NFL HALF TIME RANT In the NFL, there are exactly 13 minutes from the time the teams start to walk off the field to the time they kick the ball for the second half. I suspect the timing of the break at the half is regulated by the NFL since every game, except the Super Bowl, is exactly the same 13 minutes almost to the second. A mere 13-minute break makes no practical sense whatever. Given that it takes the teams... Read more

The Hilton Consensus “Everything is relative.” -- Albert Einstein This past week Minnesota was selected by 145 contestants. Only 16 contestants picked against Minnesota by selecting Arizona. Despite the 129-contestant differential between those picking Minnesota and those picking Arizona, Minnesota did not make it into the Top 5 Consensus posted around the net. Instead, Tennessee was installed in 5th Place in the Consensus... Read more

The Preseason Admonition warns against using Preseason NFL performance to handicap the regular season. As with almost every admonition, however, there are exceptions. One of those exceptions occurs in cases in which a team tries to win in the Preseason, but can't beat an opponent that is simply going through the motions. One of the most important factors in handicapping NFL exhibition games is the intention of each... Read more

Information about team and coach intentions, rotations, and readiness is the only thing the handicapper has to work with in the Preseason. This year, a new dimension has been added in the early games that has made obtaining information even more important than normal. Due to the lockout, the teams have barely had enough time to get their starters in shape to play. That has created a situation in which there has been less... Read more

The best team lost the Super Bowl. The manner in which Super Bowl XLV played itself out provided a perfect demonstration of the problems facing football handicappers. Those problems prevent even the best handicappers from winning at better than a 60% long-term rate. We all know the platitudes regarding NFL games and the Super Bowl in particular: 1.. The Super Bowl is won by the superior defense. 2. The team with... Read more

The Pack are back. The team that played in, and won, the very first Super Bowl, and repeated in Super Bowl II, brings their socialist, share-the-wealth act back to the Championship game. Comedian Bill Mahr, in a recent monologue on his HBO weekly TV show, claimed that the NFL's penchant for pooling the income of all teams and redistributing that wealth among them equally made the NFL a socialist enterprise. Mahr was... Read more

As with all meaningless games, no edge can be gained by attempting to handicap the winning side in the Pro Bowl using fundamental statistics. The use of won-lost trends between the AFC and NFC to predict results is also precluded due to the NFL's maintenance of equality between the Conferences. The Pro Bowl rules provide little room for an advantage based on coaching. Finally, the length of time that any player will be... Read more

LEON LETT LIVES – A Rob Crowne Rant (c) Rob Crowne & Assoc., January 7, 2011 It’s 1993. Super Bowl XXV!!. Leon Lett recovers a fumble and lumbers toward the end zone. Then, about 5 yards before the goal line, Lett, no speed demon in the first place, slows down to a trot and holds the ball precariously out to the side, in a move aimed at mocking the other team. Don Beebe (no relation to Dan Bebe) catches up to Lett... Read more

Observations of a Professional Handicapper Sunday, December 10, 2010 J ets/Pittsburgh total of 36 If you bet the Jets at Pittsburgh to score less than 36 points, here's a lesson for you that will allow you to profit from the folly and misconceptions of the general public. The only reason the total was the lowest on the board all week is that snow was predicted in Pittsburgh. In fact, it did snow. The public... Read more

There’s no crying in baseball, and there are no wussies in football. At least, there didn’t used to be any wussies in football. Football players are supposed to be super tough guys, and their fans are supposed to be super- tough-guy wannabes. Football players used to wear leather helmets, and be bare-armed in sub-zero weather. Concussions didn’t exist. If a player got knocked out, the coach revived him with smelling... Read more