After a clean 4-0 sweep last week (19-9 on year), we head full steam ahead into the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, FL. The Copperhead Course, mostly known for the Snake Pit being one of the toughest finishes on tour, is not your typical Florida course. With the bevy of elevation changes, tight tree-lined fairways, and several sharp turns it plays as one of the toughest venues on the circuit annually. With 5 par 3’s, all of which are lengthy, ball striking and par 3 scoring will be a key stat. We will also look for players who putt well on the Bermudagrass as gaining strokes on the dance floor with prove crucial to success. Lastly, we will look for accuracy off the tee. Distance certainly helps, but if you are wayward with the Driver you can get caught in a mess quickly amidst the trees. Here are our picks for this week:
Kirk over Finau -115: When charting my key stat metrics this week, I have Chris Kirk inside my top 5. He checks all the boxes. He finished T42 last year in his first appearance at Copperhead. Finau has missed the cut both times he has played here. The course simply does not setup for his game. I expect him to be in the trees quite a bit and Kirk is just much better around the greens and putting. Kirk is ranked 16th in strokes gained putting and Finau is outside the top 150 players on tour.
DaLeat over Horschel EV : Yes, I am well aware that Billy Ho should have an advantage playing in Florida vs. the Canadian, but the Valspar presents a different set of circumstances. DaLeat has two top 10’s in his last 2 starts here. Horschel played very well at the Honda, but hasn’t teed up at this event in 4 years. This is another play based primarily on course history and putting. I have DaLeat a few spots ahead in my power rankings, and his superior ball striking and strokes gained putting should put him in contention this week.
Moore over Thomas +140 – Huge fan of Justin and have been for a few years. When he has it going, he is as good as anyone. I am sitting on a saucy JT Masters Champ ticket for 80-1 from back in November that should be fun. That all said, his play last week was a bit skewed in my opinion. I honestly hate using the word "luck" in golf, but holing out a chuck in run from 150 and dripping in a hole in one in the same week is….let's say fortunate. It could have resulted in a 3-4 stroke swing last week, which is part of the reason I just feel this line is inflated too much. Moore was the better overall player last season, and has a 3rd place and 5th place finish the last two years at this event. If he keeps it straight off the tee, he hits em' close to the pins. He should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize and all the betting value this week is on his side.
Bryan over Donald -105 : Battle of Young vs. Old. Bryan is an early favorite for newcomer of the year, and Luke Donald is approaching 40 years old and headed in the opposite direction. Well aware that Donald has great course history and even a win here in 2012. As of late, the stats he has excelled in during his career including Driving Accuracy and GIR have declined. Bryan is in familiar territory. He plays great in the Southeast and has been on record saying he loves playing the Bermuda greens on the East Coast. Had Wesley at 125-1 to win the Honda a few weeks ago which provided a solid sweat. His current form has been great and with a week off to rest, he is primed for a top 15 this week.
Reed over Haas +115 : There is no way around it, Reed has been in a bit of a slump since been deemed "Captain America" and the unquestionable hero of the Ryder Cup. I'm betting he turns it around this week. He has great history at this course (7th and 2nd last two starts) and he thrives typically in events with weaker fields. Bill Haas has been playing well thus far and had a 2nd place finish last year here. I still have Pat Reed ranked higher overall in my rankings. Haas scrambling has been superb so far this year but Copperhead presents several tricky lies, high bunkers, and trees that could drastically effect that stat marker. Reed looks like a good dog to me in this spot.
Outright Winner Pick - Stenson +950 - Nothing flashy here. Not concerned about the WD last week, it's not like it was an injury. The Mexico City Stomach Bug can get the best of anyone. Has come back strong off WD's in his past and he is the best player in the field this week. This has been the year of the favorite in terms of outright winners.
Longshots worth a play: Moore 28-1 and Hadwin 90-1. Both guys hit greens and make putts. That will give anyone a chance. Moore has great course history and Hadwin checks all the boxes we are looking for. Sprinkle and sweat.
Best of luck once again!
JINKS