Its always important to know your opponent. In this case we
are talking about the line maker. Following is a brief recap of what you are up
against when handicapping 2011 CFB. These numbers will give you a realistic outlook
when handicapping the college football wars this season.
The numbers below are all for the regular season in 2010
number of CFB games played.
points the outcome of these games differed from the point spread.
(the average number of points from the point spread).
of games that fell with in 7 points of the betting line(38.6%).
of games that fell 7 ½ to 14 points from the betting lines (27.5%).
of games that fell more than 14 points from the betting line (17%).
Those of you who have followed my writing and research will
not be surprised by the following two statistics. If you favor handicapping CFB
using a statistical methodology you will quickly understand you much pay
particular attention to these two sets of numbers.
129-35 ATS (78.7%) The
point spread record of teams who gained 200 yards both running and passing vs.
217-75 ATS (74.3%) The
record of teams who outrushed their foe by a greater than 2-1 margin.
This is just a small sample of the type of unique statistics
we track every week in my offices. All the hard work paid off again in 2010
with a point spread record of 61% on
over 250 analyzed games in print. Pay attention! You will learn something.