Agreed this is an interesting thread, but I am confused on the underlying theory. Is it:
a) The NFL/NCAA and Vegas conspire together via referees?
b) Vegas books already know the outcome for whatever reason (math, science, voodoo) and don't adjust for volume because they know they'll profit?
c) ____________ ?
Also I think the money angle is important too as mentioned above. If 90% of 60K bettors are on the favorite but they total only $200K in wagers while the remaining 10% total $600K, the book would definitely prefer the favorite to win.
Either way, I'll give it a shot until it tanks. I'd take that 27-30 record any day over my garbage. Nice research