Though I haven’t looked at the data, it sure seems like there are more first inning runs this year than last.
Regarding todays Yankee/Twins game, I ran across this…..
“ Both starting pitchers tote favorable BABIPs into this game. Cole only got 6 swinging strikes in his last start, and although he’s a workhorse could succumb to the effects of 95-plus pitches in each start so far. He also has struggled against current Twins bats.
Lopez makes this start on 4 days’ rest. Over his career that has not been anywhere near his best interval. The hurler who has yielded a mere 3.84 ERA on a .696 OPS in his career, has on 4-day rest coughed up a 4.59 ERA on a .744 OPS.”
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Have a winning day!
1-2 yesterday, 27-32 season. PW went 1-1(15-18 season) while BP went 1-1(16-19 season).
www.pickswise.com/.../
Keith
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-140)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There are several premier pitching matchups on Sunday, but this series finale matchup might be the best. It features the NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara against Zac Gallen, who finished a few places behind Alcantara in the voting. Besides being great for the entire outing, these two pitchers were particularly excellent in the first inning last year. Alcantara was fantastic against the opposing top of the order with a 1.69 ERA and a .167 opponent batting average in the first frame, and that success has continued this season. Through 3 starts, Alcantara has faced the minimum 9 batters without allowing a hit and recording 3 strikeouts in the opening frame.
Gallen went from a decent option in a rotation to a certified stud last season. He solidified himself as the ace of the staff while also becoming one of the most reliable NRFI pitchers in the game. That has held true for the beginning of this season as well since Gallen has held hitters to a 1-for-10 average at the plate. Five of the 9 outs have been via strikeout, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Gallen rack up another strikeout or two on Sunday. The top of the Miami usually has Jazz Chisholm, Luis Arraez and Garrett Cooper, and those 3 hitters are a combined 1-for-8 with 2 strikeouts against Gallen in their careers. It’s a little pricey, but it’s worth the juice in my eyes.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This NRFI is the perfect combination of premier pitching and slow-starting offenses. The White Sox have scored a first inning run in just 1 of their last 7 games, while the Orioles have been held scoreless in the first frame in their last 4 straight. I’m slightly more worried about Baltimore’s offense compared to Chicago’s, but that worry goes away with the pitching matchup. Dylan Cease will make his 4th start of the season on Sunday, and to say his season has started well would be a massive understatement. In 16.1 innings, opponents are hitting .102 with a 34.8% strikeout rate against Cease. Those are video game-like numbers, and it all starts with a strong first inning. Opponents are 1-for-10 with 8 strikeouts in the first frame against Cease, and that dominance is hard to ignore.
Grayson Rodriguez now has 2 MLB career starts under his belt which means his nerves should be going down. The highly-touted prospect has not had the greatest start to his big league career statistics-wise, as a few walks and well-timed hits have created a 6.75 ERA for Rodriguez. However, he will face a slumping White Sox lineup that will be without Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. The injury bug has found its way back into Chicago’s locker room early this season and has created a subpar lineup. In the last week, the White Sox rank 27th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage and 29th in OPS. The White Sox are more of a second-half team which creates value on the NRFI in the South Side of Chicago.
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www.bettingpros.com/.../
Trenton Pruitt
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
The rotation rolls over for the Yankees and they’ll turn to Gerrit Cole to help try and salvage a series split against the Twins. Minnesota opts for Pablo Lopez in this American League clash scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY.
Lopez has been fabulous in his debut season with the Twins, entering at 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.65 WHIP over three starts. Most recently, the right-hander threw 7.2 innings against the White Sox and held them to just two earned runs on three hits and a walk. He racked up 10 strikeouts in the no-decision effort.
Cole has been equally as dominant during the 2023 campaign, sitting at 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 19.1 innings of work. The righty posted his third consecutive quality start in his last outing against the Guardians, limiting them to two earned runs over 7.0 innings.
At this point, it’s hard to bet against either of these guys – so I won’t! NRFI has to be the play in the Bronx this afternoon.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-145)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
The Marlins are up 2-0 in the series against the Diamondbacks and they’ve outscored the visitors 8-3 over the first two games of the series. Miami will go with Sandy Alcantara in the series finale while Arizona counters with Zac Gallen. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET from LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL.
The reigning Cy Young Award winner Alcantara isn’t off to a great start this season, entering at 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over three starts. This will be a great opportunity for the right-hander to bounce back against a team he’s owned throughout his career. Alcantara has limited the Snakes to a .204/.278/.408 slash line over 49 at-bats.
Gallen will oppose the fierce righty, but luckily he’s found a similar amount of success against the Fish. Over 45 at-bats, Gallen has limited the Marlins to a .133/.152/.222 slash line. He’s also looking to build off of a fantastic outing against the Brewers last time out. The right-hander held the Crew scoreless over 7.0 innings and allowed just four baserunners while striking out 11 hitters. Look for a third consecutive low-scoring game in Miami today. Let’s lock in NRFI in the 305.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-160)
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Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
The Braves are taking care of business so far in their series with the Royals and they’ll go for the sweep this afternoon when they send Kyle Wright to the bump. Kansas City will turn to veteran Zack Greinke in this interleague matchup scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
Wright’s set to make just his second start of the year today after giving up four earned runs over 3.0 innings against Reds Tuesday. This is a nice spot for him to bounce back against a Royals side that’s 29th in both team batting average (.211) and OPS (.617).
Greinke, on the other hand, is 0-3 out of the gate with Kansas City but owns a respectable 3.31 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He’s thrown a bunch against the Braves in his career, holding them to a .220/.243/.420 slash line over 100 at-bats. Most importantly, the big boppers of Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley are a combined 4-33 (.121) against the righty. I think it’s worth a shot with the coin-flip odds to say this one remains scoreless after one inning.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-110)