Setting the Stage
Following their impressive 13-4 record last season, the Minnesota Vikings step into the 2023 season facing a cold front of uncertainty. Despite their strong showing, critics question their ability to match last year's performance. This skepticism was fueled when their promising run was cut short by a playoff loss to the Giants, who are predicted by Vegas to have a hard time in 2023 with a projected win total of only Over/Under 7.5. Doubts are further stirred by concerns about the team's ability to replicate their absurd 11-1 SU record last year in one-score games. To compound the challenges, the Vikings find themselves up against the difficulty of having a first-place schedule. The betting market exemplifies this skepticism, with Vegas predicting the Vikings to win between 8.5 and 9 games, despite their 13 victories last season. This cloud of skepticism has cast a shadow over the Vikings, prompting many to question whether last season was more than just a fleeting made-for-TV moment, perhaps funded by Netflix, which happened to include the biggest comeback in NFL history.
Despite flaming out in the wild-card round last season, the Vikings remain a captivating team, boasting a promising line-up that includes receiver Justin Jefferson, the 2022 Offensive Player of the Year. Jefferson's prowess on the field has earned the team five prime-time appearances in the upcoming season, raising the stakes, and setting the stage for some potentially thrilling football. In a testament to the tight race anticipated in the NFC North, two of the Vikings' last three games will be against the Detroit Lions, potentially determining the divisional title.
The team's off-season has not been without its shocks. The Vikings bid farewell to receiver Adam Thielen, a key player whose record includes the third-most receptions (534) and receiving touchdowns (55) in the team's history. Thielen will now join the Carolina Panthers, marking Week 4's game in Charlotte a notable 'revenge game'. The Vikings also shifted focus to tight end T.J. Hockenson and receiver K.J. Osborn as the primary options opposite Jefferson.
The Vikings face an uphill battle, with the odds predicting a sub-.500 record in both their first five games and their last five games. The early games include matchups against both Super Bowl LVII participants, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, and the Los Angeles Chargers, another 2022 playoff team. Their final five opponents include the Cincinnati Bengals, an AFC Championship Game participant, and three tricky divisional games.
At the helm, quarterback Kirk Cousins, who allowed viewers a glimpse into his career through the Netflix docuseries "Quarterback," has his work cut out for him. Cousins' interactions with coach Kevin O’Connell revealed a deep understanding between player and coach, a factor that could impact the Vikings' success this season. Despite this comradery, in 2022, Cousins was hit a staggering 131 times, the highest in the NFL. It's a figure the team will look to reduce to ensure their quarterback's sustainability on the field.
As we prepare for the Minnesota Vikings' season, the stakes are higher than ever. Sweeping roster changes and a daunting schedule are set to test the resilience of Jefferson, Cousins & company. It's their time to prove they can weather the storm and defy the odds. Amid the unfolding drama, the Vikings are in line for an impressive five prime-time games, adding a theatrical flair to the season. With the spotlight firmly in place and anticipation mounting, the burning question is: Can they deliver a season worthy of being the next big hit, or will Netflix need to scout for a new quarterback to star in season two of "Quarterback"? Time will tell if the Vikings can produce a blockbuster season, or if they'll be left reshuffling the cast when the credits roll.
Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg discusses his betting prediction for the Vikings' upcoming season with RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Minnesota Vikings has remained stable throughout the off-season. The Vikings have not seen any noticeable shift in their odds since the end of last season.
Bookmakers opened in February with odds of 40/1 for the Vikings to win Super Bowl 58, according to Pregame.com's consensus from seven sportsbooks. The same odds remain months later, placing them in the middle of the pack as the 16th favorite.
In terms of the divisional race, the Vikings stand at +290 odds for the NFC North, which places them right behind the Lions but ahead of the Bears and the Packers.
NFC North Odds (consensus odds as of July 21st):
DET Lions: +140
MIN Vikings: +290
CHI Bears: +400
GB Packers: +400
These odds portray a potentially competitive division, with the Lions unexpectedly leading the pack and the Vikings just slightly behind. 2023 marks the first time in the current divisional alignment, which has been in place since 2002, that the Detroit Lions have been favored to win the NFC North.
Shifting focus to the NFL Win Totals, the Vikings' over/under sits at a steady 8.5 games, with the Over juiced at -130, implying the market believes the Vikings are more likely to surpass this number.
Minnesota's odds of making the playoffs for a second consecutive season hover around the even mark, suggesting a closely contested race.
Will the Vikings Make the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs?
Yes: +100 (~48%)
No: -120 (~52%)
Notably, the Vikings have not booked back-to-back trips to the post-season since the 2008 & 2009 seasons.
As the Vikings enter the 2023 season, they face a series of pivotal questions. Will Kirk Cousins prove his mettle in big games, including the five prime-time fixtures? Can the defense, notably a weak point last season, improve following their new acquisitions? And with the departure of Dalvin Cook, can the Vikings maintain their potent rushing attack? As these questions linger, the betting market seems to adopt a wait-and-see approach to the Vikings, setting the stage for what promises to be a compelling season in Minnesota.
