Setting the Stage: Burrow's Crucial Season and the Bengals' Balancing Act

As the Cincinnati Bengals gear up for the 2023 NFL season, all eyes are on Joe Burrow, their transformative figure who has been a beacon of hope for the franchise since his arrival as the #1 overall pick in 2020. Burrow has been nothing short of heroic for a franchise in dire need of a hero. His stellar performance last season - boasting a 100.8 QB rating and throwing for over 4,400 yards while leading the Bengals to a 12-4 record and a second consecutive trip to the AFC title game - has only heightened expectations for a significant contract extension, potentially resetting the marketplace in the wake of Justin Herbert's recent lucrative deal.

Burrow's journey to this pivotal moment has been fraught with challenges, including a recent calf injury that cast doubt on his participation in the season opener against the Cleveland Browns. Despite this, he rejoined practice in the final week before the season starts, fueling anticipation for his return to the field. Concurrently, discussions about a substantial contract extension are intensifying. As Week 1 approaches rapidly, the uncertainty surrounding the contract negotiations adds a layer of complexity, with potential implications for Burrow's role and the team's future dynamics.

Parallel to Burrow's individual journey, the Bengals have been diligently crafting a team capable of reaching new heights. The secondary unit has seen significant changes, with newcomers ready to make their mark. The exits of Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell have made room for fresh talents like Nick Scott and draft pick Jordan Battle, forming the new defensive cornerstone under coordinator Lou Anarumo.

Adding stability and leadership to this young group is cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who is making a comeback from an ACL injury. Together with potential breakout star Cam Taylor-Britt and the reliable Mike Hilton, they are poised to strengthen the defense, creating a formidable barrier against the league's top receivers.

Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Cincinnati Bengals 2023 season, with Sleepy J. making an official recommendation on a wager involving the Bengals Win Total.

In the midst of these developments, Joe Mixon has taken a pragmatic step to foster team growth, reworking his contract to lower his 2023 cap hit. This move, aimed at enhancing the team's financial flexibility, showcases a cooperative mindset, setting a tone of unity and ambition for the season.

Speaking to the team's official website, Mixon echoed the team's commitment, stating, "I see the bigger picture. I see the task at hand and what we're trying to build, and in order to keep other players here and pieces here, sometimes you have to sacrifice." His perspective underscores the collective effort required to shape a potential Super Bowl contender, emphasizing that this year is the time to make sacrifices for the potential championship team.

As the Bengals prepare for their season opener in Cleveland, a mix of expectations and uncertainties surround the team. The pending contract extensions for Burrow and Tee Higgins are a focal point, with the franchise eager to secure their long-term contributions. Despite the complexities of the evolving market dynamics, there is optimism about reaching an agreement that aligns with the team's future goals.

As the clock ticks down to the kickoff, the Bengals stand at a significant juncture, facing decisions that could influence the path of their franchise for years if not decades to come. The upcoming season promises challenges and opportunities, as the team seeks to forge a new chapter in its storied history. As anticipation builds, the spotlight remains on leader Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of solidifying his legacy and guaranteeing his future as a Cincinnati Bengals legend.

    

The Betting Landscape

The Cincinnati Bengals are stepping into the 2023 season with a potent mix of youthful vigor and seasoned strategy, a combination that has caught the keen eye of the betting market. The trajectory of their futures market odds has been a testament to their perceived potential, despite a slight dip due to Joe Burrow's calf injury during training camp. Here's a closer look at how the betting landscape has shaped up for the Bengals.

At the close of Super Bowl 57 in February, the Bengals were positioned at +950 according to Pregame's consensus odds, and have only adjusted slightly over the course of the offseason, currently sitting at 10/1.  According to the latest Vegas odds, the Bengals' chances to win it all are currently behind only the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, and 49ers.

The fluctuation in their win totals has been more pronounced, especially in light of the recent developments surrounding Burrow's health. Initially, the Bengals were neck-and-neck with the Philadelphia Eagles, holding the second-highest win projection just behind the Chiefs. However, the market has shown signs of recalibration, with diverging opinions among bookmakers.

 

Top 5 Highest NFL Win Totals (Odds as of September 3rd)

KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135) (~11.7 expected wins)

PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -120) (~11.4 expected wins)

CIN Bengals: O/U 11.0 Wins (~11.0 expected wins)

SF 49ers: O/U 11 Wins (Under -120) (~10.9 expected wins)

BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -150) (~10.9 expected wins)

 

The Bengals' latest Vegas Win total represents a downward adjustment from the pre-injury consensus of 11.5 at -110 on either side, indicating a slight cooling off in the market's optimism. Notably, there is considerable divergence in their win total with some books offering Under 11.5 with a significant vigorish of -145, while other books such as DraftKings Sportsbook offer Over 10.5 with vigorish of -130. 

