All the live line talk is completely valid for sure. While it doesn't always work out it makes sense from a mathematical standpoint and i'll take my chances more often than not with it. TB hit +11.5 at one point. I"m like WTF, this is silly. Tampa will for sure maybe get 1 TD in soft D mode right? As you said, TB -3.5 game time, late 3rd early 4th down 16-3, was almost 19-3 but didn't happen, but even when i got 9.5 i felt good about it. Nobody for Tampa hurt on offense and honestly i think Saints had lost a guy or two so even better. It's not an every day thing to do above either but Brady not 3 weeks ago did the EXACT same thing against the rams. He was +800 late in 4th as well. It's not fixed, it's not rocket science, it's the best QB of all time doing what he's always done...to the tune of 44 4th Q comebacks and 56 game winning drives. That's not luck or scripted material, it's fact and if you aren't aware of it and don't bet it then i'm sorry you aren't cut out for this stuff.