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The Bombshell: Dame Asks Out of Portland
Just over 36 hours into the NBA's free agency period, the most significant shift in the Vegas betting market isn't due to the $2.8B worth of contracts NBA players have signed so far. Instead, the market has moved most on news of a non-contractual, non-binding request made by Damian Lillard. Finally, after 11 years of loyal service, the Olympian has requested a trade out of the City of Roses, as reported by multiple sources on Saturday morning. In his request, Lillard specified to Portland that his preference would be joining Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in South Beach. As a result, the title odds of the Miami Heat were upgraded instantly.
Before we dive deeper, let's revisit the context. Lillard has been the heart and soul of the Blazers, leading them to eight consecutive postseason appearances and making seven All-Star and All-NBA teams. He has encouraged the fan base repeatedly with his commitment to not only the franchise but also the surrounding area. However, despite his personal success, the franchise's inability to build a championship-caliber team around him and their recent pivot towards youth has led Lillard to seek greener pastures.
In the absence of a formal trade request, sportsbooks had already been speculating about Lillard's future. His rumored overtures towards Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets, and the Trail Blazers drafting point guard Scoot Henderson, had stirred the pot of speculation. Those whispers were amplified on June 26th when Chris Haynes reported Damian Lillard and his agent had a sit-down meeting with Blazers brass to discuss the team’s future outlook. At that point the Miami Heat had been installed as clear favorites to land Lillard – with a Jimmy Butler Instagram shout-out influencing the odds.
Damian Lillard's Next Team IF Not POR Trail Blazers
Miami Heat -500
Brooklyn Nets +275
Philadelphia 76ers +700
New York Knicks +800
Los Angeles Clippers +1200
San Antonio Spurs +1400
Atlanta Hawks +2500
Chicago Bulls +3000
Los Angeles Lakers +3300
Toronto Raptors +4000
(Odds via BetOnline.ag as of July 1st, 2023)
Currently, the Dame to Miami buzz has only gotten louder and louder, and the Heat are currently listed at -500 to be his next destination, according to the latest odds from BetOnline, with the Brooklyn Nets trailing at +275. Other potential suitors, the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks are trailing at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively.
Effect on NBA Title Odds
Damian Lillard’s announcement has had a seismic impact on the much bigger NBA Futures market. In the aftermath of the news, bookies have rapidly recalibrated their odds. While the Houston Rockets saw a boost following Fred VanVleet's signing and the Toronto Raptors' odds took a hit after losing him, their adjustments were marginal compared to the frenzy ignited by Lillard's decision.
There's an old saying: "When the smoke is rising, there's a fire burning." And Lillard has certainly set the NBA ablaze. His appeal stretches far and wide. As ESPN's Zach Lowe rightly points out, "There are very few guys that can tilt the balance of power in the league by themselves, (Dame) is still one of them."
And the current epicenter of that fire? The Miami Heat, Lillard's preferred destination. The Heat's standing in the NBA Title odds has surged. Pre-draft odds placed Miami at 16/1. The Heat’s odds shifted to 14/1 following the Trail Blazers' drafting of point guard Scoot Henderson; the market started to wonder out loud if a trade was imminent. Now, with Lillard's trade request confirmed, Miami has rocketed up to 10/1. The odds capture the essence of Lillard's potential impact. An addition like Dame could instantly transform the Heat into a championship-contending juggernaut.
The most extreme adjustment in Pregame.com’s consensus of five sportsbooks before and after the trade request came from sharp book the Westgate Superbook in Nevada. The Superbook cut their payout on the Heat to win the Title by nearly half, moving from 16/1 prior to the draft to currently 8/1 - tied with the Milwaukee Bucks as the third favorite to win it all.
As ESPN's Marc J. Spears said on ESPN, "You don't do this unless you go to a position to win a championship...He's going somewhere to win a title."
Meanwhile, the Blazers have seen a minor downshift in their title odds, moving from 120/1 to 125/1. Although this movement is relatively inconsequential given Portland's long odds, it demonstrates how Lillard's departure would leave a significant gap in their roster.
