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As the NBA gears up for its inaugural in-season tournament, bettors and basketball aficionados have been eagerly anticipating the odds for this exciting new format. Finally, the much-awaited odds have been posted for the NBA In-Season Tournament by BetOnline.ag, FanDuel Sportsbook, and other US-based and offshore sportsbooks.

The Favorites to Win the NBA In-Season Tournament

Let's start by breaking down the odds for the outright winners of the tournament. According to the latest odds from BetOnline, the Boston Celtics lead the pack at +400, closely followed by the Denver Nuggets at +450. Following closely are the Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, and Milwaukee Bucks, all tied with odds of +1000, or 10/1.

NBA In-Season Tournament Odds (via BetOnline.ag as of July 18th, 2023)

Boston Celtics +400
Denver Nuggets +450
Golden State Warriors: 10/1
Miami Heat 10/1
Milwaukee Bucks 10/1
Los Angeles Lakers 11/1
Phoenix Suns 11/1
Memphis Grizzlies 12/1
Philadelphia 76ers 14/1
Dallas Mavericks 16/1
Los Angeles Clippers 16/1
Sacramento Kings 16/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 20/1
New York Knicks 22/1
Oklahoma City Thunder 22/1
Atlanta Hawks 40/1
New Orleans Pelicans 40/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 50/1
Toronto Raptors 66/1
San Antonio Spurs 75/1
Orlando Magic 80/1
Chicago Bulls 100/1
Detroit Pistons 100/1
Houston Rockets 100/1
Indiana Pacers 100/1
Brooklyn Nets 125/1
Portland Trail Blazers 150/1
Utah Jazz 150/1
Charlotte Hornets 200/1
Washington Wizards 200/1

Most striking about the list of favorites for the In-Season tournament is that the Celtics, who face an easier path out of their group (BOS is -145 to win Group C), have stronger odds to win the in-season tournament than the Denver Nuggets, despite the fact that Denver is a co-favorite with Boston in list of favorites for the outright 2024 NBA Title, according to the consensus numbers from Pregame.com as of July 18th. In this dichotomy, we see one ramification of the NBA opting to maintain the East/West conference structure for the In-Season tournament. The benefit of this structure is that it facilitates an easier logistical travel schedule for these teams by keeping them, for the most part, on the same side of the country. The downside, arguably, which we see in these odds, is that it makes it an unfair fight - whereas it is more difficult to win this tournament if your team happens to be situated in the West.

Favorites for In-Season Tournament MVP

The tournament isn't just about the teams, though - it's also a stage for individual brilliance. The in-season tournament MVP odds tell their own story. Damian Lillard, with his future unclear as rumors of trades circulate, tops the list at +425. He's followed by Nikola Jokic at +500 and LeBron James and Steph Curry tied at +900.

Damian Lillard (+425): Leading the pack, despite uncertainty around his future team, is Damian Lillard. Given his performance and impact in the past in critical games, it not surprising to see Lillard near the top of the list of MVP favorites. However, given the ubiquity of his name in current NBA offseason NBA conversations, bookmakers here might by short paying Lillard backers in this market - given that his popularity in the present moment making his backers less price sensitive.

Nikola Jokic (+500): Hot on Lillard's heels is the Nuggets' star player, whose consistent performances could indeed make him a strong MVP candidate. Over the last three years, Jokic has notched two regular season MVPs and a Finals MVP to his resume, and could earn another honor as the inaugural MVP on his way to winning the very first NBA Cup.

LeBron James (+900): Officially not retiring, the Lakers' leader shares the third spot with Steph Curry. His potential to step up in crucial moments may be why he's considered a strong MVP contender. By the time this tournament kicks off in the beginning of November, James should be fully recovered from a foot injury that reportedly hampered his playoff during the 2023 NBA playoffs.

Steph Curry (+900): Curry’s ability to single-handedly influence games could be a driving factor behind his ranking in this list. In their most recent playoff run, which saw them bounced in the second round by the Lakers, the Warriors had a +3.6 Net Rating with Curry on the floor. Compare that to an eye-popping -16.1 Net Rating in the 254 possessions the Warriors played with Curry on the bench in the 2023 Playoffs.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1100): Rounding out the top five is the Bucks' star player, who, like Jokic, has already proven his MVP capabilities in the regular season and in the Finals in recent seasons.

Group Predictions

We are set to delve into the recently released odds by FanDuel, assessing who will win each group of the In-Season Tournament slated to commence this coming November.

Eastern Conference Groups

East Group A

Philadelphia 76ers +135
Cleveland Cavaliers +175
Atlanta Hawks +500
Indiana Pacers +650
Detroit Pistons +1600

Reflecting on where each team ended the last regular season, it is noteworthy that the 76ers are currently considered favorites in this group. The odds seemingly indicate that the market believes there's a strong likelihood that James Harden will stay in Philly - or that they'll secure players of similar value should he be traded. Whether Harden remains or leaves, the Cavs and Hawks could have the advantage of early-season cohesion. as the 76ers will be undergoing adjustments with their new head coach, Nick Nurse.

