Attached are NFL Power Ratings along with my ratings last week, and ratings to start the year. An average team has a rating of 0. Power Ratings are based on the QB that is expected to start. KC is rated as a +3. This assumes Mahomes starts, but is very compromised. If Mahomes was 100%, KC would be +8. If Henne is the starter, KC would be +0.5.
To calculate an expected Spread, subtract the difference between the two teams, then add in Home Field Advantage. I am assuming the average HFA this year will be about 2 points, but it will vary by team. For example, assume Green Bay and Sea have three point edges. By contrast, I only give the Chargers 1 for HFA.
|
|
01/23/23 |
01/18/23 |
Beg Of Yr |
|
|
|
Rating |
Rating |
Rating |
|
1 |
Phi |
6.5 |
5 |
1.5 |
|
2 |
SF |
6.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
|
3 |
Cin |
5 |
3.5 |
2 |
|
4 |
Buf |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
5 |
Dal |
4 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
|
6 |
Kc |
3 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
|
7 |
Lac |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
8 |
Pit |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
|
9 |
Jax |
0.5 |
1 |
-3 |
|
10 |
Gb |
0.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
|
11 |
Det |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-3 |
|
12 |
Tb |
0.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
|
13 |
Norl |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
14 |
NE |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
15 |
NYG |
-0.5 |
0.5 |
-4 |
|
16 |
Min |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
1 |
|
17 |
Cle |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2.5 |
|
18 |
Sea |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-5 |
|
19 |
Nyj |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-6 |
|
20 |
Car |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
21 |
Mia |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
1 |
|
22 |
Bal |
-3 |
-3 |
3 |
|
23 |
Ten |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
0.5 |
|
24 |
Was |
-4 |
-4 |
-1 |
|
25 |
Den |
-4.5 |
-4.5 |
1.5 |
|
26 |
LV |
-5 |
-5 |
1 |
|
27 |
Atl |
-5 |
-5 |
-6 |
|
28 |
Lar |
-5 |
-5 |
3.5 |
|
29 |
Hou |
-6 |
-6 |
-6.5 |
|
30 |
Az |
-7.5 |
-7.5 |
0 |
|
31 |
Ind |
-8 |
-8 |
1.5 |
|
32 |
Chic |
-10 |
-10 |
-6 |
|