Another good day yesterday, including the Pit/Tampa NRFI. Let’s keep it going.
May the 4th be with you! For all you Star Trek nerds….
3-1 yesterday, 65-59 season. PW went 2-0(34-34season) while BP went 1-1(40-30 season).
www.pickswise.com/.../
Ricky Dimon
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies: YRFI (-162)
You always have to like the YRFI a little bit more in Rockies home games than you do in other situations simply because of the fact that it’s Colorado we are talking about. Thursday’s matchup should be especially conducive to a first-inning run, as well. The Rockies are going with a bullpen day that will be kicked off by Connor Seabold. He is saddled with a 5.27 ERA through 7 appearances and just gave up 2 runs on 5 hits in 3.1 innings of work against the Angels this past Saturday.
Milwaukee is countering with Wade Miley, who is off to a strong start in 2023 but has had a tough time with the top of Colorado’s order. Charlie Blackmon is hitting .304 against him, Kris Bryant is 9-for-20 (.450) and Elias Diaz is 6-for-14 (.429). Combine those guys with the fact that the Rockies’ have given up tied for the third-most runs in Major League Baseball and you should feel good about the YRFI’s chances on Thursday.
.
.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-115)
Toronto right-hander Kevin Gausman has been in impressive form over his past 2 starts, but he isn’t that far removed from giving up a ridiculous 7 first-inning runs to Houston on April 17. Gausman also has a tough matchup on his hands in the form of the Red Sox. Justin Turner is 6-for-19 lifetime against the veteran with 2 home runs and 2 doubles. Rob Refsnyder is 5-for-16 with a double. They should be able to set the tone early at the top of Boston’s lineup.
Of course, the Blue Jays may have already plated a run by the time the Red Sox come to bat in the bottom of the opening frame. Brayan Bello is taking the mound for Boston and he is 0-1 with a 6.57 ERA. In his first start of the season the 23-year-old surrendered 4 first-inning runs to the Angels. Bello started against the Blue Jays 3 times as a rookie in 2022 and went 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA and .410 opponents’ batting average. George Springer is 6-for-9 in his career against the righty, Bo Bichette is 3-for-7 and Vladimir Guerrero is 3-for-8. All of that spells trouble for Bello.
.
.
.
.
www.bettingpros.com/.../
Paul Mammino
Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays – 1:10 ET
Zach Eflin has been solid in his first year pitching with the Rays. While his 3.00 ERA is better than the ERA estimators show, he is striking out about one hitter per inning while posting extremely low walk rates. He’s increased his GB% while dropping his FB%, which could be tied to an increase in cutters and a decrease in fastballs. The Pirates have been one of the best stories in all of baseball and have a wRC+ of 110. However, at an individual level, their hitters are more solid than elite and I believe that Eflin has the skill set to keep a clean inning.
Vince Velasquez gets the ball on the other side and is forced to take on the best offense in the game. Tampa has an absolutely wild wRC+ of 147 and is leading baseball in home runs. Velasquez has found a ton of success in 2023 mainly by limiting long balls. However, he has also slightly decreased his walk rate versus his career norms. It’s a difficult task for him to keep the Rays off the board, but I believe enough in the improvements Velasquez is making. He has actually struggled a bit early in games, but that seems to be correlated to when his HRs have come. I believe that he will be able to keep the Rays off the board and hold up his side of this bet.
Pick: NRFI -115
.
.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 ET
Lucas Giolito has been a bit of a mixed bag in 2023. The strikeouts have dropped again, but he has paired that with a massive reduction in walks. While the ERA is still slightly inflated, his estimators have him as more of a 3.75 ERA pitcher, which is much closer to his highly successful years. Giolito has been brutal the first time through the order in 2023, but his career numbers are closer to 0.316, which is solid but not spectacular. He gets to face the Twins offense, which has been league-average in the early going. This lines up well for Giolito to overcome his issues early in games.
Pablo Lopez got off to a roaring start for the Twins, but his last two starts have been rough against subpar offenses. He has raised his strikeouts to a career-high while keeping his relatively-low walk rate. In his career, Pablo has allowed a 0.295 wOBA the first time through the order and while this is not among the best in the game, it is definitely above average. He also gets to face the White Sox, which has been one of the worst teams in baseball. They have a wRC+ of 87 as a team, which is well below average, and they have struggled to score runs as a whole. Pablo should get back to his winning ways and keep the Sox off the board in this one.
Pick: NRFI -120