Setting the Stage: In Daboll We Trust
As the 2023 NFL season approaches, the New York Giants appear on the precipice of a decisive era, fresh from a surprising playoff return and bolstered by key moves in the offseason. Their 2022 season was a tale of resurgence, concluding with a 9-7-1 record, which masked underlying statistical concerns but catapulted them into their first postseason victory since Super Bowl XLVI.
Under the leadership of Coach Brian Daboll, honored as the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year in his debut season with the Giants, the team's offense exceeded expectations in 13 of 19 games according to the Vegas market (as measured by per-game team total results). Comparisons to renowned coaches like Sean McVay have followed Daboll, reflecting his immediate impact. The question now lingers: Will his story unfold like McVay's prolonged success, or will it follow the trajectory of Matt Nagy's brief sparkle?
Quarterback Daniel Jones emerged as a focal point of the Giants' offensive evolution, posting career bests in several key areas and taking notable strides forward. His 1.1% interception percentage led the NFL, and his rushing prowess added another dimension to his game. The Giants committed to Jones, inking a new four-year, $160 million contract.
Saquon Barkley, returning on the franchise tag, brings continuity to the running game, but the Giants' second contract investment in him comes with a well-known risk. Both these deals present challenges to roster construction in the pursuit of a championship, reflecting on the financial landscape of the organization.
Offseason acquisitions like tight end Darren Waller from the Las Vegas Raiders, linebacker Bobby Okereke, defensive linemen A'Shawn Robinson, and Rakeem Nuñez-Roches are positive strides. Though Waller's age and recent injury record pose risks, his presence should boost a receiver room in need. The Giants also navigated key losses such as guard Nick Gates and safety Julian Love.
The draft added promising prospects to the roster, with cornerback Deonte Banks, center John Michael Schmitz, and receiver Jalin Hyatt noted as good value picks. The Giants received the fifth-highest consensus grade among experts via Football Outsiders, hinting at a successful future replenishment of talent.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the New York Giants' 2023 Win Total of Over/Under 7.5.
However, concerns persist. Last season's Giants won six games by seven points or less and finished just 21st in Football Outsiders' DVOA for the regular season. Their point differential stood at a negative six. These markers underline a statistical profile that doesn't entirely support a playoff contender image, suggesting an uphill battle in maintaining last year's achievements.
Defensively, the Giants were aggressive in their approach, blitzing at an NFL-high rate of 39.7%. With 41 sacks, the 13th in the league, defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale's philosophy worked to some extent. But the extreme reliance on blitzing may need recalibration.
As the Giants head into training camp, their fans, hungry for continued success, will watch closely. Expectations are lofty, the stakes are high, and the spotlight is bright. The stage is set, and the Giants must now perform to solidify their return to relevance or risk regressing to a fleeting success story.
The Betting Landscape
The New York Giants, no strangers to improbable Super Bowl runs in recent vintage, find themselves longshots yet again in 2023, both in their division and on the Super Bowl odds board. Although the Giants made their first playoff appearance since 2016 and secured their first postseason win since 2011, the betting market initially took a cautious stance on the team's prospects following their 2022 campaign. As the offseason has unfolded, skepticism has grown about Brian Daboll and the Giants' ability to replicate last year's success.
In February, the Giants opened with 40/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, according to Pregame.com's consensus numbers. Those odds have since drifted to 65/1 as of August 25th. The Giants have a history of defying expectations, notably securing the Lombardi Trophy with preseason odds of 30/1 in 2007 and as 22/1 longshots in 2011. Should Daboll and quarterback Daniel Jones orchestrate a miraculous run to the Super Bowl at 65/1 odds, they would etch their names into Giants lore, securing a special place in the hearts of New York City's football faithful—neither would ever have to buy a meal in the city again
NY Giants Super Bowl Odds Progression
February: NY Giants 40-to-1 (18th favorite)
Current (consensus as of August 25th): NY Giants 65-to-1 (t-20th favorite with NE Patriots)
Initially ranked with the 18th-best Super Bowl odds when the market opened in February, the Giants have since been leapfrogged by the Vikings, Saints, Steelers, and Seahawks in the betting market. Conversely, the Rams and Raiders have fallen behind them on the odds board.
Within the NFC East—a division boasting the most Lombardi trophies of any NFL division with 13—the Giants lag behind both the Eagles and the Cowboys in the Super Bowl odds. They are currently the third favorite among divisional contenders, a stark contrast to their rivals' more promising prospects.
