The weather is gonna be shitty all week so I went with some grinders out there on my head to heads. I have them rated 1-5 units which I played each except on a few futures, those are about 1/6 to 1/4 unit.
D. Clarke +170 vs C. Syme (Darren is old, but he is active having a nice season on the senior tour. He also plays well in a shitty weather and it is a course he knows how to play when the weather turns for the worst.) 1 unit
Prom Meesawat -115 vs T. Kanaya (Prom has one showing in this tournament and is a vet pro having a solid season on the Asian tour. Kanaya is making his debut as the no. 2 Pacific Asian amateur and never gets to play tournaments on courses like this. Prom hits fairways and that will be key to managing to avoid big numbers this week.) 1 unit
Sergio Garcia -115 vs S. Lowry (Shane has not had good showings in this tournament and Sergio without a win in the British Open has had many good tournaments. Shane is inaccurate off the tee and that will be trouble this week in the wind. Sergio hits a nice low piercing shot and solid short game which allows him to play well in these conditions.) 2 units
Andy Sullivan -115 vs A. Ancer (Andy with far more experience than Ancer in this tournament and he has good showings in the past. Andy is in very good form as well.) 1 unit
Thomas Pieters -1.5 -125 vs P. Harrington (Harrington hardly plays any tournaments any more and when he does he has been dreadful. In his 8 pga tour tournaments played this year, he has made just two cuts. He may be two time champ, but he is far from the player he was 10 years ago. Pieters has had good success in this tournament making all 3 of his cuts and he coming off of a nice showing at the Scottish Open.) 3 units
P. Kizzare -125 vs E. Els (Els withdrew from the Scottish Open with a bad back. I will fade a guy with a bad back in weather cold wet windy conditions. Besides that Els has missed his last 6 cuts on the PGA tour. He missed just 1 cut in his first 9 tournaments. There is obviously something going on with Els causing his recent poor form. Kizzare isn't my favorite matchup agianst Els, but he has a couple Opens under his belt and is decent around the greens. He also is solid putting 10-15 feet which could save him big pars to edge out Els.) 1 unit
Z. Johnson +115 vs R. Knox (Zach is a true grinder, has a great short game and plays a low ball flight. Is very good in this tournament with a win under his belt and hasn't missed a cut in the British Open in over 10 years. That is impressive as hell. He loves this kind of golf where it isn't a birdie fest and he can just hang around and make tough pars and move up the leaderboard.) 3 units
Spieth +155 vs J. Thomas (Thomas does not play well in bad weather. His game is suited be styling out there with bomb drives and a bunch of birdies. His game is suited to ugly and crafty golf needed to play well in the British Open. He is only 1 for 3 in cuts made at the British Open while his one cut made only mounted to a 53rd finish. Spieth has never missed a cut in this tournament and he can scramble his little poor ball striking ass off. His putter is still solid and this value is too much to pass up.) 1 unit
Jim Furyk -120 vs Aaron Wise (This line makes no sense to me. I don't know how this isn't a -175 line at least. Furyk has 21 British Opens under his belt compared to Wise making his debut. Furyk is in solid form in which 33rd place is his worst finish in the last 4 tournaments. Furyk is one of the most accurate drivers off the tee and one of the best scramblers as well which is why he has 6 top tens over his career in one of the most demanding tournaments of the year. With the weather suspected to be rough, it will make Wise's debut that much more of a test to hang around a crafty vet like Furyk. This is my favorite play of the tournament.) 5 units
I keep the prop plays very cheap. 1/6 unit on 1st round leader and 1/4 unit on top 20s. I think the first round leader will come from one of the early tee times those players avoid the rain most of the day and are dealing with less wind than those teeing off in the afternoon. Most of my 1st round leaders are early tee offs.
1st Round Leader - Andy Sullivan 8000
1st Round Leader - Charley Hoffman 10000
1st Round Leader - Richard Sterne 12500
1st Round Leader - Matthew Fitzpatrick 6600
1st Round Leader - Ryan Palmer 10000
1st Round Leader - Thomas Pieters 9000
1st Round Leader - Adrian Otaegui 12500
1st Round Leader - Zach Johnson 9000
1st Round Leader - Tommy Fleetwood 3500
1st Round Leader - Jon Rahm 2500
1st Round Leader - Erik Van Rooyen 6000
1st Round Leader - Nate Lashley 12500
Top 20 Players - Darren Clarke 2000
Top 20 Players - Sergio Garcia 250
Top 20 Players - Zach Johnson 600
Top 20 Players - Andrew Johnston 1000
Good luck everyone, enjoy not sleeping this week if you are gonna watch this thing.