Keeping track of the Hilton NFL Contest can be an excellent lesson in short term vs. long term results. At the end of three weeks of NFL action, the top selector in the Hilton Contest stood at an excellent, and very lucky, 13-2 (87%). You don't expect him to be 69-11 at the end of the Contest, do you? The next four selectors were tied for 2nd place with a record of 12-3 (80%).
There are 60 contestants who stand at 67% winners after three weeks. That's approximately 1 in every 6 contestants. When the contest ends, each handicapper will have made 80 selections. It is unlikely anyone will be at 67% or more after 80 selections. It is so unusual for anyone to hit 67% in 80 selections that the Hilton offers a $10,000 bonus each year if any contestants finish at or above that percentage. Most years, a finish at 63-65% is sufficient to walk away with the top prize of approximately $300,000.
The reversion to realistic percentages has begun, as those who jumped on board the top selector as if they were jumping into a hot craps table unfortunately discovered this week. Not a single one of the top 5 selectors has had a winning week so far.
Parlayexperts.com, the top selector, is 0-4 this week, with Minnesota pending tonight.
Jasterpix.net (makes you wonder who took Jaxterpix.com) is 2-2 with Minnie pending.
Sean Lenahan is also 2-2 with Minnesota pending.
Ace/Jeff Smith (no relation to Ace/John Doe) is also 2-2, with (you guessed it!) pending.
The only contestant fully determined this week is RGS 2 with a record of 1-4.
That's a combined 7-14 (33%) so far, with only Minnesota to save a winning week for just two out of the 5 handicappers. If Minnesota wins the record for all 5 will still be a losing 11-14 (44%). If Minnesota continues this week's trend and loses, then the combined record will be a hideous 7-18 (28%), with all five of the top contestants being below 50% this week. and lowering the best possible record of all the top five contestants to 15-5 (75%). That's a mere 8 percentage points away from losing the bonus.
The favorite at home on Monday NIght combined with the Bret Favre hype has sent the line on Minnesota running from -3 up to -5 right now. According to Sportsbookspy an incredible 62% of all bettors are on Minnesota. Minnesota is so hot that the four sports writers analyzing the game in the Green Bay Press-Gazette, a publication normally biased toward Green Bay, picked the Vikings to cover the spread.
It is often observed that everyone being on one side of the game is the kiss of death for that side. Will Minnesota win and save face for at least two of the top selectors in the Hilton, or will this week's losing curse continue? . Is the public correct? Rob Crowne knows, and if you Click Here you'll know too. The side and total in tonight's game is up with an analysis, and one of the plays is a Crowne Jewel.
No matter which team wins tonight, the Hilton Contest is a lesson in why you should never jump on or off a a handicapper based on short term results, and why you shouldn't believe those guys who tell you they hit 69%+ every year..