The NBA Finals begin tonight and we will see the Miami Heat travel to the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas to take on the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of their best-of seven series. The game has a start time of 9:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ABC. Vegas odds have the Spurs listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total sits at 198.5.
Analysis: The Miami Heat are making their 4th straight trip to the NBA Finals and they got here by beating Charlotte in 4 games, Brooklyn in 5 games and Indiana in 6 games. The Heat have gone 66-31 on the year overall, including just 26-22 on the road and they are just 2-5 in their last 7 games in San Antonio. The Heat have averaged 101.7 ppg on 50% shooting overall this year, while in the post-season they have put up 99.1 ppg on 49.7% shooting. The post-season scoring is led by Lebron James, who is averaging 27.1 ppg so far, while also leading the team in rebounding at 6.8 rpg and assists (5.0). Dwayne Wade (18.7 ppg) and Chris Bosh (15.2 ppg) have also averaged in double figures for the Heat so far. Defensively the Heat have been very stout in the playoffs, allowing just 92.1 ppg on 46.2% shooting. They do play good defense, but that is more of a reflection of who they have played in the post-season thus far. Tonight they take on by far the best offense they have faced in the Post season so far.
The San Antonio Spurs came into the post season with the league’s best record and have and have parlayed their #1 seed into a date with the Heat in the NBA Finals. The Spurs got here by taking out Dallas in 7 games, Portland in 5 and Oklahoma City in 6. The Spurs are now at 74-26 on the year overall, including 41-10 at home and have destroyed their last 7 opponents on this floor, winning each game at least 17 points. One thing to keep an eye on is how Tony Parker’s ankle holds up. He is listed as probable for Game 1. The Spurs have averaged 105.6 ppg on 48.5% shooting overall this year, while in the post-season they have put up 106.6 ppg on 48.2% shooting. In the playoffs the scoring has been led by Tony Parker, who is averaging 17.2 ppg, while Tim Duncan is a close 2nd at 16.5 ppg. Manu Ginobili (14.3 ppg), Kawhi Leonard (13.3 ppg) and Boris Diaw round out the double digit scorers for the team. Defensively this was a solid team this year, ranking 6th in points allowed (97.6 ppg) and 8th in defensive FG% defense (44.4%), and in the playoffs they have been solid as well, allowing just 98.6 ppg on 43.2% shooting.
Pick: The last 12 years, game 1 of the NBA Finals have gone under 10 times and that is where I will head with this one. The Heat have played excellent defense in the playoffs this year, allowing just 92.1 ppg, while the Spurs have allowed just 98.6 ppg in the post-season and they have allowed just 96.7 ppg at home this year. Overall this may be a faster paced series, but game 1 should be a feeling out process as both teams know it could be a long series, so health and staying fresh should be key. For that reason I can't see the Spurs pushing tempo all that much and risk injury to Parker's ankle, while the Heat should also play it safe in game 1 to protect some of their aging stars. The Under is 25-10 in the last 35 meetings between these teams and that trend should continue here as this game will struggle to even hit 190.
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