Week 1 Showdown: A Duel of Fresh Starts
In the inaugural game of the NFL season, the Minnesota Vikings are primed to battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what promises to be a gripping NFC showdown. This match-up is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 10th, taking place in the intimidating U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The opening betting odds provided the Vikings with a -6.5 edge over the Buccaneers, projecting a total of 45 points. Although there was a fleeting increase to -7 in the Vikings' favor in late June, the line swiftly reverted to its original -6.5 after betting trended towards the underdog Buccaneers, underlining the game's uncertainty. This is the biggest favorite role the Vikings have been in Week 1 since 2001, the heyday of the Daunte Culpepper/Randy Moss era in Minneapolis
After triumphantly clinching the NFC North championship in the 2022 season with a commendable 13-4 record, the Vikings are now facing questions about their ability to replicate their unprecedented 11-1 success in one-score games in the coming season. Yet, their offense remains a formidable force, led by Kirk Cousins and the unstoppable Justin Jefferson. Despite significant departures, including Adam Thielen to the Panthers and Dalvin Cook's release, the Vikings’ offensive arsenal continues to intimidate with standouts like Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson.
The main spectacle of this clash, however, lies in the Vikings' renewed defense under the guidance of their new coordinator, Brian Flores, the former Dolphins Head Coach. Despite concerns about the Vikings' defensive vulnerabilities, the new signings and Flores's guidance present an intriguing match-up against the Buccaneers' offense.
Entering a post-Tom Brady era, the Buccaneers are facing their own trials. With the legendary quarterback's retirement, former Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield is stepping in, his performance being a key to the new season. The potent offensive trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White, under the supervision of their new offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, promises a compelling counter to the Vikings' bolstered defense.
This Week 1 showdown sets the stage for a captivating test of each team's new dynamics. The face-off between the Buccaneers' restructured offense and the Vikings' revamped defense, as well as each team's respective efforts to build upon past successes and overcome new challenges, will provide an insightful glimpse into what to expect from these two venerable franchises in the 2023 season.
Player Spotlights
Kirk Cousins (QB)
Over/Under 4300.5 Passing Yards
The veteran Minnesota Vikings quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has proven to be one of the most reliable QBs in the league. Having played all but one regular-season game since joining Minnesota in 2018, Cousins’ presence has been essential. His average of 262 passing yards per game in Minnesota is commendable, and if that stays consistent throughout the season, it will lead to a nearly 4,500-yard pace. Furthermore, his profile changed considerably in 2022 under Coach O'Connell's offensive scheme, where Cousins saw his average depth of target reduce but saw an increase in red zone passing attempts. As a result, Cousins was second only to Patrick Mahomes in both attempts inside the 20 and inside the 10, providing a robust touchdown floor for fantasy backers. However, Cousins' 2022 performance also highlighted a key concern - he was hit 131 times, more than any other quarterback in the league. The Vikings must focus on reducing this in 2023 to ensure their QB's durability. Despite these concerns, with the Vikings choosing not to draft a QB and keeping Nick Mullens as their backup, Cousins is expected to take every meaningful snap for Minnesota this season, barring injury.
Alexander Mattison (RB)
Over/Under 900.5 Rushing Yards
With Dalvin Cook now out of the picture, Alexander Mattison takes the mantle as the lead back for the Vikings. Though he struggled in 2022 while splitting carries with Cook, averaging only 3.8 yards per attempt, Mattison has shown glimpses of his efficiency in his first two seasons (2019-2020), where he averaged 4.6 and 4.5 yards per attempt, respectively. In a post-Zimmer Vikings team committed to passing, Mattison's significance may not be as highlighted as other RBs in the league. However, the Vikings’ offensive line was graded as the fourth-best run-blocking unit in 2022, which could aid Mattison in regaining his earlier efficiency. Mattison's performance this season could be the dark horse in the Vikings' offensive strategy.
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Over/Under 1400.5 Receiving Yards (highest in the NFL)
Over/Under 105.5 Receptions (highest in the NFL)
100/1 to win NFL MVP
15/1 to win Offensive Player of the Year
+550 to lead the NFL in Receiving Yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
+130 to Have 1500+ Regular Season Receiving Yards at DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Jefferson's breakthrough in 2022 has brought him to the forefront of the NFL's most promising wide receivers. His usage saw a change under O'Connell's offense - his average depth of target dipped to 10.7, but this led to a smooth weekly fantasy output in a Cooper Kupp-like phenomenon. Notably, Jefferson tied with Travis Kelce for the league lead with 19 targets in the green zone, indicating a shift towards more short and intermediate routes. Coming into 2023, Jefferson is set to maintain, if not improve, his excellent performance from the previous season. His over/under of 1400.5 receiving yards is the highest in the NFL, underscoring the high expectations from him this year. Additionally, Jefferson is listed at 100/1 to win NFL MVP and 15/1 to win Offensive Player of the Year - an award he clinched in 2022. Should Jefferson continue his momentum, he's a prime candidate to make NFL history by becoming the first receiver to reach 2,000 yards in a single season.