The Brooklyn Nets – second favorite to land Lillard according to BetOnline – have also seen a noticeable uptick on their projected chances to win the Title. The Nets went from 120/1 to 100/1 to win the title according to our five-book consensus. DraftKings Sportsbook notably moved their payout from 120/1 prior to Free Agency to 60/1 now.
Top 10 NBA Favorites in the 2023-2024 NBA Title Odds:
1 DEN Nuggets +475
2 BOS Celtics +500
3 PHO Suns +650
4 MIL Bucks +900
5 MIA Heat 10/1
6 GS Warriors 13/1
7 LA Lakers 14-to-1
8 PHI 76ers 16-to-1
9 LA Clippers 18-to-1
t-10 DAL Mavericks 25-to-1
t-10 MEM Grizzlies 25-to-1
(Consensus odds via Pregame.com as of July 1st, 2023)
The speculation, the odds, the buzz, all underscore one key point: Damian Lillard has set this NBA free agency period ablaze. A player of his caliber and reputation can single-handedly shift the power dynamics in the league. As the drama unfolds, the betting market watches with bated breath, ready to react to each twist and turn. As we wait for the next development, one thing is certain: Dame Time has taken on a whole new meaning this summer.
Does Dame Fit in Miami? Hint: 'Yes'"
While the last few weeks have been filled with conjecture and suspense, there is a growing consensus among NBA analysts and insiders that the answer to the question, "Does Dame fit in Miami?" is a resounding 'Yes.' Let's break down why this prospective pairing has the potential to be a match made in basketball heaven.
The notion of Damian Lillard joining forces with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in Miami is undeniably enticing. In addition to his undeniable talent, Lillard's skill set complements Miami's existing core perfectly. Lillard is an offensive dynamo who can light up the scoreboard, an area where the Heat have struggled recently, finishing last in the league in scoring this season at 109.5 points per game.
Last year, Dame had both his most productive and most efficient season of his 11-year NBA career from a scoring perspective. Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game, on a career-high 64.5% True Shooting. Lillard’s offensive firepower, paired with Butler's tenacity and Adebayo's prowess in both offense and defense, could create an intricate network of abilities that would be a nightmare for any opponent.
Aside from his on-court performances, Lillard’s potential fit extends to the Heat’s culture as well. His competitiveness, work ethic, and desire to win align seamlessly with the “Heat Culture,” which has been a cornerstone of the franchise's identity. The admiration appears to be mutual. The respect between Lillard and the Heat’s key players, notably Adebayo (referred to as "my dawg" by Lillard), indicates a pre-existing chemistry that could translate into seamless on-court coordination.
Dame could also extend the Heat's title window. As they faced the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, it became evident that the Heat were perhaps just one piece away from winning their first title since 2013. Damian Lillard could very well be that missing piece.
From a broader perspective, a potential move to Miami ticks many boxes for Lillard as well - the storied winning tradition of the franchise, the stability of the coaching staff and front office, and the potential partnerships with Butler and Adebayo. The no state income tax in Florida and the amenities of living in South Beach certainly don’t hurt either. The Miami Heat have been patient in their pursuit of Lillard, believing that Lillard could extend Miami's title window and could even become an ambassador for the renowned 'Heat Culture.' This cultural fit, combined with Lillard's obvious interest in joining the Heat, suggests that Lillard could not only fit but also thrive in Miami.
If a Lillard trade to Miami can be pulled off, the Heat may emerge as favorites in the Eastern Conference, thereby tilting the balance of power in the league. Miami is currently only fractions behind Boston & Milwaukee – based solely on the fact the market thinks a Dame/Jimmy/Bam big three is likely come this fall, with the big three having the season to gel before they go for it all in the spring.
Can Miami Build A Trade Package That Works?
The news of Damian Lillard wanting out of Portland and wishing to pair up with Miami's Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler has sparked heated discussions among NBA analysts, fans and bettors. However, speculation is split on whether such a trade is feasible or desirable from a Portland perspective.
