Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the “experts in the desert” truthfully think about the teams:
TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.
NFL Vegas Rankings – Week 5
|
|
Hm Field
|
True Power
|
Bettor Bias
|
Spread Power
|
t1
|
Patriots
|
3
|
100
|
0
|
100
|
t1
|
Texans
|
3
|
100
|
0.5
|
100.5
|
3
|
49ers
|
3.5
|
99.5
|
0.5
|
100
|
t4
|
Giants
|
1.5
|
97.5
|
0
|
97.5
|
t4
|
Packers
|
3.5
|
97.5
|
0
|
97.5
|
t4
|
Ravens
|
3.5
|
97.5
|
0
|
97.5
|
t7
|
Falcons
|
3
|
97
|
0
|
97
|
t7
|
Steelers
|
3.5
|
97
|
0
|
97
|
9
|
Bears
|
3
|
96.5
|
0
|
96.5
|
10
|
Eagles
|
2.5
|
95.5
|
0
|
95.5
|
t11
|
Cowboys
|
3
|
95
|
0
|
95
|
t11
|
Broncos
|
2.5
|
95
|
0
|
95
|
13
|
Chargers
|
3.5
|
94.5
|
0
|
94.5
|
t14
|
Bengals
|
2
|
93
|
0
|
93
|
t14
|
Cardinals
|
3.5
|
93
|
0
|
93
|
t14
|
Seahawks
|
4
|
93
|
0
|
93
|
17
|
Saints
|
3.5
|
92.5
|
0
|
92.5
|
t18
|
Bills
|
3.5
|
92
|
0
|
92
|
t18
|
Panthers
|
2
|
92
|
0
|
92
|
t18
|
Redskins
|
2
|
92
|
0
|
92
|
t21
|
Buccs
|
2
|
91
|
0
|
91
|
t21
|
Jets
|
3
|
91
|
-0.5
|
90.5
|
t21
|
Lions
|
3.5
|
91
|
0
|
91
|
24
|
Vikings
|
3
|
90.5
|
0
|
90.5
|
25
|
Dolphins
|
2
|
90
|
0
|
90
|
26
|
Rams
|
3
|
89.5
|
0
|
89.5
|
27
|
Raiders
|
2.5
|
89
|
0
|
89
|
t28
|
Chiefs
|
3
|
88.5
|
0
|
88.5
|
t28
|
Titans
|
2
|
88.5
|
0
|
88.5
|
t30
|
Browns
|
2
|
87
|
0
|
87
|
t30
|
Colts
|
3
|
87
|
0
|
87
|
32
|
Jags
|
2
|
86.5
|
0
|
86.5
|
Vegas Rankings voters include Steve Fezzik (the only two-time Hilton SuperContest Champion), Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).
RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com, and can be heard on Colin Cowherd every Friday during the football season at 12:45 ET. Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas