Here is the big one boys! UFC presents the card of the year Saturday and it is a great opportunity to shake off the results from UFC on FOX 25 that didn't go our way. I am going to have more plays than usual on this one, but I really love a lot of these fights. Hopefully we can turn it into a big night.
Top Play
Parlay: Tyron Woodley/Andre Fili (2 units to win 1.7)
Obviously I would like a better return on a parlay, but I LOVE both of these fights. I respect the hell out of Demian Maia, but welterweight champion Tyron Woodley could not ask for a better style matchup. Maia is a straight grappler with literally no threats on the feet. Woodley has a stunning 95 percent takedown defense rate and is a monster on the feet. As long as Woodley uses his excellent takedown defense, he should put Maia's lights out pretty early. His striking is just too fast and explosive.
Fili is one of the more underrated featherweights and was originally scheduled to face Korean Superboy Doo Ho Choi. That would have been fireworks. Instead, Fili now gets UFC newcomer Calvin Kattar. Kattar has an impressive 16-2 record on the regional scene, but he hasn't had a stoppage victory since 2011. As he has gone up in competition, he has had a harder time with opponents. This is a MAJOR step up and Fili should finish him anyway he wants.
Other Plays
Robbie Lawler over Donald Cerrone -160 (1.6 unit to win 1) (W)
This is a matchup of two of the most entertaining fighters in UFC history. It should be a great scrap on the feet. Lawler is naturally more talented as is, and the stronger of the two, but he gets an added edge as Cerrone is recovering from a really nasty blood infection. Dana White didn't think Cerrone would be ready this early, and he probably isn't. Cerrone is the kind of guy who would walk into the cage at 50% just to fight, and he might be doing that here. That's trouble against Lawler. I do worry Lawler is on the way down after two massive wars with McDonald and Condit followed by his KO loss to Woodley. He doesn't have much left, but after a much needed year off, his ability to take some punishment should have replenished a bit. I'll take the former champ here.
Volkan Oezdemir over Jimi Manuwa +155 (1 unit to win 1.5) (W)
Manuwa is a thrilling striker who looks like a Greek god. He has great charisma and is a fan favorite. All of that adds up to him being just a bit too much of a favorite here. Oezdemir has only lost once, and it was to a very solid grappler. Oezdemir is not good on the ground so it makes sense. This isn't going to the ground. These are two of the best strikers in the light heavyweight division and Oezdemir can hang with anyone on the feet. I think Oezdemir is the more patient and accurate of the two (not to mention powerful in his own right.) The key will be to weather the explosive athleticism of Manuwa early and then wear him down. Manuwa is a fast starter that can fade because of all that muscle he packs on. If Oezdemir is patient and smart, he has a path to victory.
Renato Moicano over Brian Ortega -155 (1.5 units to win 1) (L)
Ortega is a fan favorite because of his all-out finishing ability, which was on display in his last three fights including two TKOs and a submission. The problem was he was losing all three of those until he rallied to find the finish in the last round each time. I don't see Moicano opening that hole for him. The undefeated Moicano has looked very good in UFC, most recently defeating the uber violent Jeremy Stephens even when he decided to stand with him. Moicano uses his length and jab incredibly well and he is super strong on the ground. Ortega looks for slick submissions and highlight strikes, which is fun, but not as steady or productive as Moicano's approach. I expect the taller Moicano to have his way on the feet and if the fight hits the ground, avoid any crazy submissions Ortega may throw. He's simply better everywhere.
Renan Barao over Aljamain Sterling +100 (1 unit to win 1) (L)
Barao was once considered a top-10 pound-for-pound fighter as bantamweight champion. TJ Dillashaw changed all that and Barao has never looked the same. Sterling is a huge personality and seen as a future title contender in the bantamweight division. All that said, this is Barao's fight to lose. Sterling has no striking game to speak of and needs to use his wrestling to win this. The problem is Barao has the best takedown defense in the entire history of the UFC. He cannot be taken down or kept there.
Barao's biggest problem has been how gun shy he has approached fights. He no longer stands in the pocket and destroys people with his leg kicks and power punches. But he still can. Against Sterling, there is no reason to be afraid of setting up in the pocket. A little extra edge for Barao is the fight is at a catchweight of 140, so the weight cut won't be as draining. As long as he shows up confident in his striking and ready to throw, he should win.
As always enjoy the fights and I hope you all cash that $$$.