On one side, ESPN's Marc J. Spears seemed confident that Miami can make a compelling offer and the Blazers will accommodate Dame’s wishes. Spears said on ESPN on Saturday: “I can't see him going anywhere else... I expect them to figure out a way to get him in a Heat uniform."
On the other hand, Bill Simmons of the Ringer is more skeptical about Miami's ability to provide a trade package that benefits both parties, suggesting on twitter that such a trade may leave Portland at a significant disadvantage unless they're doing Lillard a favor. According to Simmons, a trade proposal involving Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, and future picks would lack in quality, quantity, and potential, compared to past high-profile trades.
Simmons, who saw his Celtics lose to the Heat in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals live this past season, says a Damian Lillard to Miami trade would not make sense for Portland.
The Heat's current projected trade package on paper might seem compelling, but it has been criticized as one of the "worst trades in NBA history" by writers such as Kevin O’Conner of The Ringer. (Why would The Ringer operated by the ‘Boston Sports Guy’ not be so keen on a top-10 NBA player joining the defending Eastern Conference Champions? Hm. We may never know).
Like his boss Simmons, O’Connor argues that the Heat's package lacks the substantial haul of draft picks or key young players usually involved in deals of this magnitude. Moreover, Tyler Herro, one of the significant pieces of the offer, is seen as a potential defensive liability and redundant for a team like Portland, which already has similar players.
The Spurs' name has come up increasingly often after Ramona Shelburne reported that Lillard has 'a deep respect' for the San Antonio Spurs organization.
Ramona Shelburne of ESPN suggests that while Miami is Lillard's preference, he respects the San Antonio Spurs. The prospect of joining young phenom Victor Wembanyama and playing under the legendary head coach Gregg Popovich in San Antonio could also be an enticing possibility for Lillard.
Other teams such as the Sixers, Celtics, Clippers, Nets, and Jazz are also reported to have an interest in Lillard, and arguably have better or more fitting assets than Miami or San Antonio. For instance, the Sixers can put forward Tyrese Maxey, two future firsts, and expiring salaries, while the Celtics can offer three firsts with Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, and others. The Nets, boasting a plethora of high-value picks and additional young players, could arguably also exceed Miami's best offer.
However, would these teams be keen on investing so much capital in Dame if his preference was to play with Bam and Jimmy in Miami? Unclear. There's a school of thought that Miami's chances of landing Lillard are quite high, particularly because Lillard himself wants to play with Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. This sentiment is echoed in betting markets, where Miami is currently favored to land Lillard. For what it’s worth, the Vegas betting market has made Miami a prohibitive favorite to procure his services.
Remember This About ‘Next Team Odds’ Betting Markets:
Although the odds currently skew heavily in Miami's favor at -500, it's important to remember that the betting market is not always a reliable predictor of actual outcomes. Just a week ago, BetOnline had set the odds at -400 for the Houston Rockets to acquire James Harden should he leave Philly. Yet, the financial implications of Harden opting into his $36.5 million deal for 2023-2024 make it very likely he will be traded elsewhere. In fact, as of Saturday morning before the Lillard news broke, the LA Clippers emerged as -125 favorites to secure Harden.
In another noteworthy example: Sportsbooks across the country once universally projected a 70% or better chance Tom Brady would return to New England before the 2020 season. The Buccaneers a month before Brady’s decision were not even listed as a betting option. These markets wind up wrong all of the time.
Around the NBA: Free Agency Rapid Fire
While Damian Lillard’s unexpected request to be traded has sent ripples throughout the NBA and the sports betting landscape, as fans, teams, and bettors scramble to assess the potential ramifications of this bombshell, let's take a moment to examine how this news, as well as all the other NBA Free Agency news, has affected the odds for next year’s NBA Title.
Portland Trail Blazers (Previous odds: 120/1; Current odds: 125/1): The Blazers, Lillard's team of the last decade, have taken a hit following his trade request. The departure of their franchise cornerstone will undoubtedly put a damper on their championship hopes. The Blazers, perhaps unfortunately, did sign veteran Jerami Grant to a five-year, $160 million deal prior to learning of Lillard’s imminent departure. It remains to be seen whether Grant works with the Blazers’ amended timeline or whether he will be moved at some point in the season with the hope of returning draft capital for Portland.
