Not sure what forum or where this started, but I keep hearing people with the utmost confidence claim all they do is bet +140 dogs and clean up. While in Vegas for RJ's bachelor party I was at the Venetian playing 2-5 and this arrogant cat next to me claimed that is all he does and what do I know as he gambles for a living! Well, after I shot my resume out and left him with the stupid look I explained to him how he determined this was profitable? See, I am a big fan in keeping score. Whether it is poker or sports betting, usually the only people who really win are the ones who track everything. A poker player that does not what he has won or lost is usually down money but will still stick to his guns how good he is despite being broke all the time. I than went on to explain to this guy that there could be value in this if he filtered it down, but blanket betting across the board is for suckers unless you are getting bad lines or pre-moves. Alas, he stuck to his guns and we refrained from talking to each other for the rest of the evening.
So, for the guy at the Venetian and the various people all over the web who claim this, here are some back dated #s on +140 or more dogs to go against this theory:
363-535 (-1.43, 40.4%) 4005 (on home dog) -9150 (against)
1252-2146 (-1.01, 36.8%) -7290 (on away dog) -14660 (against)
Not saying someone can't beat MLB in other ways, but the only way I have seen to consistently win is to play underdogs and small favorites. Of course playing a team -160 if you power rate the line to -180 has value, but outside of that, favorites will burn thru your money almost 4x as fast as betting underdogs.
As always, good luck and looking forward to any thoughts and opinions!