I love caping auto racing. My current posted pregame plays are 2 out of 3 race winners. My top 5/match up bets have also done very well. We missed a winner last night (Xfinity series) with Christopher Bell at Iowa after he got caught up in a late race lap car accident.
Sonoma is a great race and should be fun to watch with the stages unfolding for the first time on a road course. Historically, 71% of the winners have started inside the top 10. That leaves a lot of good drivers looking to overcome a staggering stat. I'm going to place my picks within this statistic.
To Win. Kyle Larson +600 (LOSER). It sounds like a broken record, but this kid continues to impress.He starts on the pole, had the fastest 10 lap average, and his team mate has speed also. They have clearly figured something out in the Chip Gannasi garage. Look for Larson to lead a lot of laps and separate himself from the field.
To Finish in the top 5 or use in matchup bets:
I really like Kyle Busch (WINNER 5th), he was almost in a pick to win, and still could be. Expect him to be around at the end. I caught his interview during practice and he was talking about how other teams have a lot more speed. It leads me to believe that they are a bit "slower" in the Gibbs garage.
Kevin Harvick (WINNER 1st). This is a great track for Harvick. He is looking for a great run and experience matters at a place like Sonoma. I would expect him to be in the top 3 at the end of this race. I will use him in matchup bets. He is a closer.
Brad Keslowski (WINNER 3rd) (great valute). He starts way back. His speed didn't show up in qualifying, however, he had good speed and averages in practice. He will quickly move up through the field. He may not be a top 5 finisher, but would use him in fantasy and matchups. Brad runs well on road courses and is also a fuel saving expert. These races are likely to come down to saving fuel in recent years.
Drivers I'm betting against or avoiding:
AJ Allmendinger (WINNER, not a good day for AJ). Everyone loves AJ at the road courses, however, the team just hasn't had the horsepower this year. He might be able to lay a fast lap, but I promise these guys will make a mistake, bad strategy, or have mechanical failure. Don't get suckered into the "road course ringer" talk.
Denny Hamlin (LOSER, finished 4th). If you would have asked me early this week, I would have told you Hamlin is a top 3 finisher at Sonoma, however, the team didn't roll off with any speed and qualifying wasn't good either. I hate to bet against him at this track (second last year), however, I don't think Hamlin has enough to get into the top 10. Chris Buescher, Danica Patrick, and Daniel Suarez all qualified better then Hamlin.....not a good sign going into Sunday.