I wrote about Khabib McGregor last week here, and nothing has changed much...all with the weigh in was fine..
Gonna go last to first this week starting with co main
Ferguson...pass. not laying 370 on a guy 1st off major knee surgery and pettis would have no shot against a healthy Ferguson...plus Ferguson starts slow and can give away round 1 here...
Reyes...this is one of my keys...reyes has yet to fight somebody this experienced but OSP is made to get slept by Reyes..free square to win by finish..not buying the fact OSP experience could derail the hype train...But AM willing to concede that reyes could be in a dicey spot if he needs to go to plan B...hence the wager on plan A at the reduced wood....
Volkov...dog or pass...Volkov could shoot all 3 rounds and take the big boy down and gas him or he will get slept shooting..Lewis has lethal power...wild card for me is Lewis has a bad back and he got a TUE for drugs for this fight...we may see Lewis at the best he has looked at in a while...I doubt Lewis wins a decision cause Volkov will dominate with volume at range so Lewis by KO..action bet
Herrig..love this fight...herrig is only -130 but I see decline in waterson...she was always limited by being a bit small butherrig is in great form...waterson stole her last decision..she won;t get close this time and may get choked out...monster value
formiga...classic grapper striker matchup..I THINK Formiga can get him down to win 2 of 3...Pettis striking edge is immense but can he stay up long enough to win 2...gonna be nip and tuck but at dog odds, there is value on formiga...
luque..luque sleeps people but turner sleeps cans....I can;t take luque at -600 given turner has a length and athleticism advantage...play is the under....
Ladd this is both interesting and hard to be certain about..Ladd is the next big thing at 135 but she is 19 or 20YO...Evinger is a horse..been doing it a long time and her game is to get a takedown and pound out her opponents...evinger would be an easy play if I knew evinger was not aging out...but I think she maybe fading...so I have to pass eventhough its easy to argue Evinger is great value as a dog...but I am fascinated to see who gets on top of who here..fight figures to to ground at some point...will be rooting for ladd
Patrick...this fight is a bore...Patrick probably wins 3 rounds of lay and pray...no faith in him subbing him out and no faith in holzman to do damage.....pass,,, patrick can be used in a parlay maybe....if I ever bet an over..this would be it too
Lansburg...two cyborg victims meeting..lansburg is great in clinch and blah everywhere else...I think yana dominates if she can get it to the ground but that will be the challenge...could have taken kunitskaya at the open but not -200 its at now...
Lentz...question is how washed up is over the hill grey maynard..I am all in on VERY..Lentz is built for decisions but I think he pounds him out after a takedown...and you will get good value on lentz by finish
LaFlare...this fight has had major steam...LaFlare opened well over -200 and now is -130..people hate laflare cause he is dull but he is a fabulous technical fighter who fights to win rounds...people are delusional that Martin can win 2 rounds and KO chance for Martin NOWAY warrants the current price...LaFlare is a play if it stays -130