In the divisional landscape, the Bengals have experienced a roller-coaster ride. They started as +115 favorites in the early offseason, but the re-signing of Lamar Jackson by the Ravens and Burrow's calf injury have seen their odds drift to a current +150. Despite these shifts, the Bengals are still favored to clinch the AFC North, a feat they have achieved in the last two seasons. A third consecutive win, which would be a first in the franchise's history, is very much within reach.

 

AFC North Division Odds (consensus odds as of September 3rd)

CIN Bengals: +150

BAL Ravens: +220

CLE Browns: +330

PIT Steelers: +475

  

With strong leadership under Burrow, the Bengals have a significant chance to carve out a historic path this season. The playoff odds further underscore this sentiment, with a 70% implied probability of making it to the playoffs, as opposed to a 30% chance of missing out.

 

Cincinnati Bengals to Make the Playoffs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 3rd)

Yes: -255 (~70% implied odds)

No: +215 (~30% implied odds)

 

As the season unfolds, the Bengals are expected to leverage their strong passing cohort, spearheaded by Burrow and supported by a formidable receiver lineup including Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd. The defense, though not star-studded, is noted for its strategic depth and versatility, attributes that could potentially make it one of the NFL's most undervalued units.

Entering the 2023 season, the betting landscape for the Cincinnati Bengals paints a picture of optimism for an often down-and-out franchise, with a significant focus on their performance in the initial games. The market is keenly watching how the team navigates the early challenges in light of Burrow's recovery. The Bengals have the elements in place to not only defend their AFC North title but also to make a deep run in the playoffs, potentially solidifying their status as one of the AFC's elite teams.

   

Week 1 Showdown: Business Trip up to Cleveland

As the curtain rises on the 2023 NFL season, all eyes are on the AFC North clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. Hosted by the Browns at 1 PM Eastern on Sunday, September 10th, this matchup presents an interesting set of variables that have caught the attention of bettors and fans alike.

Initially, the Bengals were favored with a -2.5-point spread against the Browns. While that number remains the same, it's worth mentioning the line did make a detour. Following Joe Burrow's calf strain in training camp, the spread narrowed to Bengals -1. However, Burrow's speedy recovery has brought the line full circle, settling it back at its starting point of Bengals -2.5 (O/U 47.5).

The Bengals, reigning as the two-time champions of the AFC North, are poised to extend their successful streak. However, the betting odds suggest that the opening game won't be a straightforward affair. The spotlight is firmly on Cincinnati's star quarterback, Joe Burrow, who has historically found the Browns to be a tough nut to crack, holding a 1-4 record against them. Moreover, the Bengals are only 1-7 SU (3-4-1 ATS) in the first two weeks of the season in the last four seasons under head coach, Zac Taylor.

The Browns, although not one of the top two favorites for the division title, have shown significant improvements since the last season. The continued integration of Deshaun Watson could potentially prove transformative for the Browns, making them a team to watch out for. A victory against the Bengals in the opening game could potentially set the stage for an exciting and unpredictable season, much to the delight of the Cleveland faithful.

Analyzing the betting trends, the Bengals seem to find themselves in an unfavorable historical spot. Looking at the modern era of the NFL (2012-present), Week 1 favorites have a paltry 44.8% hit rate (73-90 ATS), with favorites playing in the division in Week 1 seeing their cover percentage drop to 31.5% (17-37 ATS). Moreover, road division favorites, like the Bengals here visiting Cleveland, have recorded a horrendous 11.8% ATS record (2-15) since 2012. Given that the Bengals fit all these categories for their Week 1 match, these statistics might hint at a potential worrying upset for the Bengals, not unlike when they dropped their opening game to the Steelers a season ago.

In that game, Joe Burrow, who similarly had a limited training camp, committed five turnovers (four interceptions and a lost fumble), three more than he would in any other game for the rest of the season.

Considering these dynamics, the Browns not only have a good chance to cover the +2.5-point spread but also emerge as potential outright winners. This scenario presents an enticing opportunity for both Browns fans and bettors seeking value.

The Week 1 clash between the Bengals and the Browns promises to deliver a thrilling mix of high-energy football, strategic gameplay, and an exhilarating betting landscape. Whether you're a fan or a bettor, this AFC North rivalry game is shaping up to be the perfect curtain-raiser for the 2023 NFL season.

