It’s been a good week and let’s keep it going. Good luck, all!
4-0 yesterday, 69-59 season. PW went 2-0(36-34season) while BP went 2-0(42-30 season).
I’m a little hesitant on BP’s pick of Phillies/Rsox. All depends on which Sale shows up and also the Rsox have been putting up a lot of runs lately. Still gonna play it, just don’t feel really confident.
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Caleb Wilfinger
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-130)
This is a game between a pair of teams playing below their expectations this season. However, both pitchers should start strongly in this one. For the hosts, Luis Castillo is pitching at an ace level, and I wouldn’t expect that to change today. Castillo’s ERA sits at 1.82 and he has surrendered just 7 earned runs on the season. While the Astros offense is traditionally a power in the American League, Houston has struggled with inconsistency this season, particularly on the road. On the other side, the Mariners lineup is nothing to write home about, while Astros starter Cristian Javier has 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings and appears to be trending up heading into this matchup. We do have to eat some juice for this wager, but I think it’s a worthwhile trade-off in this spot.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-110)
These teams are expected to battle at the top of the NL West all season long, and we can expect both starting pitchers to sent the tone on Friday. The Dodgers are getting another excellent season from Clayton Kershaw, which is especially remarkable at this stage of his career. Kershaw’s 1.90 ERA and outstanding xWOBA, xERA, chase rate and walk rate back up what we’ve been seeing from the veteran left-hander over his first 6 starts.
The Dodgers offense has seemingly found life over the past week, including a 36-run outburst over the last 3 games against the Phillies. However, I’m expecting some regression for Los Angeles on the road against a much better opponent. Joe Musgrove’s ERA is a terrifying 10.80, but his xERA sits at 3.82, so positive regression is also expected on that front. He might get knocked around later in the contest, but I’ll back a quick start from Musgrove in this rivalry matchup.
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Austin Macmillan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:05 p.m. EST
Zack Wheeler vs. Chris Sale
Zack Wheeler’s performance on the mound this season has allowed him to surpass Aaron Nola as the ace of the Phillies, in my opinion. Wheeler has been dominant this season, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.86 ERA (3.10 xERA). His Baseball Savant page might make the argument that his analytics make him the best pitcher in all of baseball this year. All of his following metrics rank in the top 25th percentile: hard hit %, barrel %, whiff %, K%, average exit velo, xERA, and xSLG.
His extremely high spin rates (73rd percentile for curves, 83rd percentile for fastball) and his extension off the mound (96th percentile) have made him exceptionally hard to hit. The ball seems to jump out of his hand and across home plate much quicker than the average pitcher. Wheeler has been everything you can ask for out of an ace, and I think his success continues tonight.
On the flip side, Chris Sale is probably the only Boston pitcher that I want to put my money behind in any capacity this year. While it’s true that Sale has had a rocky start since his return from injury (2-2 with a 6.75 ERA), his underlying metrics suggest that he hasn’t been that bad. His xERA is nearly 2 points lower, at 4.94, and he’s still shown the ability to generate the swing and miss (whiff %, chase rate %, K% and hard hit % all rank in the top half of the league).
I like that he will be able to neutralize some of the power at the top of the Phillies’ batting order with lefty-lefty matchups against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. As mentioned, I’ve had success backing pitchers that have been off to a slow start this year. I also think we’re getting some extra value on this line because of the offensive firepower throughout these two lineups.
Pick: NRFI (-111)
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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros – 10:10 p.m. EST
Luis Castillo vs. Cristian Javier
Cristian Javier of the Astros is another pitcher I’m targeting for positive regression. He’s gotten off to somewhat of a slow start after bursting onto the scene as one of the best pitchers in the AL last year. Still, his chase rate, K%, BB%, and whiff% all rank in the top 40th percentile, and his ERA is a respectable 3.48.
What’s changed this season is that he’s been getting hit harder. Yet, much like the previous pitchers I’ve backed for positive regression, I believe this may be partly due to the new pace of play regulations. Talent will eventually level itself out. I’m fully expecting Javier to return to a form closer to what we saw last season when his xBA, xSLG, xERA and hard-hit % all ranked at the very top of the MLB. I like him to have a clean first inning against a Mariners lineup that he has plenty of experience against.
Like Wheeler, Luis Castillo has been filthy this season, with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. His metrics tell you this is no fluke, with his xERA, whiff %, K%, BB% and chase rate all in the top 30th percentile.
The Astros’ offense has snuck under the radar as not being very good so far without the services of Jose Altuve, ranking 20th or worse in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and HRs. T-Mobile Park also sits dead last in the MLB in offensive park factors, ranking well below average in runs scored, HRs, extra-base hits and xWOBA since 2021. This game features the lowest total on the board for Friday, and I expect both of these pitchers to live up to that expectation.
Pick: NRFI (-142)