I am looking at a new system uses the Poisson Process calculation using the Xg provided by 538 soccer predictions to create game predictions and then play the games where I see value. All action is at 1 unit. For double bet that you see in soccer, e.g. totals at 2.5 & 3, I only looked at the most stressing case. For example with a total at 2.5 & 3, I estimated the over as 4 or more goals and the under as 2 or fewer goals. For match day 25 this is what the system projects:
Huddersfield Town +1.5 -135 (System shows this at -152) L (-1 unit)
Chelsea/Huddersfield Under 2.5/3 -110 (System -149) L (-1.1 unit)
Watford ML +180 (System -108) L (-1 unit)
Southampton ML +175 (System +101) L (-1 unit)
Southampton/Burnley Over 2.5 +105 (System -165) L (-1 unit)
Everton/Wolverhampton Under 2.5 -135 (System -153) L (-1.35 unit)
Crystal Palace ML Even (System -152) W (+1 unit)
Crystal Palace PK/-.5 +105 (System -152) W (+1.05 unit)
Leicester City PK/+.5 -105 (System -165) L (-1 unit)
West Ham +1/+1.5 +105 (System -126) W (+1.05 unit)
I'll update and continue new threads each match day if there is interest and the system is effective.
Match day 24 went 5-1-1
Match Day 25 (3-7 -4.35 units)