NFC East Super Bowl Odds (consensus as of August 25th):
PHI Eagles +750 (2nd favorite in NFL)
DAL Cowboys 14 to 1 (6th favorite)
NY Giants 65 to 1 (t-20th favorite with NE Patriots)
WAS Commanders 90 to 1 (27th favorite)
It's not just the Super Bowl market that has adjusted its stance on the Giants; the win total market has similarly soured. The initial over/under was set at 8.5, with juice to the Under aligning with a projection of around ~8.3 wins. However, gradually the expectation has since declined to an over/under of 7.5. Pregame.com’s consensus odds even lean slightly (-115) towards the under, reflecting a diminished faith in the team's regular-season performance.
NY Giants Win Total (consensus odds as of August 25th):
Over 7.5 (-105)
Under 7.5 (-115)
The divisional race in the NFC East offers a glimmer of hope, with 18 consecutive seasons without a repeat champion. The Giants last clinched the NFC East in 2011, the same year they won their last Super Bowl. Despite the uphill battle, there's a sense of unpredictability within the division.
NFC East Odds (consensus odds as of August 25th):
PHI Eagles -115
DAL Cowboys +180
NY Giants +750
WAS Commanders 13-to-1
When it comes to making the playoffs, the market is leaning towards the Giants falling short. The odds of them making the postseason sit at around +160 (~34% implied odds), with the odds against at -190 (~64% implied odds).
Will the Giants Make the Playoffs? (Odds as of August 25th, via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yes +160 (~34% implied odds)
No -190 (~64% implied odds)
The 2023 season looms as a pivotal one for the Giants. Last year, a favorable schedule aided their successful run, but they face stiffer competition this year. According to Vegas Win Totals, the Giants' expected strength of schedule is middle-of-the-pack, a step up from having the easiest schedule in the NFL a year ago. Despite retaining key players like QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley, the Vegas market has grown increasingly cautious as we move towards the season's start. The echoes of past glories linger, but to write a new successful chapter, the Giants will need to defy growing doubts and expectations. The betting world is keenly observing whether the Giants can once again rise to the occasion or will succumb to the market's dimmer view of their prospects.
Week 1 Showdown
As the NFL regular season kicks off, the New York Giants find themselves in a prime-time spot, hosting divisional rivals the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. MetLife Stadium will be the backdrop for what promises to be a compelling Week 1 showdown, a game that could set the tone for both teams' 2023 campaigns. Given the Giants' 9-7 finish last season and their recent Wild Card Round win, expectations are cautiously optimistic for Big Blue.
When the NFL schedule was released in May, the Giants were listed as 3-point underdogs at home. However, that line has moved since, with the Giants now finding themselves as 3.5-point underdogs according to consensus odds. This half-point move off of the key number of +3 suggests a slight decline in market confidence for New York going into this Week 1 clash. Bettors who secured the earlier line at +3 might feel a bit short-changed by this latest development.
Last year, the Cowboys emerged victorious in both encounters against the Giants, winning 23-16 and 28-20. Yet, from a betting perspective, the Giants outperformed many expectations, boasting a league-leading 14-5 record against the spread. This element adds a compelling subplot to the game’s betting narrative.
A key matchup to watch is the Giants' struggling run defense against Dallas’s versatile ground game. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last season in opponent's yards per rush. Stopping the Cowboys' ground attack, led by Tony Pollard, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season, will be pivotal for New York.
On the flip side, the Giants' offense will look to exploit a Cowboys defense that has shown vulnerability. Second-year head coach Brian Daboll, who orchestrated a seven-game improvement in his debut season, will need to leverage the Giants' strengths effectively to counter Dallas's touted roster.
With this game featured on Sunday Night Football, the betting interest is expected to be high. Apart from divisional implications, various betting angles are in play, adding layers of complexity to this opening showdown.
For the Giants, this is an opportunity to prove their mettle and possibly turn around a lopsided recent history against the Cowboys. Their home-field advantage and the unpredictability that comes with a season opener offer a chance to make a strong statement.
For the Cowboys, the goal is to uphold their recent dominance over the Giants and begin the season on the right foot. Dak Prescott owns a 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) record against the Giants, and the market's minor shift suggests a continued faith in Dallas's ability to dominate.
As both teams square off under the lights of MetLife Stadium, the contest promises not just to be a divisional struggle but a magnet for bettors, teeming with the opportunities and uncertainties that make Week 1 of the NFL so captivating. With perfect weather expected, the elements seem to be aligned for an intense showdown between these NFC East rivals.
