCLA has a better idea what is coming, and it is Pauley Pavilion.
This will only be the second road sequence of the Pac 12 season in which the Beavers have played against teams that they have already beaten at home. The other was their trip to face the Arizona schools two weeks ago, and the difference was most pronounced –
Arizona St Arizona
Home Score 55-47 58-56
Home ATS +7 +12
Away Score 55-73 34-57
Away ATS -11 -4.5
That is quite a difference, and far more than the basic math models are going to program into their Home/Away line adjustments. And note that while the offense could statistically look like the biggest culprit in those gaps, a big part of their offensive production comes from what the defense can create. When teams have a chance to game plan for those zone looks, like Steve Alford and the Bruins get to do for tonight, the effectiveness can be significantly lessened. But there is also more to it than that – Oregon State does not bode up well as a road team in general. The Beavers do not have a senior in the rotation, and depth is a significant problem – there are only seven players in the rotation, with Gary Payton II averaging 37.6 minutes in Pac 12 play, and Malcolm Duvivier 36.4. That can not help but become a factor over the second half of conference play, and with television making this a quicker turnaround than usual (Sunday-Wednesday, instead of Saturday-Thursday), it could come into play tonight.
In the Sights…
It takes a significant focus on the complexities of sport to find the kind of edges needed to win over the long haul. Yet sometimes there are quite simple equations to solve, like the one when #735 Kansas State/#736 West Virginia meet tonight. I can’t find Wildcat points.
To say that State struggled in the first go-round vs. that intense Bob Huggins defense would be an understatement – in losing 65-59 in Manhattan it was an anemic 77.0 PP100, with more turnovers (22) than FGs (18). And that was with Marcus Foster scoring 15 points in his 30 minutes. Both Foster and Malek Harris have been suspended since then, and the offense slogged to an inept 47 points in getting hammered by 17 at Texas Tech (to lose that badly to the Red Raiders is not easy), before following that up by shooting just 31.9 percent in falling 61-57 to Texas on Saturday. For perspective, the Tech defense rates dead last in Big 12 play in PP100, and Texas is #8 (Iowa State sits in between). So if State struggled so badly vs. the Mountaineers with Foster and Harris, and has only averaged 52 ppg in the two games without him, despite facing two of the conferences weakest defenses, where do their points come from tonight?
The current trading is projecting a result in the 72.5-62 range, and it is difficult to find the Wildcats providing their share of that, while the Mountaineers would be more than happy to just grind, with a major showdown at Iowa State on national television coming up on Saturday. Look for another stodgy game between these two, and one that should not be close enough in the end-game to worry about any scrambling. Not pretty to watch, but bringing the Under value to be in play.
This Week at Point Blank
Monday – What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five
Tuesday – On using the Brake, before the Break…A coach takes a stand (and some falls) at Mizzou…The Clipper scoreboard was not as good as it looked…Will the Padres, or those that back them, get their money’s worth?