  

Player Spotlights

Joe Burrow (QB)

Over/Under 4400.5 Passing Yards

Over/Under 33.5 Passing TDs

+750 to win NFL MVP (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Joe Burrow, the linchpin of the Bengals' offense, is gearing up for another potentially explosive season. With impressive MVP odds, only trailing last year's winner Patrick Mahomes, Burrow is expected to continue his upward trajectory. Despite a devastating ACL/MCL injury in his rookie season, he has consistently surpassed 4,400 passing yards in the last two seasons. His adaptability was evident in the previous season where he adopted a more conservative approach, reducing his time to throw and average depth of target (aDOT), which significantly decreased his interception rate. This shift in strategy, which resulted in a commendable .165 EPA per play, indicates a maturing quarterback who is adept at minimizing mistakes without compromising on efficiency. Burrow's resilience and evolving gameplay make him a formidable force and a promising bet for the upcoming season.

  

Joe Mixon (RB)

Over/Under 825.5 Rushing Yards

Joe Mixon enters this season with a point to prove. Despite facing criticism regarding his performance and cap hit last season, Mixon has shown a team-first attitude by restructuring his contract to facilitate the Bengals' Super Bowl aspirations. His commitment to the "bigger picture" is evident, and this season presents an opportunity for Mixon to silence his critics. With Samaje Perine's departure, Mixon has the chance to solidify his position as the primary back, potentially increasing his involvement in passing situations. If Mixon can capitalize on this opportunity, he might not only exceed the over/under on rushing yards but also emerge as a vital cog in the Bengals' offensive machinery.

  

Ja'Marr Chase (WR)

Over/Under 1275.5 Receiving Yards

Ja'Marr Chase, a beacon of talent in the Bengals' receiving corps, is expected to continue his stellar performance this season. Despite a dip in long receptions last year, Chase compensated by increasing his catches per game, showcasing his adaptability and skill set. His significant share in targets and air yards indicates his central role in the Bengals' offensive strategy. Chase's consistent performance, coupled with his undeniable talent, positions him as a top-tier receiver, promising another season of high yardage and potential big plays.

  

Tee Higgins (WR)

Over/Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards

Tee Higgins, a vital component in the Bengals' potent receiving duo, is gearing up to potentially surpass the 1000.5 receiving yards mark this season. His proven reliability as a WR2, especially highlighted during Chase's absence last season, showcases his readiness to assume a more significant role if necessary. The Bengals stand as the only team projected to have two wide receivers crossing the 1,000 receiving yards threshold this season, a testament to the formidable partnership between Higgins and Chase. The closest competition to this dynamic duo is the Philadelphia Eagles pairing of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, who are projected to record O/U 1050.5 and 975.5 receiving yards, respectively. A fully healthy season from the Bengals' dominant WR duo could influence the team's priorities when deciding whether to keep the pair intact by extending Higgins a lucrative contract extension heading into the next offseason.

  

The Bengals' success this season hinges significantly on these key players. With Burrow at the helm, showcasing a blend of maturity and skill, and a motivated Mixon ready to prove his worth, the Bengals are gearing up for a promising season. The dynamic duo of Chase and Higgins in the receiving department adds another layer of depth to their offense, promising an exciting and potentially successful campaign. As always, monitoring these players' performances will be crucial for bettors aiming to make informed decisions throughout the season.

  

Offseason Chess Moves

There's a palpable reason the Cincinnati Bengals are the final team we are previewing in our series, holding the 32nd spot out of 32. The air in Cincinnati is thick with anticipation, as the franchise's cornerstone player, Joe Burrow, remains on the cusp of a monumental contract extension, a move that could potentially redefine the Bengals' trajectory in the coming years. This lingering uncertainty casts a significant shadow over an offseason that has otherwise been marked by decisive moves aimed at bolstering the team's competitive edge.

In a departure from their usual conservative approach to free agency, the Bengals have opened their coffers to secure the services of offensive tackle Orlando Brown, a move hailed as the best of the offseason. This acquisition addresses a persistent issue that has plagued the Bengals since Joe Burrow's arrival in 2020, offering a fortified shield for Burrow's blind side. Brown, with his impressive track record of allowing just 16 sacks over his five-year NFL career, is expected to be a linchpin in the offensive line, providing the much-needed stability and protection for Burrow.

The Bengals have also undertaken a significant revamp of their secondary, parting ways with Jesse Bates III, Vonn Bell, and Eli Apple. In their stead, Nick Scott and Sidney Jones have been brought in, signaling a fresh start and a new direction for the team's defensive strategies. The draft saw the Bengals focusing on strengthening their defense, with notable picks like Myles Murphy, an edge rusher from Clemson, and DJ Turner, a cornerback from Michigan. Murphy, despite needing to enhance his core strength and hand usage, has shown promising flashes of brilliance, potentially adding a new dimension to the Bengals' pass rush.

