Point Blank – February 9
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five
The Weekend that was on the NCAA and NBA hardwoods, and some key handicapping factors that you can incorporate into your own portfolio, in order to pick up major edges in the games to come…
Item: What now, for the Clippers (Spencer Hawes got one rebound in 35:26...)
There was a significant statement made by both the oddsmakers and the betting markets when it became official that Blake Griffin would not play for the Clippers on Sunday, with the early -3.5 closing at -7.5, and a 210.5 closing at 207. The statement on the court was also a pronounced one, with L.A. being drilled 131-108 on the scoreboard, getting nearly doubled on the boards (54-29), while allowing the Thunder to shoot 52.3 percent from the field. And just think about what it might have been, with Doc Rivers playing the first six guys in his rotation for 198 minutes (J. J. Redick was not available), compared to just 130 for the Thunder, including the Durant/Westbrook combo only playing 61 (figure Steven Adams to have played 10-12 more minutes had he not injured his right hand). The Clippers did not wave a white flag; they were genuinely trying with the available cast.
But first, a little added perspective. Rivers did not have a well-oiled machine in which a key cog needed to be replaced; he instead had one that entered the game on an ugly 0-3 SU and ATS run, unable to beat struggling Brooklyn SU, losing by far worse than the 105-94 final at Cleveland (down 32 in the fourth), and even with Griffin they were whipped badly on the boards at Toronto on Friday, while allowing 53.3 percent shooting. So this is not just a case of replacing their front-court star, but also of regaining a swagger that was only evident one time on their road trip, that resounding win at San Antonio that now seems to out of place in the charts. And tonight they have to do it in Dallas to end an exhausting schedule cycle, which really makes the decision to play the bench so little on Sunday a question mark.
As for Griffin, the Clippers do not have much experience at all at playing without him – Sunday marked only the fifth game since the beginning of 2010-11 that he was not available. There was a big opening for Spencer Hawes, who clocked a 35:26 of court time that was more than 10 minutes above his previous high, but Hawes only managed one rebound in that span. One, for a guy that is listed at 7-1/245. It is almost a metaphysical impossibility to be that big, and to be on the court that long, and have the ball only carom to your hands once. Glen Davis? He just is not useful for anything other than short stints, and his back issues muddle his availability. Rivers does not have any kind of plug-and-play option either for the quality of Griffin, or for the unique things that he could do at his position. For most of Sunday’s loss Hedo Turkoglu was the back-up center. Let that sink in.
As for Griffin’s time-table, it is not easy to narrow down. The speculations has varied wildly, from three to six weeks, because of the nature of staph infections, so let this from Rivers be the guide – “Everybody’s body is do different with infections. All infections are different. They’re not even sure what antibiotics they’ll give him yet. Could be out for a while.” In terms of adjusting your futures projections, note that seven of the next eight games come against teams that will make the playoffs. There is going to be plenty of impact here.
Item: On grading Providence/Xavier, and what happens next for the Friars
Ed Cooley is one of the truly good guys in sports. He is a terrific fit at Providence, and this could be one of those great Program/Coach marriages that could have him heading the Friars for the remainder of his coaching days, which are hopefully numerous, and filled with good health. It also means that we will all be in the process of evaluating Cooley and his team for a long time, which brings us to the delicate matter of grading Xavier’s 78-69 win on Saturday.
To set the stage, Providence was leading 42-34 early the second half, when Cooley left the bench on a dead-ball and headed towards an exit, before he was accompanied by his wife, and AD Bob Driscoll, to a local hospital. He remained there overnight, while the team traveled back to Providence, but he was released on Sunday and returned home.
First, the evaluation issue. The players did not have any chance to know what had happened to their HC, and it seemed to deliver quite a punch – there was an immediate 18-2 Xavier run, and from the time Cooley left the Musketeers won the remainder of the game 44-27. That is quite a turnaround. Assistant HC Andre LaFleuer, who took over in Cooley’s absence, and called two time-outs in that 18-2 burst, but could not settle his team down. Eventually he did – the Friars fought back from 56-47 down to tie the game at both 62 and 64, before seeming to turn out of gas, only making on FG over the final 6:30.
For most of the betting world, that game goes into the data-base as any other, with all statistics being registered as though it were a typical 40 minutes in the Big East. You should not do that. An * is required. As for going forward, the issue becomes what is the immediate impact. The Friars did not practice on Sunday, but have said that was the plan all along. Now there will be two days to prepare for Villanova, and the question becomes whether this cycle will have shaken the team a little, or that by today’s practice it really is “business as usual”, perhaps with an extra bounce in their step now because they know that they coach is OK. I will be looking for as much follow-up as possible on that over the next two days (for now, it is uncertain as to whether Cooley will be at the Monday practice), and if something useful is found will post it on Wednesday.
Item: A closer look at Duke’s Saturday first-half run (as Okafor watched…)
Notre Dame is really good. The Fighting Irish are well-coached, and bring the talent and experience to get as far as the Elite Eight. Yet on Saturday they were on the wrong side of one of the greatest runs not only in College Basketball history, but among those in any sport – that 43-7 Duke first-half surge, spanning around 14:00 of court time. It was stunning enough on the surface, until you break it down even more.
Duke was already playing without Rasheed Sulaimon, who had been dismissed on January 29. And in a span of 16 seconds, just before the second media time-out, the Blue Devils suffered what would ordinarily be thought to be their worst possible scenario – Jhalil Okaor picked up two fouls, and would not see the court in the final 11:57 off the half. Yet through the stretch that he sat out, it was a 33-15 Duke domination, beginning with a 26-4 burst. Pro-rate the offensive production over that period, and it would be the equivalent of the Blue Devils scoring 111 points in a game. Without Okafor.