Miami Heat (Previous odds: 14/1; Current odds: 10/1): The Heat, one of the potential landing spots for Lillard, have seen their odds shorten, likely due to the potential addition of the All-NBA point guard. The buzz around this potential move, combined with their trade of Victor Oladipo to the Thunder, signals the Heat’s intention to rebuild around a new star.
Brooklyn Nets (Previous odds: 120/1; Current odds: 100/1): Another potential suitor for Lillard, the Nets, also saw their odds improve. The thought of Lillard teaming up with Mikal Bridges has many Brooklyn fans dreaming of an instant return to relevancy. The DraftKings Sportsbook, which first launched operations in New Jersey in 2019, notably moved their payout from 120/1 prior to Free Agency to 60/1 currently for the Brooklyn-based squad.
Other notable shifts during the opening two days of NBA Free Agency in the market include the Lakers (12/1 to 14/1) – as the market may have expected them to make bigger splashes than nabbing Gabe Vincent and Taurean Prince in the Free Agent market. Lakers fans will be glad to learn that they successfully re-signed Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura, which as we have discussed on this page before was the Lakers biggest priority this offseason.
The Bucks (7.5/1 to 8/1) retained Khris Middleton Saturday, but the world waits to hear if Brook Lopez will join Middleton in re-upping in Milwaukee. If Lopez doesn’t re-sign with Milwaukee, ESPN reporter Tim Bontempts believes that could potentially put Giannis Antetokounmpo ‘on the table’ as far as a league-shattering trade for the two-time MVP.
Bontemps said recently on an ESPN podcast: “If Brook Lopez isn’t back, you start to question are the Bucks a championship level team. And Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to compete for championships…If Brook Lopez isn’t there…that’s going to immediately start questions of the future of the Milwaukee Bucks.”
Three teams that made news resigning their guards to massive contracts: the Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies & the Dallas Mavericks. None of them saw movement in their Vegas title odds.
The Pacers signed All-Star Tyrese Haliburton to a max extension. The five-year, designated maximum contract extension could be worth up to $260 million. Haliburton had career highs in both points (20.7 PPG) and assists (10.4 APG) last season. After the deal, they remained at 250/1 to win next year’s title.
The Grizzlies extended Desmond Bane on a max deal. The five-season rookie scale maximum extension is projected to be worth $207MM. Bane averaged 21.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game in the 2022-23 season??. Memphis – who will be without Ja Morant to start the season for 25 games – remained at 25/1 to win it all next year, tied with the Dallas Mavericks as the 10th favorite.
Speaking of those Mavs. Kyrie Irving re-signed with the Mavericks. The $126 million contract is set for three years. The Mavericks remain 25/1, tied for 6th best odds in the West.
The Golden State Warriors have agreed to a four-year, $100 million contract with four-time NBA champion Draymond Green. Despite this significant signing, the Warriors' title odds remained steady at 13/1. Green's return adds stability to the team's defensive efforts, yet the betting market appears to have already factored this into the Warriors' championship prospects.
Remember, in the high-stakes world of NBA betting, it’s essential to stay informed and react quickly. Damian Lillard’s potential move is a prime example of a significant event that can shake up the odds, create value, and offer new betting opportunities.
As we continue to monitor this situation and other developments in NBA Free Agency, keep it locked on Pregame.com for the most comprehensive analysis and informed betting advice in the game.
(Unless specifically mentioned, odds and changes in the odds are according to a 5-sportsbook consensus from Pregame.com.)
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Related: NBA Free Agency Frenzy: Betting Markets Buzz as James Harden Trade Looms, Speculation Erupts After Chris Haynes Reports on Dame's Meeting With Blazers About Future, Celtics-Porzingis Deal Boosts Boston's Championship Chances, According to Vegas; Unpacking the Suns-Wizards Trade
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