Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs

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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    06/08/2017 10:19 AM

THAT'S WHY THEY CALL IT "GAMBLING" + FREE PICK

We had some terrible luck.  If you bought my package for the Monday game, you know I picked Denver, and most of the analysis was based on Jay Cutler vs. Matt Cassel at QB and the comparative strengths of the offensive line.

We were completely correct about the weakness of New England's offensive line, as indicated by the huge six sacks of Matt Cassel.  The second part of our reasoning for the pick was Jay Cutler.  Cutler was also a large part of our proposition selections here.  Unfortunately, Cutler injured his index finger on the first play of the game.  Denver kept Cutler in the game for 2-3 series during which they mainly ran the ball.  The few times Cutler threw the ball, he tossed dying swans.  In one case, his throw didn't even reach the receiver, who was only 10 yards down the field.  Finally, one of Cutler's wobbly wonders was intercepted and Cutler was taken out the game in favor of Ramsey.   After 3 passing attempts, Ramsey was taken back out of the game and Cutler was put back in, but nothing improved.

Having an injured QB in football is no different from keeping an injured pitcher in the game in baseball.  It changes the entire game.  Cutler, who had thrown only 5 interceptions in 6 games this season, threw two interceptions in one game on Monday.  He managed to toss only one TD, compared to an average of two per game this season.  New England's offense was on the field 7 minutes longer than Denver's offense.  No defense can support an entire game.  Denver's defense got tired, and New England, which has scored more than 19 points only once this season, scored 3 TD's in the second half alone.  

It's impossible to know what would have happened if Cutler hadn't been injured, but suffice it to say it is very unusual for a team to lose a game in which they sack the opposing QB six times. A game-changing injury on the first play of the game is a risk whenever one makes a bet on a sporting event.  That's why there is no such thing as a sure thing, and at the Crowne Club we recommend that you never play any selection for more than 2 1/2 times normal.  It is also why they call this "gambling.,"  and NOT "buying Treasury Bills."  

After racking up a 3-1 on the props the prior Sunday night, we could do not better than 2-6 on Monday.  We lost all the Jay Cutler props.  To make up for the loss, I'm going to give you my selection for tonight's first game of the World Series.  

Hamels for Philly has the better ERA and allows 3.3 runs per game, compared to 4 runs per game on average for Kazmir of Tampa Bay.  The most important measure of  pitcher performance, however, are the average hits and walks allowed per 9 innings.  Hamels has allowed a tiny 9.54 hits & walks/9 this season, compared to a much more mundane 11.6/game for Kazmir.   On the road, Hamels has been just as good as at home, allowing a mere 9.8 hits & walks per 9.  At home, Hamels has not been any better than he is on the road, allowing 12.2 hits and walks per 9 -- even more than on the road.  

Both teams hit equally well against lefties based on home and road numbers.  The line is Pick, and the better pirching of the Phils wins it.  Take Philadelphia at Pick'em -105.

I forgot to change the price on the Breeders' Cup packages.  My mistake is your gain.  I'll leave the discounted price until midnight Eastern time tonight.  This is your LAST CHANCE TO GET THE DISCOUNT.  CLICK HERE.

     

A professional sports bettor and card player for 24 years, Rob is known as being as an expert handicapper and bettor, as well as one of the few sources for picks of the professional sports betting groups... Read more

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