I have never seen an extended stretch of better basketball than that run. The fact that it came largely without Okafor could make it a “coming of age” for others in that young cast – they know now that they can make plays without their best player on the floor, and pay particularly close attention to how the defense ramped up its intensity on the perimeter through that stretch – that had been the team’s weakness for much of this season. So do not just do a cursory glance of the box score, which will still show Okafor as the leading scorer with 20 points. Check the terrific line across the board from Justise Winslow – 19 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. The 12 points and seven assists from Tyus Jones. The 17 points off the bench from Matt Jones. Those are not role players, they are big-time talents, but they do not always get a chance to stretch out their legs because of Okafor’s impact. It is worth watching how the confidence gained from Saturday carries forward, and with the national cameras being set up at Florida State tonight, that body language will be something for the Eye Test to focus on. The natural handicapping tendency might be to anticipate a letdown off of a major revenge win; I am not sure the logic applies for these particular circumstances.
Item: Sometimes it Takes Two to make a Trend (neither the 76ers, nor their better opponents, have been in any hurry lately)
Those that have been reading faithfully along here since the start of football season are aware of the distaste for many of the trends that floating around daily in the handicapping processes. No need for major re-hashing on that front, except to once again state that individual team patterns are not a short-cut for success, unless there is an over-riding logic that is dictating those patterns. Many times it is merely “noise”. Sometimes that logic is genuinely there, however, and it matters most when the it stems from the involvement of both teams in a given equation. As such, welcome to the current Philadelphia run of playing 11-2 to the Under when in the role of a double-figure underdog, since the calendar turned to 2015. The underlying logic fits well (literally), and there has been significant enough market error to show that the run was more substantial than merely some rolls of basketball dice – those 13 games played Under by a collective 107 points, or 8.4 per result.
Part I of the logic comes from the opposition. Once teams pass through the Holidays, there is a bit of a “dog day” approach until the All Star break, with the schedule becoming a grind. For the better teams, a chance to play Philadelphia means an opportunity to back off the throttle, slowing the pace down and not using the key players any more than is necessary. It is strictly win-and-move-on time. As such, note that the two games that did go Over did not necessarily break the pattern. The 76ers were a gassed team at the end of a long road trip when they were dumped 127-91 against the Clippers, but that was not L.A. pouring it on (Griffin only had 15 points and two rebounds), it was the bench players combining to knock down eight triples. The other Over was by just a point, a 107-89 Detroit win that closed at 195, back when the Pistons were in the midst of their post-Josh Smith momentum, and were enjoying victory so much that there were no thoughts of slowing down.
But the 76ers themselves are also taking part in this. Despite shortcomings in talent they have not lacked in competitive drive, and it has come together to the point at which they have won eight games since the calendar turned to 2015. Those games played 6-2 to the Under. Some of that is indeed reducing possessions to have a better opportunity to compete, but some is also a defense that continues to improve – Philadelphia is now #12 on the PP100 charts, tied with Chicago at 102.1. The Sixers know their path to winning is through pacing and defense, and by having been rewarded with some W’s, they are buying in. Since returning from that long road trip that spanned the Holidays, through pace and defense 15 of 20 opponents have been held to 100 points or less.
Item: Could it be “Buy” time for the Buffaloes?
A tip of the cap to Brian Howell of the Boulder Daily Camera, for his opening in having to write the Colorado side of that ugly 79-51 demolition vs. Utah – “On Saturday night, Askia Booker missed his first game in more than three years. He was only slightly less effective than his teammates.” Great stuff. Yet it also creates time for a perspective on a team that might be a unique buy-low option for the weeks ahead.
One of the best exercises that you an do in this endeavor, should you have the time, is to think of Buy Low/Sell High timing sequences, much like a stock market approach. There are teams that reach their market peak despite showing some cracks, which means a potential play-against cycles looming, while there are also circumstances in which both the team, and the schedule ahead, come together in a favorable way (last Monday’s take on Villanova would be a prime example). Which takes us to Boulder, and the Colorado possibilities.
This had a chance to be a big season for Tad Boyle and the Buffaloes – they had won at least 21 games in each of his first four campaigns, and there was a deep and talented cast in place. But at 11-11, including 4-6 in the Pac 12, the only prospect for the Big Dance would be to win the conference tourney. As such, the markets will show little interest, especially off of back-to-back double-figure losses, and the full-season scoreboard-based power ratings simply can not show much. But what happens next may not reflect what has happened to this point.
When you take a close look at the numbers, you find that in Colorado’s 22 games, no player has more than 19 starts. Injuries have taken a huge toll on the rotation, and key cogs Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott have only played a combined 193 minutes in Pac 12 games (out of a possible 830 at their positions). But Scott returned on Saturday, with 10 points and seven rebounds over 23 minutes, and Johnson has been back on the court for the last three games. After sitting out on Saturday, having previously played in 114 consecutive games, Booker’s bout with the flu will have subsided by the time California comes to Boulder on Thursday.
That game will be only their second in the month of February, without leaving campus, so there will have been plenty of practice time. It also means plenty of physical freshness, since there was no reason for Boyle to have anyone play more than 28 minutes vs. Utah. And there is that subtle bonus of Scott and Johnson being a little fresher than their February opponents, because of having played fewer minutes. The remaining schedule brings a split of four games both home and away, and because the Arizona rematch is at home, there is not a game that can not be won (the road trips are manageable affairs vs. the Oregon and Washington schools). There has not been a single Pac 12 game in which Booker, Johnson and Scott were healthy together (they did all start once, the first loss at Utah, but Johnson had to leave early). Now they will be, and as such this could be a most under-rated team.