On the offensive front, the Bengals have added depth with the acquisition of wide receiver Charlie Jones, a promising talent who enjoyed a breakout campaign with Purdue. His impressive performance in the Big 10 championship game against Michigan, where he recorded 13 catches for 162 yards, hints at the potential impact he could have in the coming season.

However, the spotlight remains firmly on Joe Burrow, whose contract extension hangs in the balance as the season opener approaches. The anticipation builds, with both the franchise and Burrow's camp maintaining a stoic silence on the progress of the negotiations. As the clock ticks down, the Bengals find themselves at a crucial juncture, where securing Burrow's future with the team could set the stage for a successful run in the 2023 season and beyond.

As the Bengals gear up to face the Browns in their season opener, the focus is on finalizing a deal that aligns with the aspirations and goals of both the player and the team. The consensus is that an agreement is on the horizon, a move that would not only end speculation but also allow Burrow to channel his undivided attention towards steering the Bengals to new heights.

The Bengals' offseason moves reflect a strategic approach, characterized by significant acquisitions and a focus on building a well-rounded team capable of vying for the top spot. The potential contract extension for Burrow remains the final piece of the puzzle, a development that could potentially usher in a new era of success for the franchise. The anticipation builds, as fans and experts alike wait with bated breath to see how the Bengals' offseason saga unfolds, setting the stage for what promises to be an exhilarating 2023 season.

  

Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective

The Cincinnati Bengals have emerged as an enigma in the sports betting landscape, marked by divergent rankings across traditional and advanced metrics. While the Bengals sat squarely in the middle of the pack in traditional indicators like Net Yards Per Play—15th on offense and 16th on defense—the team fared significantly better in more modern statistical measures such as Expected Points Added and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).

Take DVOA, for instance, a performance metric employed by Football Outsiders that evaluates a team's effectiveness compared to the league average. The Bengals held an impressive 5th position in the overall DVOA rankings, which encapsulates their well-rounded gameplay. This included a 4th place for their offense and an 11th place for their defense. What stands out here is the efficacy of their offense, almost making it into the top three, which adds another dimension to their statistical narrative. Notably, this achievement marks a significant milestone for the team: 2023 represented the first time since 2016 that the Bengals finished the season rated as a top-5 team according to DVOA.

Another noteworthy metric is NFELO, a power ranking system that leans heavily on EPA (Expected Points Added) calculations. In their end-of-the-year rankings, NFELO rated the Bengals as the number one team in the league, +6.6 points better than an average NFL team. The fact that the Bengals topped this list adds an extra layer of credibility to their performance in 2022, challenging traditional views that may not have had them on the radar.

Further support for Cincinnati's strong play comes from Kevin Cole's analytics. Cole rated the Bengals as the 3rd best team overall, a considerable +4.75 points better than an average team. When broken down, the offense was assessed to contribute +3.39 points of value, ranking 3rd, while the defense was assessed to contribute +1.37 points of value, ranking 5th. Such closely matched contributions from both sides of the ball paint the Bengals as a well-balanced unit.

To sum up, the Bengals' performance in 2022 is a testament to the value of advanced metrics. While traditional yardage metrics might not capture their effectiveness, their strong showing in DVOA, NFELO, and Kevin Cole's rankings highlights their prowess and potential. These numbers not only solidify the Bengals' status as a competitive force in the NFL but also emphasize the need to approach their 2023 prospects with a nuanced perspective, considering the insights provided by advanced metrics.

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From Our Podcast: Check out Sleepy J's recommended bet for the 2023 Bengals season.  Like what you hear? You can find all of Sleepy J's picks here.

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NFL Team Preview Series:

AFC North

2023 Cleveland Browns Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 Baltimore Ravens Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview - Betting Prediction

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AFC West

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AFC South

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AFC East

2023 Miami Dolphins Team Preview - Betting Prediction 

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2023 New York Jets Team Preview - Betting Prediction

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NFC West

2023 LA Rams Team Preview - Betting Prediction

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NFC North

2023 Detroit Lions Team Preview - Betting Prediction

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NFC East

2023 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 Dallas Cowboys Team Preview - Betting Prediction

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NFC South

2023 Carolina Panthers Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 New Orleans Saints Team Preview - Betting Prediction

2023 Atlanta Falcons Team Preview - Betting Prediction

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