Might take a look at the Dbacks game, Gallen’s pitching.
I read that Lodolo isn’t starting for the Reds, check before playing.
Good luck today!
2-2 yesterday, 84-75 season. PW went 2-0(47-39 season) while BP went 0-2(48-41 season).
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Kyle Lupas
St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-122)
One game I envision some early scoring comes in Boston, between the Red Sox and the visiting Cardinals. This game will feature two struggling left-handers who try to battle the Green Monster in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Steven Matz and Chris Sale will each make their 8th start for their respective teams, and neither pitcher is off to a hot start. Matz has a 5.70 ERA to go along with a 1.60 WHIP, while Sale is off the worst start of his career. Sale has most certainly been unlucky at times, as his 4.39 xERA is nearly 2 runs lower than his 6.37 ERA, but we’re used to seeing Sale closer to his career 3.10 ERA.
It’s been an inconsistent year for Sale, and while he does have 3 quality outings, he also has 3 outings in which he allowed at least 5 earned runs. I do think Sale puts it together, as his strikeout rate, chase rate, and hard-hit rate are all in the 70th percentile or better, but he’s facing a Cardinals’ team averaging 5.63 runs over their last 8 games, despite their 13-25 record. Matz doesn’t have an easy task at hand himself. The Red Sox have been on an absolute tear since April 29. In their last 11 games, Boston is averaging 6.09 runs and already has 4 runs in the bottom of the 5th inning as I’m writing this. I’m going to fade the lefties and back lineups that have been seeing the ball extremely well of late.
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Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers: YRFI (-122)
Would you believe me if I told you the 12-win Kansas City Royals have scored more runs in the month of May than any other team in Major League Baseball? I know it’s hard to fathom, but with 67 runs in their last 10 games, the Royals are near the top of the leaderboard in every offensive statistic. Surprisingly (or maybe not so surprisingly, I mean this is the Royals we’re talking about) they’ve gone just 5-5 during this offensive breakthrough of theirs. Not only are they scoring runs – they’re also giving them up. They’ve given up 55 runs over their last 10 games, which ranks 3rd to last, and their starting pitching staff owns a 5.38ERA on the year.
Zack Greinke has only hurt the cause, posting his worst ERA since 2005, along with a 41.5% hard-hit rate. As a strikeout pitcher, Greinke has never been the crème de la crème, but he’s always been slightly above average. However, in recent seasons his strikeout rate has significantly dropped, and for a pitcher who’s always around the zone, it leads to wide-eyed hitters in opposing lineups. It’s why Greinke has already given up 8 homers in 8 starts, and the reason why I like the Brewers to start this game extremely aggressive.
The Royals might come with a more patient approach at the plate, but an approach that can turn out to be just as effective. They’ll be going up against Adrian Houser, who has a career 9.6% walk rate and will only be making his 2nd start of the season. Houser’s command wasn’t an issue in his 2023 debut, walking only 1 batter in 4.2 innings, but the hard contact was certainly a concern. Houser gave up 7 hits and a good amount of hard contact early in the game. In the 1st inning alone, all 3 balls put in play off Houser were considered hard contact, which Statcast defines as any ball hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. The Royals have the 3rd highest hard-hit rate in baseball at 43.9% and I like their chances against Houser.
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Kurt Blakeway
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins – 1:10 ET
Nick Lodolo vs. Sandy Alcantara
The Miami Marlins are starting last year’s Cy Young winner, who is a perfect 7-0 this year regarding NRFIs.
On paper, it may seem like Sandy Alcantara has not performed as well as last year; while that may be true to some degree, I think it’s more so that he is getting unlucky. Alcantara is 1-3, with a 4.53 ERA season which is exceptionally high compared to last year’s (2.28). His advanced metrics show he is getting unlucky, as his xERA is 4.27, and his xFIP is 3.85.
On the opposing side, the Cincinnati Reds should be starting Nick Lodolo. Lodolo had an impressive rookie season and had a lot of hype coming to this season. The 25-year-old lefty has had a disappointing start to 2023 but is going up against one of the worst offenses in the league.
Let’s get a quick six-outs for the NRFI.
Bet: NRFI (-145)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 ET
Roansy Contreras vs. Tyler Wells
It may be safe to say these two teams are the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. Baltimore showed signs of an up-and-coming ballclub last season, while the Pirates have come out of nowhere. Both teams are over .500 and in second place in their respective divisions.
The offense is what has been carrying these teams thus far. Both teams rank inside the top 15 in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+, and today I believe we see that on display due to the below-average pitching matchup.
The Pirates will be starting Roansy Contreras. Contreras is 3-3 with and WRA of 4.74 and xFIP of 5.08. While he doesn’t give up the long ball very often, he allows a lot of contact. His BABIP (.336) is among the highest in the league.
On the flip side, Baltimore is starting Tyler Wells. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA. His ERA can be a bit misleading as you look into the advanced analytics. Despite a low ERA, his xERA is 4.94, and his xFIP is 4.53, meaning we may see a bit of regression coming his way. Wells has a Barrel% of 9.9% and a HardHit% of 40.5%, both on the high side.
Between the two starters, they have a combined 13 starts and have allowed a run in the first inning in seven of those starts. Let’s see if we can have some fireworks early!
Bet: YRFI (-115)