2-3 yesterday, 74-66 season. PW went 1-1(39-37 season) while BP went 1-2(45-34 season).
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Kyle Lupas
Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: NRFI (-125)
Our first game takes place in Pittsburgh, with a game between the slumping Pirates and the surging Rockies. After a hot start to the season, Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight games and looks more like their team from 2022 as opposed to a team sitting atop the NL Central standings. Over their 7-game losing streak, the Pirates have scored a grand total of 9 runs, are batting .175 as a team, and rank 29th in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
While I don’t have a ton of faith in Rockies’ starter Kyle Freeland, he’s actually pitched quite well this season and we only need a good 1st inning from him for this bet to cash. Through 7 outings, he’s already had 4 quality starts and threw a 5-inning shutout against the Brewers last week. Meanwhile, Mitch Keller gives the Pirates the best chance at quieting the bats of Colorado. Keller is pitching to a 3.32 ERA and has a hard-hit rate that falls in the 95th percentile. Combine that with a 7.6% walk rate and it creates all sorts of trouble for opposing lineups. Look for a scoreless 1st inning and possibly a lower scoring game in general.
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Oakland Athletics vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-128)
The Yankee lineup is still without both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and boy could the Yankees use them. Since Stanton was placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain on April 16, the Yankees have struggled to produce at the plate. Up until Stanton’s injury, the Yankees were averaging 4.8 runs per game through their first 15 games. Over the next 11 games, that number dropped to 3.67 runs per game and has now dipped all the way down to 3.11 over their last 9 games – which is the amount of time the Yankees have been without their 2 sluggers.
Tonight the Yankees will go up against left-hander JP Sears, who could very well give New York some trouble despite his 5.06 ERA. The Yankees have been one of the worst lineups against lefties this season – batting only .218. Given Sears doesn’t give up many walks and has an above average chase rate, he should be able to find some success against a shorthanded Yankees’ lineup. The Yankees also have Nestor Cortes on the mound with a great bounce-back spot ahead of him. Cortes has been hit extremely hard at times this season, and saw his ERA spike to 4.91 after surrendering 7 earned runs in his last start against the Rangers. Luckily, all signs point to Cortes getting back on track, especially his 3.26 xERA. It’s also important to note that many of the runs Cortes has given up this season have come in the latter half of the game. The 4 runs given up to the Rangers in the 1st inning of his last outing were the only 1st-inning runs he’s allowed this season and 11 of his 18 earned runs have come between innings 4 through 6. I foresee Cortes getting out to a great start against the worst team in baseball.
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Paul Mammino
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals – 7:40 ET
The Royals have been one of the worst teams in all of baseball for several reasons, but one primary reason is their pitching. Their team ERA is second worst in baseball, only bettering the Athletics, who have been truly dreadful. Zack Greinke has been a part of those struggles with an ERA over five; however, he seems to be a bit unlucky. There are almost no strikeouts these days but still no walks. However, the home run numbers are up, and he has paired that with a well below average LOB%. This season, Greinke has actually been solid the first time through with a sub-.300 wOBA allowed and gets to face a White Sox offense that is missing one of his best hitters in Eloy Jimenez. Greinke should be able to keep them off the board in the first.
For the White Sox, Dylan Cease takes the ball and faces the Royals’ bottom-five offense. Similarly to Greinke, Cease appears to be a bit of a victim of poor luck with a LOB% well outside of the normal expectation. His walks are up slightly, but he’s always had an elevated BB%. Cease has always been solid despite not being exceptional the first time through the order in his career with a 0.310 wOBA allowed. This Royals’ offense is truly dreadful, and this is a fantastic spot for Cease.
Pick: -110
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Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 ET
Zac Gallen saw his scoreless streak get broken in his last start, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been exceptional in 2023. His K% has risen significantly, with an additional improvement to his low BB%, turning him into a true ace. In 2023, Gallen has allowed a 0.227 wOBA for the first time through the order, which is right in line with the 0.251 wOBA allowed in his career. He gets to face a rough Marlins offense with a wRC+ of only 86. While Gallen is not going to be able to keep up the insane improvements he’s made thus far, he is plenty skilled enough, and the matchup is good enough for him to keep it rolling again today.
The other side of the coin sees Braxton Garrett take the mound. Garrett had a brutal last outing which is currently clouding the full-season numbers, but he was excellent before that last outing. He gets to face a Diamondbacks’ offense that has been league average to this point against lefties with a 99 wRC+. Throughout his career, Garrett has struggled the first time through the order with an elevated wOBA allowed, but he seems to have taken a jump, and despite the terrible outing against a great offense, he is looking like an above-average pitcher.
Pick: -125