0-1 yesterday, 58-56 season. PW went 0-1(29-33 season) while BP went AWOL(37-28 season).
Have a great day!
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Ricky Dimon
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-125)
Corey Kluber is taking the mound on Monday and that is bad news for the Red Sox. It’s great news for YRFI bettors. The veteran righty is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA through 5 starts. He has given up a first-inning run in 2 of his last 3 appearances, including 3 runs to the Minnesota Twins on April 19. Adding insult to injury, Kluber now has to face a powerful Toronto lineup. Three of the Blue Jays’ first 4 batters are hitting .309 or better this season. The only exception is George Springer, and he delivered 3 hits in Sunday’s 10-8 loss to the Seattle Mariners. Springer is 9-for-24 lifetime against Kluber with 2 doubles and a homer; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 5-for-9, also with 2 doubles and 1 HR; Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman have both homered off Kluber twice.
The YRFI should cash in the top of the first, but if it doesn’t then Boston will still have a good chance to score. Jose Berrios is saddled with a 4.71 ERA in 2023 and leadoff hitter Alex Verdugo is 6-for-14 in his career against the right-hander with 1 home run. Rafael Devers has also gone deep off Berrios. The bats on these 2 teams should victimize the pitching early and often in the series opener.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (+102)
The Dodgers are finally starting to heat up in the early stages of this season, but they are still a modest 16-13 and have scored two runs or fewer in 3 of their last 5 games. It is a similar story for the Phillies, who have begun to pick up the pace but are just 15-14 following Sunday night’s 4-3 loss at the Houston Astros. Philadelphia has scored 3 runs or fewer in 3 of its last 4 contests.
Monday’s series-opening pitching matchup pits Tony Gonsolin of the Dodgers against Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker. Gonsolin has made only 1 start this year because of an ankle injury and he held the Pittsburgh Pirates scoreless through 3.1 innings. Walker has been mediocre so far for his new team, but he has surrendered a first-inning run only once in his past 4 outings. There isn’t any hitter in either lineup who has enjoyed any notable success against the opposing pitcher, so getting the NRFI at plus money is a great value play.
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Paul Mammino
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees – 7:05 ET
This matchup contains two of the worst offenses in the game to this point. The Yankees are throwing Domingo German, who has been a different pitcher in 2023 than in any of the previous seasons. Additionally, he has been a bit up and down, with two great starts and three sub-par ones. He has had a massive HR issue, but this is a perfect matchup for him as the Guardians have a wRC+ of 85, which is tied for the fourth lowest in the league. Similarly, they have the fourth-lowest ISO in the league. German should be able to keep a clean first.
Cal Quantrill goes for Cleveland, and he has similarly poor overall numbers in 2023. The Yankees are likely to be without Aaron Judge, and they already have a bottom-10 offense with a 90 wRC+. This is mostly driven by the bottom half of their order, but in recent games, their entire offense is struggling. In his career, Quantrill has been extremely effective early in the game, allowing a .277 wOBA the first time through the order. This all lines up well for Quantrill here.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals – 7:05 ET
On a small slate like today, we have to take some gambles we typically might not love on a normal day. That is this bet for me, despite my interest and appreciation for Mackenzie Gore’s season thus far. Gore has one massive red flag on an otherwise elite profile thus far, and that is too many walks. He has over 11 K/9 with a sub-1 HR/9, but his BB/9 is over 5. While the walks terrify me, the strikeout skills are so great that I think he can keep it clean in the first. The Cubs do have an elite offense against lefties with the second-best wRC+, but with the other options for today, I’ll take a chance on this side.
On the other end of the game, Drew Smyly takes the ball. Washington is actually an above-average offense against lefties with a wRC+ of 108. Smyly has been excellent thus far, with just under a strikeout per inning with a low walk total, and has been limiting HRs at an impressive rate. In his career, his wOBA the first time through the order is 0.303, good enough for us to trust him in this matchup. While these two matchups are not exactly ideal in my eyes, they are both solid enough for me to bet that both pitchers can keep a clean first inning.
Pick: NRFI -125