Our King Creole service focuses on OVER / UNDER Plays. But you can't compare Colleges to the Pros. It's a different animal. But like our Pro Plays, it still comes down to the time a handicappers spends on his research in the database. Oddsmakers have been a little slow to recognize the high-scoring patterns that exploded over the last five seasons. For that reason, we look to find value based on the OU line... previous series patterns... and current form.
In 2009, the average points scored in a College game was 52.3. The numbers have crept slowly upward. By the end of last season, college scoring was up to 57.1 ppg. So in that five-year period, college games have gone UP by +4.8 ppg.
The actual Over / Under LINES have also gone up. The betting market has been very quick to recognize the higher scoring... and the oddsmakers have adjusted their lines accordingly. In 2009, the average OU line in college football was 52.4. Last season, the average line had risen to 56.8. So the average OU line has also gone up by +4.4 ppg.
Pace of Play / FASTEST teams
The more plays an offense runs, the greater the potential for more points. Last season, Hawaii, under coach Norm Chow, was the fastest team in the country, running 3.46 players per minute. Indiana was second at 3.45. Hoosiers coach Kevin Wilson is 25-10 O/U in his three seasons. BYU (3.39), Marshall (3.36) and Texas Tech (3.33) round out the top five in terms of fastest pace of play.
Here's the full list of the teams that averaged 3 or more offensive plays per minute last year:
HAWAII (3.46)
INDIANA (3.45)
BYU (3.39)
MARSHALL (3.36)
TEXAS TECH (3.33)
BAYLOR (3.32)
WYOMING (3.30)
FRESNO STATE (3.24)
CLEMSON (3.23)
CALIFORNIA (3.21)
OKLAHOMA STATE (3.20)
OREGON (3.18)
HOUSTON (3.17)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (3.16)
TULSA (3.13)
SMU (3.13)
BOISE STATE (3.09)
ARIZONA (3.08)
LOUISIANA TECH (3.07)
TEXAS A&M (3.02)
WASHINGTON (3.00)
The Red Raiders of TEXAS TECH averaged the most plays per game last year at 90.3.
Pace of Play / SLOWEST teams
Some offenses tend to take their time when running plays. It's not a surprise that these teams usually produce more UNDERS than OVERS. Florida played at the slowest pace last season, running an average of just 2.16 plays per minute. Minnesota was the next slowest, running 2.26 players per minute. Louisville (2.27), Kansas State (2.28) and New Mexico (2.34) rounded out the bottom five offenses in plays per minute. The Lobos were the only team out of the five to produce more OVERS than UNDERS. Here's the list of teams that averaged 2.40 offensive plays per minute or less.
FLORIDA (2.16)
MINNESOTA (2.26)
LOUISVILLE (2.27)
KANSAS STATE (2.28)
NEW MEXICO (2.34)
ALABAMA (2.35)
GEORGIA TECH (2.35)
FLORIDA INTL (2.36)
ARKANSAS (2.36)
CENTRAL FLORIDA (2.36)
WISCONSIN (2.37)
UTEP (2.38)
STANFORD (2.39)
TEXAS STATE (2.39)
Last season, our King Creole service started the college football season like gangbusters. In the first month, our TOTALS PLAYS went 10-2 ATS. In October, we focused primarily on the OVER of the WEEK... and those plays went 5-2 ATS. We gave a little back in the last two months. But once the conference championship games commenced, we finished strong. It started with a 5* CFB Game of the Year WINNER on OVER in the Marshall / East Carolina game. Then in the SEC Championship, we had a 4* Best Bet on OVER in the Auburn / Missouri game (winner). We closed things out with a 5* Bowl Game of the year WINNER on OVER the TOTAL in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Texas A&m vs Duke). Overall, a very profitable season concluding with a great taste in our mouths on New Years Eve in that final Bowl Game (score was 52 to 48!).
If you have any questions about College OU plays, feel free to tweet me at @KingPregame...
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