They must have listened to me as they did better, lol. I even swept my games. :D
Have a great day, guys!
3-1 yesterday, 97-82 season. PW went 2-0(54-42 season) while BP went 2-1(55-45 season).
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Caleb Wilfinger
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: YRFI (-110)
This is a pretty cheap number for the YRFI considering that I believe both lineups will come out strong on Thursday. This series has been a feisty one between a pair of teams that should be fighting for playoff position in a loaded American League all season long. Nestor Cortes is a very good pitcher, but he has been inconsistent this season, especially away from the Bronx. The southpaw has surrendered 13 runs over his last 14.2 innings pitched on the road and will now take on a Blue Jays team that should be desperate to start strong after a disappointing series thus far. Add in the fact that 3 of the first 4 hitters in the Toronto lineup have a home run off Cortes and I think we have a good shot at cashing this YRFI.
On the other side, the Blue Jays are countering with Jose Berrios, who is coming off a pair of quality outings against the Braves and Pirates. However, his season-long metrics still reveal an ERA of 4.70 and an xERA of 4.87, so there is reason to be skeptical about his effectiveness in this start. It won’t help that Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and others have terrific numbers against Berrios so even if the Blue Jays come up empty the Yankees should do their part in the opening frame.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals: YRFI (-110)
Anytime that Adam Wainwright is on the mound these days, I’ll be looking to target the YRFI. Wainwright is a legend and is no doubt one of the great pitchers in Cardinals history, but he’s struggled mightily over his first couple of starts this season. In addition to posting a 7.30 ERA through 2 appearances, Wainwright’s struggled to limit hard contact, which will almost certainly come into play against the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and the top of the Dodgers lineup. Betts and Freeman are both hitting better than .300 lifetime against Wainwright and I’m looking for that success to continue here.
Even if the Dodgers are unable to get on the board against Wainwright, the Cardinals have at least a puncher’s chance of pushing across a run against Julio Urias. The left-hander has allowed a first-inning run in 4 of his last 5 outings this season, as he’s typically struggled out of the gate even in his stronger starts. Now against a Cardinals lineup that has seen some success against him previously — particularly at the top — I expect Urias to stumble out of the gate once again in St. Louis.
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Paul Mammino 14-13
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 ET
Jose Berrios has actually been decent so far this season. While his ERA is still elevated in the high-fours, all of his underlying skills look much better than they did last season. The Yankees’ offense has been much better of late, which makes this a really tough matchup, but Berrios has been excellent the first time through the order in 2023. He has allowed a wOBA of only 0.268 the first time through thus far in the season; his career number is slightly worse, but still solid at just over 0.300. He has a tough road to navigate in the first, but he should be able to make it through and the short slate forces us to make some choices we might not consider otherwise.
Nestor Cortes has struggled in his last few starts, but he has some of the most outrageous splits you’ll ever see. He has allowed a 0.238 wOBA in the first go around the order and that number balloons to over 0.600 by the time he sees hitters for the third time. The Blue Jays also have a super-talented lineup at the top and have success against lefties, but Cortes’s career numbers the first time through an order make this bet a worthwhile one.
Pick: -110 NRFI
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Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 ET
Dylan Cease has experienced a rough 2023 season. It’s partially due to an increase in walks, but also poor LOB% luck and some other factors that should point to improvement moving forward. He gets to face the Guardians’ offense, which is the worst in the league by wRC+ at 77. While Cease has certainly had his share of issues, he is still a wildly talented pitcher with a favorable matchup for today’s game and he should be able to succeed.
Logan Allen has been really good in his brief MLB career with double-digit K/9 rates and a decent BB/9. It’s obviously a small sample, but his wOBA allowed the first time through the order is 0.183, which is unsustainable but demonstrates the skills he has. The White Sox offense has been improving of late after a terrible start and their wRC+ is 105 against lefties. That makes this a tougher bet, but again the small slate makes this a worthwhile gamble.
Pick: -115 NRFI