onto JOHANNESBURG SA for the JORBURG OPEN. well for starters, im already knocking my head against the wall to start this week. i thought GEORGE COETZEE was going to play this week, and when i saw the opening #'s to win for the JOBURG on 5d, i didn't see his name near the top and after glancing around and not seeing his name, and this was late late in the night, so i assumed he was going to sit this week out and i went to bed. it wasn't till today i saw his # had opened @ 145/1 and currently its @ 7.2/1. so ya, missed some major value, and wont take looking at the opening #'s for granted again.
the JOBURG OPEN is held @ the ROYAL JOHANNESBURG AND KENSINGTON GC, which has 2 courses that will split this 210man field!!! the east course is the host course and will be played on for the final 2rds. general layout of both courses is fairly open and you can be a little loose with the driver if it means youre leaving yourself with short approaches, though there is some water on some holes and weird trees that if you are slightly unlucky on your drives it could cost you a key shot. east course is a couple hundred yards longer than the west, and it shows its teeth on the par3s and its longer than normal par4s. the par5s are where you can make up ground as there are 3 of them on the front 9 and if you don't make up ground there, then you will have your work cut out for you the rest of the round, til the 18th which is easily reachable in 2. if you don't shoot low on the west, its not too big of a deal, as you can still shoot low on the east, but it wont be easy. they're expecting some rain this week and there won't be any crazy wind expected. should be fairly easy for these guys to shoot low this week, though there are only 6 in the top100 OWGR playing this week. greens are a bit on the slow slide and will be slower because of the rain, rough isn't too thick, so again scoring will easier than normal.
CHARL SCHWARTZEL playing in his first tournament in 8weeks, his last 5 appearances, he's 1/1/2/3/5, and to top it off coming into this week, he's won this event twice, HOWEVER he missed the cut last year at this event. not a good price to buy him @ 3.3/1 currently. you can find a bunch of other guys trending well coming in that have a far better # and seems that players coming off a lengthy amount of time off away from tournament play its tough to get right back into the swing of things and just win. charl last year made this JOBURG stop his first tournament of the year, and again he missed the cut. so we'll see, but @ 3.3/1 its just not worth to buy him at this point.
so after blowing my chances with GEORGE COETZEE and CHARL's # being not appetizing enough to buy, who else can i go with? last years defending champ BRENDAN GRACE isn't a bad pick. believe there are a few high priced names that i have my eye that i will make a play at some point. this tournament is a little unfamiliar to me, as i didnt cap this last year, so will have to play this 1 cautiously to start.
have been also capping the PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM, and will have my card ready sometime late night wednesday.
JOBURG OPEN
10.5/1 B. GRACE(.5u) -- to win L
80/1 F. AGUILAR(.2u) -- to win L
175/1 G. MAYBIN(.1u) -- to win L
225/1 P. UIHLEIN(.1u) -- to win L
5.45/1 R. SANTOS(.5u) -- top10 W
6/1 F. AGUILAR(.5u) -- top10 W
7.4/1 G. MAYBIN(.5u) -- top10 L
14/1 P. UIHLEIN(.5u) -- top10 L
grace(+163) / schwartzel(.5u) -- tour mu L
coetzee(+150) / schwartzel(.5u) -- tour mu L
uihlein(+105) / sjoholm(.5u) -- tour mu W
uihlein(EV) / sjoholm(.5u) -- 1st rd mu W
lockerbie(-140) / floren(.5u) -- tour mu W
aguilar(+225) / webster / kruger(.5u) -- 1st rd 3-ball W
fleetwood(-104) / walters / abery(.5u) -- 2rd rd 3-ball W
aguilar -.5(+105) / horne(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W
coetzee(+120) / schwartzel(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L
walters(+145) / kamte / pieters(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball L
sterne(+125) / van zyl / fisher jr.(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball W
gonzalez(+175) / fisher / kingston(.5u) -- 4th rd 3-ball L
coetzee(+115) / schwartzel(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM
6.35/1 P. MICKELSON(1u) -- to win L
7.75/1 D. JOHNSON(1u) -- to win L
12/1 B. SNEDEKER(1u) -- to win $$WINNER$$
125/1 J. KOKRAK(.2u) -- to win L
130/1 J. TEATER(.2u) -- to win/thru1/ L
150/1 C. WI(.2u) -- to win/thru1/ L
38/1 R. H. LEE(.5u) -- to win/thru3/ L
3.6/1 J. WALKER(.5u) -- top10 W
3.6/1 T. CLARK(.5u) -- top10 L
3.65/1 J. DAY(.5u) -- top10 W
9/1 K. CHAPPELL(.5u) -- top10 L
11.5/1 J. KOKRAK(.5u) -- top10 L
snedeker(-140) / westwood(2u) -- tour mu W
marino(+140) / palmer(.5u) -- tour mu L
estes -2.5(-133) / gainey(.5u) -- tour mu W
estes -3.5(-128) / gainey(.5u) -- tour mu W
bello(+115) / kirk(.5u) -- tour mu reduced L
watney(EV) / furyk(.5u) -- tour mu reduced L
horschel -1.5(-120) / ogilvy(.5u) -- tour mu W
baddeley(+112) / clark(.5u) -- tour mu reduced W
wi(+115) / singh(.5u) -- tour mu W
teater(+117) / every(.5u) -- tour mu reduced L
walker(+110) / de jonge(.5u) -- tour mu reduced W
ridings(EV) / lee(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu L
walker(-105) / de jonge(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu P
harrington(+110) / furyk(1u) -- 3rd rd mu L
lee(-125) / reed(1u) -- 4th rd mu L
stadler -.5(+105) / jacobson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W
stuard(EV) / tringale(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L
westwood(-120) / mahan(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L