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East Group B

Milwaukee Bucks +110
Miami Heat +210
New York Knicks +380
Washington Wizards +1000
Charlotte Hornets +1900

Miami's surprising victory over Milwaukee in the playoffs still resonates. However, the market still views the Bucks as the significantly superior team.. Whether or not that changes when and if Lillard joins the Heat remains to be seen. Another vital point to consider in handicapping: Giannis Antetokounmpo's historical struggle to score frequently and efficiently against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat. In 17 career games against Bam (from 2018 to present), Giannis has only averaged 20.9 PPG on 50.4% FG shooting. This pales in comparison to his overall average of 28.8 PPG on 55.5% FG shooting against all teams over the same time span.

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East Group C

Boston Celtics -145
Toronto Raptors +390
Brooklyn Nets +500
Chicago Bulls +1000
Orlando Magic +1000

Leading East Group C are the Celtics, with their combination of young talent and seasoned veterans. With only the Nets as another playoff team from last season, Boston arguably has the easiest route to advance in the East among all major contenders. Their competition - Brooklyn, Toronto, Chicago, and Orlando - are all teams with major questions hanging over them entering the season. It's worth noting that even though the Bulls were predicted to win 14 more games than Orlando last season (41.5 win total vs. 27.5 win total), they are seen as equal competitors entering this season. This is due to the Bulls' veteran talent diminishing and the Magic's young players showing marked improvement.

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Western Conference Groups

West Group A

Phoenix Suns +125
L.A. Lakers +175
Memphis Grizzlies +500
Utah Jazz +850
Portland Trail Blazers +1600

Intriguingly, the revamped Suns are significant favorites in the group, even though they hold the same odds as the Lakers to win the entire In-Season Tournament. This disparity suggests that the market has more confidence in the Suns' talent to perform well in the early tournament rounds, while it places more trust in the Lakers' ability to step up their game later when the bracket becomes single elimination. Whereas we have no idea how this new-look Suns squad will handle adversity - we have seen the LeBron-led Lakers already win a championship with Anthony Davis as the team's defensive anchor.

It's important to note that the Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for this part of the season due to his 25-game suspension.

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West Group B

Denver Nuggets +150
LA Clippers +230
Dallas Mavericks +330
New Orleans Pelicans +500
Houston Rockets +2300

The Denver Nuggets, as the reigning champions, face a demanding journey in Group B with the likes of the Clippers, Mavericks, and Pelicans as competitors. The outcomes in this group will largely be determined by the health status of the teams' star players. The Pelicans Zion Williamson, as well as the Clippers Paul George and Kawhi Leonard all missed significant time in the second half of last season.

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West Group C

Golden State Warriors +170
Sacramento Kings +185
Minnesota Timberwolves +430
Oklahoma City Thunder +500
San Antonio Spurs +1600

Despite being the 6th seed last season, the Warriors are slight favorites over the third-seed they beat in last year's playoffs, the Sacramento Kings. By maintaining their core team, the Kings arguably will have more cohesion in this part of the season than the Warriors - who will be integrating a new player, Chris Paul. He is reportedly aiming to secure a spot in the Dubs' starting lineup.

Comparing In-Season Tournament Odds with NBA Title Odds

Now, let's contrast the in-season tournament odds with the odds for the actual NBA title.

Denver Nuggets: NBA Title Odds (+500), In-Season Tournament Odds (+450)
Boston Celtics: NBA Title Odds (+500), In-Season Tournament Odds (+400)
Phoenix Suns: NBA Title Odds (+650), In-Season Tournament Odds (+1100)
Milwaukee Bucks: NBA Title Odds (+700), In-Season Tournament Odds (+1000)
Miami Heat: NBA Title Odds (10 to 1), In-Season Tournament Odds (+1000)

Interestingly, while the Nuggets and the Celtics are the top favorites for the NBA title, their odds are even better for the in-season tournament, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the tournament format and perhaps some teams’ strategy to prioritize the regular season.

Final Thoughts

The NBA In-Season Tournament is an intriguing new addition to the basketball calendar, adding an exciting layer to the narrative of the sport. These initial odds paint a captivating picture of the tournament, hinting at the intense competition we can expect.

However, as with all betting markets, these odds are likely to shift as the tournament progresses, injuries occur, and trades happen. As always, our advice is to stay informed, keep a close eye on team news, and make your betting decisions accordingly.

Stay tuned to Pregame.com for all the latest odds, news, and insights into the NBA In-Season Tournament and the rest of the sports betting landscape!

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Related: 

NBA's In-Season Tournament Final Four To Be in Las Vegas - What It Means for Sports Bettors

The New NBA CBA and Its Impact on Sports Betting - The Introduction of In-Season Tournaments

Damian Lillard's Trade Request Shakes Up NBA Free Agency - Miami Heat's Title Odds Surge 

Celtics-Porzingis Deal Boosts Boston's Championship Chances; Unpacking the Suns-Wizards Trade.

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