Glad I faded Caleb “Dart Thrower” Wilfinger on the Jays game and wish I had on the Twins game, a surprisingly bad first inning for Ryan. OC nailed the Cubs game, gonna follow him for a bit to see how he does. Might end up including him if he shows promise. Let’s see what games Caleb’s darts land on today. Good luck!
0-2 yesterday, 45-54 season. PW went 0-2(22-31 season) while BP went AWOL(29-28 season).
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Caleb Wilfinger
Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-108)
When Zac Gallen is on the mound, I immediately look toward backing the NRFI. In this game, we’re getting a bit of value on the NRFI since Gallen will be opposed by Ryan Yarbrough, who holds an xERA of 6.78 and is in the bottom 10 percentile of all pitchers in strikeout percentage and xBA. None of Yarbough’s metrics are impressive, but he has 3 outings this season where he’s thrown a scoreless inning. If the Royals opener is able to make it through the top half of Arizona’s lineup, then we should be in good shape with Gallen on the other side. The Diamondbacks ace is one of the best pitchers in baseball and has not allowed a run in his last 21 innings pitched. Don’t expect that to change against a Royals team that is 6-18 for a reason. I’ll take the NRFI at this discounted price.
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Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-125)
This is a matchup where we’d typically have to lay closer to -140 or even -150 juice, but we’re getting a slight discount because of Sandy Alcantara’s inconsistency this season. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner has an ERA of 5.47 and has had a couple of poor starts this season. However, his xERA of 4.75 suggests that he’s due for some positive regression — which makes sense considering 1 outing where he surrendered 9 runs did inflate his ERA. Alcantara hasn’t been dominant, but he’s still allowed just 6 ER over 21 innings pitched if you remove that outing against Philadelphia. If he gets off to a strong start on Wednesday, I have full trust in Braves starter Bryce Elder (1.14 ERA in 24 IP) to continue to perform well against a weak Marlins lineup. Therefore, I’ll grab the NRFI at this number.
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Kurt Blakeway
Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Jon Gray vs. Graham Ashcraft
Here we have a matchup with two pitchers who have not given up a first-inning run yet this season. Both starting pitchers are perfect regarding NRFI, giving us a combined record of 8-0.
Rangers’ starter, Jon Gray, is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA and has been a solid back-end piece to Texas’ rotation. Gray has been susceptible to the long ball this season but can usually keep the opposing offense under control the first time through the lineup. After that, that’s when the wheels start to fall off. But with the NRFI, we just need to worry about the first three hitters.
For the Cincinnati Reds, Graham Ashcraft gets the nod. Ashcraft could be argued as the best Reds pitcher thus far in 2023. He is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 21 strikeouts. He has gone at least five innings in each of his four starts, giving up two runs at the most.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Mackenzie Gore vs. Kodai Senga
Mackenzie Gore was once recognized as an elite pitching prospect. But following some early struggle, the Padres shipped him to the National in the Juan Soto trade. This season Gore is proving why he was such a highly-touted prospect.
To start the 2023 season, Gore is 2-1 with a 3/43 year with 25 strikeouts. Over his first four starts, he has only allowed three earned runs or less and is averaging six strikeouts per game. His only fault is that his control can vanish at points, and he starts handing out free passes. His BB/9 is 6.00, one of the highest in baseball. But despite giving up 3.5 walks per start, he has done a great job limiting the damage.
For the Mets, newcomer Kodai Senga has also been impressive. Over his first four starts, he is 3-0 with an ERA of 4.29 and 25 strikeouts. His last two starts have been shaky, allowing a combined eight and four home runs. His command can sometimes vanish, giving opposing teams a couple of press passes like Gore.
Yet, luckily for us, we need to worry about just one inning. Gore and Senga have a combined record of 7-1 when looking at NRFIs.