Player Spotlights
Daniel Jones (QB)
Over/Under 3300.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 575.5 Rushing Yards
50-to-1 to win NFL MVP
Daniel Jones' 4-year, $160M contract inked this April is a testament to the transformative effect Brian Daboll has had on his career. Under Daboll's tutelage, Jones not only posted a career-high 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt but also became a formidable dual threat, contributing eight rushing touchdowns last season. This impressive transformation is also reflected in Mike Sando's annual QB rankings—an offseason evaluation by 50 NFL insiders—which saw Jones climb from a lowly 30th place ahead of the 2022 season to a much-improved 19th spot entering this season. With Daboll's continued focus on leveraging Jones as a dual-threat, surpassing the Over/Under metrics for both his passing and rushing yards this upcoming season seems well within reach.
Saquon Barkley (RB)
Over/Under 1050.5 Rushing Yards
50-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley's talents are no secret, especially as he becomes a focal point in Daboll's run-first offense. Despite an underwhelming 15 receiving touchdowns for the Giants in 2022, the ground game showed glimmers of hope, and Barkley is poised to be at the center of that resurgence. In light of Barkley's injury history, where he has suited up for only 60 out of a potential 82 regular-season games over his five-year stint with the Giants, his health is undeniably a vital factor. Averaging over 4 missed games each season, his availability will be crucial for reaching the Over/Under mark of 1050.5 rushing yards. Should he successfully steer clear of the injury list, attaining or exceeding this rushing yardage becomes a realistic target.
Concluding—at least for now—a turbulent contract saga, Barkley in late July negotiated a one-year deal rather than play under the $10.091 million franchise tag. His new contract, which comes with a $2 million signing bonus and an additional $1 million in incentives, could reach up to $11 million. This positions him third in cash value among 2023 running backs but doesn't offer protections against a future franchise tag. After an extended negotiation period, Barkley seemed keen to finalize the contract and report to training camp, primarily to counter a growing perception of him as "greedy."
Darren Waller (TE)
Over/Under 700.5 Receiving Yards
75-to-1 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year
A newcomer to the Giants, Waller's role is yet to be fully defined. However, with Daniel Jones' preference for shorter throws, Waller has the potential to be a significant piece in the passing attack. It's worth noting that Waller has only completed a full season twice in his seven-year NFL career, so staying healthy is a concern. Remarkably, since 2019, he's averaged an impressive 65.3 receiving yards per game—a rate that would put him on an elite 1,100-yard pace if he can stay on the field for all 17 games. While it's uncommon for a tight end to be a team's top receiving target, Waller's situation is not unique; the same is true in Kansas City. If Waller can maintain his form and avoid injury, he stands a solid chance to surpass the 700.5 receiving yards projected by bookmakers.
Isaiah Hodgins (WR)
Over/Under 500.5 Receiving Yards
Entering his third year, 24-year-old Isaiah Hodgins is poised for a breakout season with the Giants, especially after a notable late-season surge last year. Hodgins caught the league's attention when he racked up 105 receiving yards and a touchdown on eight receptions in the Giants' playoff win over the Vikings. With Darius Slayton's inconsistent performance, Hodgins, who remains a primary outside target for quarterback Daniel Jones, could potentially fill a larger role in the receiving game.
Hodgins himself acknowledges his skills, saying, "I know I’m not the fastest blazer in the world, but I try to win with my route-running and my physicality. I focus on my strengths and use them to my advantage." These skills helped him record 42 catches for 459 yards and five touchdowns in just 10 games, including the playoffs, after being signed by the Giants following his release from the Bills last November. With this kind of production and the role he's expected to play, Hodgins stands a solid chance of surpassing the Over/Under of 500.5 receiving yards set for him this season.
With these players, the NY Giants are a team to watch this season. Whether you're looking to bet the Over/Under or considering long-shot MVP and Comeback Player of the Year wagers, keeping an eye on these athletes could provide valuable insights for placing informed bets.
Offseason Chess Moves
The New York Giants' offseason maneuvers have been meticulously orchestrated with one goal in mind: to build an ecosystem where quarterback Daniel Jones can excel. Initiated by the bold acquisition of tight end Darren Waller on March 15, the Giants sought to transform their offense by providing Jones with a high-caliber, field-stretching target. This was quickly complemented by drafting Jalin Hyatt, the Biletnikoff Award winner, adding another layer of verticality to the aerial attack tailored for Jones.
