05.14.22: Race 8, Man o’War S. (Grade I), $700,000, 11f TURF, @ 4:46PM
1: Easter (FR) [9:2-1-2]
Appears over-matched, but look closer.
▸ Prat is winning at a 50% clip this meet so far and 67% ITM
▸ H.G. Motion is under most people’s radar, but won’t send the horse if he doesn’t believe he’ll get a solid effort, and is a better lawn conditioner than dirt
▸ Easter has raced over the various conditions of lawn races which, to me, doesn’t make him an automatic toss
▸ The extra panels are the largest deterrent
▸ Second is the level of competition, when facing similar finished 10th from 12th
★ Could add value to the bottom portion of one’s exotics with a good trip
□ Long shot
2: Gufo [15:8-2-4]
Serious player for this race
▸ Rosario is one of the best in the business which adds to the horses chance of winning
▸ Clement is winning at a 27% clip this meet overall and a 30% on the lawn
▸ If the turf comes up good or firm, it should not effect this one having won on both conditions
▸ One race at this distance and placed ... distance won’t be the reason if this one loses
▸ Never been out of the money at Belmont (3:1-1-1), yes all turf races
★ A “must use” in multi-pick races
□ Top choice
3: Yibir (GB) [14:6-4-3]
Serious player for this race
▸ William Buck coming over for this race ... that says an awful lot
▸ Appleby is no slouch ... dismiss the 0%
▸ Can handle all but good soft lawn surfaces
▸ The question I have is, what is the intent for this race? Is this a prep for an upcoming race during the Royal Ascot or are the connections gearing towards Breeder’s Cup?
▸ First race in North America since last year’s Breeder’s Cup Turf victory
★ Dismiss at your own risk
□ Second choice but would use in multi-pick race and include in exotics
4: Abaan [8:4-3-0]
A logical choice to fill in your exotics
▸ Saez has two wins of the last four races but they were three and four back against lesser competition
▸ Pletcher wants to do well in NY, 12% win rate this meet overall and 33% on the lawn, gets quality horses and does a very good job but I don’t expect him to win today
▸ Needs a better trip (“racing luck”) since form indicates the inability to finish strong
▸ The lone horse with a win, from two races, at the distance in the field
▸ The 4f workout, 20/111, shows the horse is full of run
★ Just incase, racing happens, use in multi-pick race
□ A good horse to complete one’s exotic tickets
5: Highland Chief (IRE) [11:2-2-2]
Appears over-matched, but look closer.
▸ McCarthy gets the return call. This is his second race on him and his stats for it are better than what’s listed in the PP’s.
▸ H.G. Motion is under most people’s radar, but won’t send the horse if he doesn’t believe he’ll get a solid effort, and is a better lawn conditioner than dirt (I know, it’s a repeat from above but it’s true.)
▸ It’s been a while since this one has won a race
▸ The extra panels are also a concern
▸ No listed workouts from Belmont gives their chances a down-grade
★ Could add value to the bottom portion of one’s exotics with a good trip
□ Bombs away
6: So High (GB) [11:2-2-1]
Appears grossly over-matched
▸ Castro, a 5% win rate this meet, gets the return call
▸ Chatterpaul must like goose eggs as he’s got a line of them (4:0-0-0)
▸ In the last two years, this horse hasn’t won a race (5:0-1-1) - don’t get your hopes up as the time he placed it was a 82,000 Allowance race.
▸ Track surface conditions don’t matter, it looks like they are in the race just to try and pick up a check
▸ At least this one had a workout over the turf course within the last week (7f, 1/1, breezing, 1:27.07)
★ Could add major value to the bottom portion of one’s exotics with a very good/perfect trip
□ Will only be included in a couple exotic tickets
Analysis based on the race remaining on turf and only minor changes.
Good luck with your selections.