Don't need to wait till Friday to write this fight up and I know more casuals will be interested (although I do wanna see Khabib make the weight with vigor..I presume he will, he was fine last fight)
Current average prices
Khabib -150
Conor +125
Will fight go distance -450 NO
Will if go 3.5 -250 NO
Conor by finish +165
Khabib by finish +110
Note your book may segregate Submissions and TKO's...for the record, Conor is 21-3 as a pro, has won ONCE by Sub and ALL 3 losses by Sub, only twice has he been to round 3..one of those being the 5 round decision he eeked out in Diaz II
Khabib is 26-0 as a pro, 16 by finish 8-8 Sub/TKO
Now my opinion without addressing what I will think happen
A Khabib win could look like A) a 5 round beat down that really didn't begin in full force till late round 2 or round 3, B) Khabib crowding and clinging to Conor and doing damage until Conor gases..he could either beat him to a pulp at that point or grab his neck for the big sub...
B Conor win most certainly (as indicated by the narrow price spreads) a TKO and if he wins, I would say 50% its in round 1, 35% in round 2, 14% round 3....I don;t see Conor having the gas tank to be in this fight come the 4th with a chance to win it unless he is dominating Khabib and somehow Khabib's chin has kept him in it....Conor likely will have Khabib clutching him by the middle of each round (or sooner) so he probably needs to land a major shot diminishing Khabib in the first minute of a round to slow Khabib;s takedown/clinch strategy
facts/fallacies...Conor's epic 1 punch KO power...fallacy...Aldo ran into the one punch that ended that fight..beyond that Conor's game has been more about accumulating damage to end fights but he has been excellent at pouring it on at the first sign or damage.... Conor's ground game is non existent...PROBABLY fact...we have only seen him on ground once with all his faculties in recent times..that was when Mendes took him down and all McGregor did is lay in guard, throw some useful strikes and ride out round...I don't think either his skill set or gas tank implies he can hang in there in scrambles...Conor's striking is miles ahead of Khabib...FACT BUT....Khabib's janky striking and good head movement are functional enough to think he can stand for brief stretches competently and use his jab to close the distance to get to Conor's hips to begin the grind/takedown game...Khabib doesn't have the strongest "strength of schedule" FACT...but this is not football and all that really matters is this one matchup...Conor has not looked the same physically...FACT...I won;t say he looks out of shape but he is not NEARLY as BIG as he was for his prior fights...this however is not a problem...a smaller McGregor will have to only cut 10 instead of 17 to make weight and a less bricked up McGregor will likely have an extra 5 minutes of cardio...so I give him 12 minutes at peak form instead of 7 if Khabib hasn;t depleted him with his offense
Conclusion..I am a Khabib guy...I think its a bad match for Conor...I don't think he will be able to generate much offense once Khabib gets to his hips and it may only take 6-7 minutes of Khabib laying on Conor to diminish Conor enough that its all but over by end of 2nd...(or is over)...
I think of UFC fights in terms of probabilities and absolutely Conor has a path to victory and its pretty wide in round 1 and then narrows quickly after that IMHO...
I would feel a bit cheated betting Khabib because when this fight SHOULD have happened, the line was pickem...now you need to lay wood with Khabib but you do get ring rust on your side...IMHO the value at -150 is minimal...if McGregor nation bangs it closer to pickem, then Khabib is a bargain...
I SEE NO WAY Khabib will "play with his food" as in the Iaquinta fight and let this go on a second longer than it need to.....I think its a coinfip however once what Khabib does once McGregor is empty..does he grab his neck or beat him till the ref stops it...DO NOT get in that wager...
My favorite wager is Khabib by finish +110 currently
My 2nd favorite wager is the under 3.5 -250...under 2.5 is -135...I think for you to want to be in that wager, you have to give Conor a higher probability of winning than I do...(although my precise pick would be Khabib in 2nd if I had a gun to my head)
enjoy
One additional point..this fight is a classic live betting situation...Khabib's chance of winning goes up the longer the fight goes...IF round 1 is an ACTIVE round where both have a couple moments AND you could get down at -150 on Khabib after round 1, you are stealing because Conor's expiration date gas wise is that much closer...