Offseason Chess Moves
As the 2023 NFL season approaches, all eyes are on the Minnesota Vikings as they unveil their reinvented lineup. This transformation didn't occur overnight; it's a product of several calculated moves made during the offseason. From shuffling their coaching staff to welcoming new recruits and parting ways with seasoned veterans, the Vikings have boldly reshaped their team structure.
In early February before the 2022 NFL season hadn't even officially wrapped up, the Vikings made their first bold move of the offseason by bringing in Brian Flores as their new defensive coordinator. Flores, renowned for his tenure as head coach for the Miami Dolphins and a defensive assistant for the Pittsburgh Steelers, promises to bring a fresh perspective to the team's defensive lineup. This appointment signals Minnesota's commitment to fortifying their defense and cultivating an invigorated team for the coming season.
During the offseason, the Vikings were particularly focused on enhancing their secondary. In their bid to amplify their defensive prowess, they welcomed ex-Arizona Cardinals cornerback Byron Murphy Jr., who despite a previous injury, has shown substantial promise. The team will closely monitor Murphy's fitness, expecting him to provide a considerable boost, granted he maintains optimal health.
The team, however, also saw the departure of prominent players like cornerback Patrick Peterson, who moved to Pittsburgh, and linebacker Eric Kendricks, now a Charger. Interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson left for Cleveland, and tight end Irv Smith Jr. relocated to Cincinnati. The absence of these influential players, particularly Peterson and Kendricks, necessitates new recruits and younger players stepping up. The Vikings have drafted 14 defensive players over the past three NFL drafts and hope to see this investment pay dividends under Flores.
In this year’s draft, the Vikings judiciously sought to use their picks to fill the gaps in the roster and usher in potential future stars. High on their draft list was wide receiver Jordan Addison, who they envision will compensate for the void left by the surprising release of Adam Thielen. Addison has a proven track record of excellence in route-running and improved handling.
Additionally, the Vikings capitalized on the draft to reinforce their secondary, picking USC cornerback Mekhi Blackmon in the third round. Blackmon's selection is regarded as one of the smartest moves by the Vikings, considering their earlier struggles in the secondary. With his high-end coverage skills and notable college stats, Blackmon is primed to be a key player from the onset.
Other notable draft choices include LSU cornerback Jay Ward in the fourth round and UAB running back DeWayne McBride in the seventh. McBride's agility in evading tackles, which ranked him third in his draft class, makes him a particularly exhilarating selection.
In a transition that generated considerable buzz, the Vikings cut ties with Dalvin Cook, their star running back who had made pro-bowl appearances in each of the previous four seasons (2019-2022). This unexpected move signaled the team's desire to revitalize their offensive strategy.
Though the roster underwent significant changes, the Vikings successfully assembled a strong lineup while navigating their salary cap issues. Nevertheless, the pressure is on for this renewed roster to deliver and build on their unexpected 2022 season success.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
Despite the Minnesota Vikings' laudable 13-4 record in the 2022 season, their performance, when assessed through advanced metrics and power ratings, did not mirror their victory count. A deeper analysis into these metrics paints a more nuanced picture of their performance, underscoring the disparity between their impressive win count and the underlying performance indicators.
A closer look at the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) reveals some telling details. DVOA, a performance metric that compares a team's efficiency to the league average, positioned the Vikings at the 27th spot. This lower standing in the DVOA reflects some inefficiencies in their overall performance compared to the average NFL team. Their 28th spot in Weighted DVOA, which places more emphasis on later games, further underscores these inefficiencies. This suggests that the team's performance didn't show much improvement over the season's progression.
When broken down into offensive and defensive DVOA, the numbers point towards a rather ordinary offensive performance, and a need for improvement in their defensive game. The Vikings ranked 19th in Offensive DVOA and a concerning 28th in Defensive DVOA. These ratings suggest that despite their strong win count, the team needs to shore up both their offensive efficiency and, more critically, their defensive game.
In the NFL Elo (NFELO), a ranking system that uses Expected Points Added (EPA) based algorithms, the Vikings were positioned at a middling 17th. This average standing indicates that despite their high win count, the team's overall play didn't markedly surpass that of a typical NFL team according to the NFELO metric.
Kevin Cole, a noted analyst, had a similar assessment. He ranked the Vikings 22nd overall, -1.31 points worse than an average team. Cole's breakdown was even more illuminating. Despite the team's success in terms of wins, the offense added only +0.53 points of value, ranking them only 17th. Their defense was ranked even lower, at 29th, subtracting -1.84 points of value, indicating that their defensive performance detracted from their overall power rating.
While the Vikings had a successful season in terms of victories, advanced metrics, and power ratings suggest they were not as strong as their win-loss record indicated. Despite their respectable win tally, the Vikings demonstrated average efficiency, with particular areas of concern in their defensive play. As they look forward to the next season, these numbers underscore the need for the Vikings to fortify both their offensive and defensive capabilities, if they wish to solidify their standing and compete more effectively.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg's recommended bet for the 2023 Vikings season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of Scott's Pregame picks here.
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