Earlier this year I posted my AFC pick of the Steelers making the super bowl. I thought it was a good pick at the time but I’m analyzing the playoff picture. Anything is possible but I don’t know if the Steelers can do it after all the pictures. If anyone likes future bets the ravens look to have a clear road as a long shot. The ravens are 14-1 for super bowl and 7-1 for the afc title. The ravens will either line up with the winner of the afc south or a third game with an afc north opponent. They will likely avoid the chiefs until the title game. Everyone still loves the chiefs but I don’t see them making the title game. They keep winning but not covering and they are not a good red zone team in the second half of the season. The ravens had injuries early in the season and Lamar wasn’t looking good but I think they are healthy and have figured out how win games now doing what they do best. Don’t forget the ravens were second or third favorites at the beginning of the season.
They remind of the chiefs last year. Chiefs defense didn’t start to click until the end of the year. They were second favorites behind New England last year. Ravens can play anywhere when it comes to home field advantage. And running games and defensive teams succeed in the playoff.
Update: below is a look of odds of super bowl match ups in the last 10 years. You’ll notice a super bowl with two long shots is unlikely. I think there is value on the ravens. The bills and Steelers were long shots to win the super bowl. I assume the packers will represent the NFC. In the last ten years, only three times were there a super bowl the top three odds for the preseason represent one of the teams in the super bowl. I think both saints and ravens could be an option, but like I said I assume the packers will represent the NFC. I am a little worried because everyone loves the ravens this week. But I think if they win this week they will most likely upset the chiefs depending on who wins the other matchups. Let’s remember early in the year vegas had the ravens the favorite or pick em if you take way home field advantage when they played earlier this year.
Super bowl matchup odds
2019 chiefs (6-1) vs 49ers (40-1)
2018 patriots (6-1) vs rams (10-1)
2017 eagles (40-1) vs patriots (+275)
2016 patriots (6-1) vs falcons (80-1)
2015 Broncos (9-1) vs panthers (60-1)
2014 patriots (6.5-1) vs Seahawks (4.5-1)
2013 Seahawks (6-1) vs Broncos (8-1)
2012 ravens (16-1) vs 49ers (12-1)
2011 giants (22-1) vs patriots (5-1)
2010 packers (11-1) vs Steelers (25-1)
Other trends to keep in mind:
In the last ten years, at least one team in super bowl scored 30 points week in week 17. (Gb, no, buf, bal) only three years this didn’t happen.