This commitment to bolstering the skill positions was paralleled by efforts to provide Jones with a more fortified pocket. Drafting Center John Michael Schmitz marked the end of a revolving door at that position, giving Jones a long-term ally on the line. The move to draft Schmitz was complemented by a monumental decision to sign left tackle Andrew Thomas to a groundbreaking five-year, $117.5 million contract extension in the days leading up to training camp. This record-setting deal, which included $67 million guaranteed at signing, further solidifies the pocket from which Jones will operate and marks a long-term investment in his protection.
Beyond offense, the Giants also ramped up their defense. The draft addition of cornerback Deonte Banks and the signings of inside linebacker Bobby Okereke and defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence were calculated to create a more formidable defense. This stronger unit aims not just for stops but for turnovers that would grant Jones more offensive possessions.
The decision to re-sign running back Saquon Barkley on a one-year deal cannot be understated in its importance to Jones' success. Barkley, who amassed an astonishing 1,650 yards from scrimmage last season—more than double any other Giants player—functions as much more than a safety valve; he's a game-changer. His presence in the backfield not only takes immense pressure off Jones but also fundamentally alters how defenses prepare for the Giants. This deal with Barkley serves as a strategic move to diversify the offense, forcing defenses to spread their focus and thereby giving Jones more latitude in both the passing and play-action game.
The capstone of the offseason was unmistakably the contract extension handed to Jones, a significant financial investment that underscores the Giants' unwavering focus: setting up Jones to spearhead a new era of competitiveness. From draft picks to acquisitions and key signings, every maneuver leads back to this fundamental strategy of positioning Jones for both immediate and long-term success. The true crucible for these calculated moves now becomes the field of play. Can Jones deliver?
Numbers That Matter – A Power Ratings Perspective
The New York Giants, once an NFL cornerstone, clawed their way out of a dismal situation in 2022 after a two-win season in 2021. The turnaround, credited largely to the arrival of NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll, manifested in a substantial seven-win improvement. Yet, underlying metrics cast a nuanced shadow. According to various indicators, the Giants were either close to or just below average in team strength. This suggests they might have been somewhat fortunate to tally as many wins as they did. As the 2023 season looms, the pressing issues focus on whether Daboll can sustain this positive momentum and if quarterback Daniel Jones, who dramatically reduced his turnovers last season, can unlock further untapped potential.
Football Outsiders' DVOA Metrics
Come the close of 2022, the Giants found themselves ranked 22nd in Total DVOA and 17th in Weighted DVOA, suggesting both areas for improvement and signs of recent momentum. The diverging paths of their Offensive and Defensive DVOA are worth noting. The offense, sitting at ninth, benefitted greatly from Daniel Jones' career-low 1.1% interception rate and a drastic reduction in fumbles. In contrast, their 30th rank in Defensive DVOA raises concerns, especially considering it was Don "Wink" Martindale's first season as the Giants' defensive coordinator following his tenure with the Ravens.
Total DVOA: 22nd
Weighted DVOA (which considers recent performances more heavily): 17th.
Offensive DVOA: 9th
Defensive DVOA: 30th
An additional layer of complexity arises when considering the team's aggressive defensive tactics: they led the NFL in blitz rate at 39.7% of plays. However, this strategy has not yet paid off in terms of sack production, as they finished just 13th in the league in this category—an aspect they'll need to refine to disrupt opposing offenses more effectively.
NFELO Power Ratings
In the realm of NFL Elo (NFELO) rankings, which are fueled by EPA-based algorithms, the Giants maintained an 18th-place standing, translating to -0.2 points relative to an average NFL team.
Kevin Cole's Power Ratings
NFL analytics luminary Kevin Cole categorized the Giants as 15th overall, calculating them to be +0.5 points superior to an average NFL team. Cole's breakdown attributed significant value to the offense, partly fueled by Jones' improved turnover metrics, while flagging the defense, which stood at 28th, as a critical concern.
Overall, the metrics depict a Giants team navigating a crossroads. On one side lies a promising offense, aided by Jones' dramatic decline in turnovers, but on the other, a vulnerable defense that failed to rise to the occasion under Martindale's first-year leadership. In the competitive NFL landscape where offensive and defensive harmony is a requisite for sustainable success, the Giants find themselves at a critical juncture. Offseason moves are poised to fortify a faltering defense and the eyes of analytics and fans alike will be on Daniel Jones, who enters the new season with heightened expectations.
Amid this mix of proven skills and untapped potential, the real thrill comes from the yet-to-be-answered variables. Daniel Jones and the defense, now more than ever, shoulder the weight of heightened expectations. The upcoming season thus presents an intriguing opportunity for the Giants to defy existing analytical projections and elevate their game, adding a layer of compelling unpredictability to the year ahead.
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