Its always important to know your opponent. In this case we
are talking about the line maker. Following is a brief recap of what you are up
against when handicapping 2011 CFB. These numbers will give you a realistic outlook
when handicapping the college football wars this season.
The numbers below are all for the regular season in 2010
College football:
-
770 Total
number of CFB games played.
-
9,576 Total
points the outcome of these games differed from the point spread.
-
12.4 AFP
(the average number of points from the point spread).
-
297 Number
of games that fell with in 7 points of the betting line(38.6%).
-
212 Number
of games that fell 7 ½ to 14 points from the betting lines (27.5%).
-
261 Number
of games that fell more than 14 points from the betting line (17%).
Those of you who have followed my writing and research will
not be surprised by the following two statistics. If you favor handicapping CFB
using a statistical methodology you will quickly understand you much pay
particular attention to these two sets of numbers.
-
129-35 ATS (78.7%) The
point spread record of teams who gained 200 yards both running and passing vs.
their foe.
-
217-75 ATS (74.3%) The
record of teams who outrushed their foe by a greater than 2-1 margin.
This is just a small sample of the type of unique statistics
we track every week in my offices. All the hard work paid off again in 2010
with a point spread record of 61% on
over 250 analyzed games in print. Pay attention! You will learn something.