BOL today!
3-1 yesterday, 77-67 season. PW went 2-0(41-37 season) while BP went 1-1(46-35 season).
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Caleb Wilfinger
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers: YRFI (-125)
This is a game between a pair of teams that have been inconsistent this season. However, both offenses should start strongly in this one. Noah Syndergaard has had a very poor start to his Dodgers career, posting a 6.32 ERA in 6 starts. His numbers show that there is hope for positive regression, but Syndergaard is still a below-average pitcher at this stage in his career. There isn’t anything special that stands out about him, and the Brewers offense should be able to get off to a good start in this series. On the other side, Eric Lauer has an xERA of 5.84 and ranks inside the bottom 20 percentile in xERA, xWOBA, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity. This is a pitcher that isn’t missing many bats and the top of the Dodger lineup should feast early and often.
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Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels: NRFI (-120)
In what should be one of the premier pitching matchups of the day, the Astros travel to Anaheim for a date with the Angels. Any time that Shohei Ohtani takes the mound, you have to look at playing the NRFI. That happens to be the case on Tuesday, as Ohtani will put his 2.54 ERA and terrific advanced metrics (top 10 percentile in xSLG, xBA and whiff rate) to the test against a lineup that he has historically fared well against. The top 3 hitters in the Astros order are a combined 9-of-35 against Ohtani, with the majority of that production coming solely from Alex Bregman. On the other side, Framber Valdez seems to be in a good place with his stuff, posting a 2.60 ERA and having not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. Expect a hot start from both starters here..
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Austin Macmillan
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 p.m. EST
Pitching matchup: Zach Eflin vs. Grayson Rodriguez
Zach Eflin has become another product of the assembly line: the Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff. They take relatively unknown or underwhelming commodities and turn them into top-of-the-rotation arms. Eflin has been stellar this season, posting a 4-0 record with a 2.25 ERA (a very respectable 3.06 xERA) and a 0.96 WHIP. He’s always had a very good command of the strike zone, but this year he’s walking an absurd 2.8% of the batters he faces. His chase rate on pitches outside of the strike zone has been as good as it gets, ranking in the 98th percentile, and his average exit velo, xWOBA, xBA and K% all rank in the top 30th percentile in baseball. The Orioles could not score a single run in yesterday’s affair, and I foresee them having similar struggles against Eflin in this matchup.
It’s always a scary proposition fading the Rays’ offense, but the No. 1 prospect for Baltimore, Grayson Rodriguez, is a pitcher with whom I’m willing to do it with. Rodriguez got knocked around a bit in a crazy high-scoring affair against the Royals in his last start (he still did not surrender a run in the 1st inning, though), which snapped a streak of 11 scoreless innings. His stuff is absolutely there, ranking in the top 30th percentile in K%, chase rate, fastball velo and extension off the mound. The Rays could only muster two runs against another righty in Kyle Gibson yesterday, so I like Rodriguez’s chances of success today. Additionally, the adjustments made to the left field fence in Baltimore have severely decreased the offensive park factors at Camden Yards, dropping HR and extra-base hit numbers well below league average compared to other stadiums.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
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Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels – 9:38 p.m. EST
Pitching matchup: Framber Valdez vs. Shohei Ohtani
The Astros will send Framber Valdez out to the mound tonight to go head-to-head with Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Though Valdez’s stuff doesn’t necessarily jump off the page, he’s been one of the most consistent top-of-the-rotation arms in the American League over the past few seasons and is continuing that success in 2023, pitching to a 2.60 ERA so far. What Valdez does exceedingly well is generating ground balls, a statistic that he has led the MLB in (by a wide margin) over the past few seasons. Over 66% of the balls put in play against Valdez have been ground balls since 2021. That approach is paramount against the power the Angels possess at the top of their lineup. I also like the fact that he’ll be pitching against Ohtani in his worse hitting splits in a lefty-lefty matchup.
On the other hand, what more can be said about Ohtani? The dual-threat phenom seems to be having his best year on the mound since coming over to the MLB, pitching to the tune of a 4-0 record with a 2.54 ERA (a fantastic 2.92 xERA) and a minuscule 0.87 WHIP. His metrics are debatably the best of any pitcher in the league, ranking above the 90th percentile in average exit velo, xBA, xSLG, whiff % and K%. His hard hit % and xWOBA both rank above the 80th percentile, which is not too shabby either. Ohtani is a pitcher you can feel comfortable backing no matter the matchup, and I expect him to continue his dominance in this start against Houston tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-125)