BEARS +3.5 v VIKINGS
“The New Normal?”
Intro
Watching the news today (mistake) and seeing that we as a nation will have the opportunity to be vaccinated against this “flu’ I am continually hearing the pompous media asking within their myriad of mindless interviews of the even more arrogant academia based medical community; which now christened “media darling” quacks the same constant, “when will we be back to normal?” As usual these never had a date and/or a good stiff and painfully dry martini, give us (to them) dopes a vague and rambling dissertation with numerous “big words” in an attempt to show us how much more superior they are to us lemmings. Yet with their self-imposed superiority they can’t give a simple answer to a simple question. So, it begs the question, what exactly is “Normal?” Who’s “normal?” My Normal? Your Normal? The Quacks Normal? For the “good doctor” it’s hard to answer the question presented concerning normality since for them nothing since the start of this worldwide pandemic has changed.
Soapbox
See, since I personally am a Doctor myself, I know first-hand the lives of these highly **** and socially delinquent loners. They as a group one the “flu” has been extinguished will continue to live in their “no fun” little bubble of a life shutout from the outside world, complete with their beakers of fizzing liquid, quantitative statistical models and academic journals of research all of which tell us nothing of substance all in a vain pursuit to obtain more letters (PhD) at the end of their name to give the false appearance that they as a group are more intelligent than the rest of us. The fact of the matter is that the quacks can’t answer the question of “normality” since this current lame existence we are all “suffering” through is actually their “normal.” This is why collectively they keep telling us to “stop living, go hide under our beds and don’t come out until everyone is vaccinated.” They can’t grasp the concept of personal liberty and freedom and that life is full of hazards. They can’t conceive the concept that the masses (unlike them) actually enjoy life and would like to “live it” and unlike them willing to risk all even with the trials and tribulations that accompany it, and yes even the “stinking flu.” This is because their reality (like most in the medical profession, professors, politicians and school administrators) is drab, depressing and void of fun.
That being said, for us that actually had a very good life before the “flu” (I still do) we have seen this perpetual fear that has been propagated by these quacks and fueled by the Trump hating media. It unfortunately has taken a once vibrant and economic US powerhouse to its collective knees. As we begin to come out of our collective “caves” as a society (As for myself since I live in a ‘free state” I never changed one thing). What society needs to do is first stop asking the clueless doctors when will “normality” return and come to grips that that the “normal” of the past is gone forever. It is those that realize this reality of life and then overcome, preserver and adapt to the new world which will lead us in the new “normal” of the future.
Past Tense
I can hear you the reader once again sounding like my ex-wife screaming “what in the hell does some quacks idea of “normal” is have to do with the Viking-Bear game today?” Well if you can tolerate some of my usual psychobabble you will see how a collection of “living in a cave” group of nerds (doctors) who for the 1st time in their live because of this ridiculous virus are getting any human attention consider this current societal atmosphere where having fun and living “free” is now being punished, not out of the ordinary. These socially inept thespians can’t see how others don’t want to be quarantined, wear a mask or when we try to eat or god forbid go out for a couple (or 10) adult beverages with a member of the opposite sex who enjoys the same lives in the some delusional reality and that we hate humanity.
It is this same tunnel vision way of thinking that refuses to adapt that can been seen in action today as we will view an old, stale and probably doesn’t own a cell phone and thinks the internet is just some passing fad. Yes, it’s none other than my personal “punching bag” Vikings HC Mike Zimmer.
Hibernation
But before I get into this almost weekly “Zimmer bashing” I want to highlight a huge psychological edge that the Vikings opponent today (Chicago Bears) currently possess over their divisional rivals from the north. That edge in one word is “confidence!”
I know this won’t be a very popular take but a key component in this sports investing business to (like the stock market) is to buy low and sell high. Well for those who are jumping in with Chicago we as a group are definitely getting in with a penny stock. Gone is the 5-1 start that brought back visions of the 80’s where the Bears were a league force. This fast start was replaced by a mind numbing 7 game losing streak that put everyone on notice that instead of those nice gift cards that always come in handy during the holidays instead the dreaded pink slip might be in the Christmas stockings of all involved. Then out of nowhere the once downtrodden “Monsters of the Midway” after just one win to stop the bleeding find themselves with a realistic shot that with 3 straight wins will find themselves in the NFC playoffs come January.
How can this be? Simply put it’s is something that is instilled in the psyche of a team. See, the Bears as they are currently constructed are a group of “misfit toys” lacks a proper coaching scheme to personnel (especially on offense). So that “something” I just referred to is confidence. What you say? How can a team that has just endured a brutal 7 game losing streak, a HC (Matt Nagy) who is renting-not buying and 2 QB’s (Nick Foles + Mitchell Trubisky) that wouldn’t start for the other 31 teams of the league be even close to possessing confidence? Ahh, theses that damn annoying bell once again are ringing in my years informing me it’s that time once again for the sometime annoying but always informative world of “Psychobabble!”
Confidence
We all know the feeling of confidence. When we are in possession of this “gift” we tend to hold our heads high, walk with a distinct flair and speak with authority to the point people notice you just by your presence. This special demeanor although great is very fleeting in its existence. When one is in possession you feel invincible but once you lose it you wonder if you will ever get it back. Such is the Chicago Bears where this proud organization which once was the envy of the league, yet previous to last years unexpected resurgence found itself confined to their dens and forced to hibernate as the relished the day they could once again regain their presence among the league’s elite. That past swagger and confidence on the shores of Lake Michigan made this team a force of the league that was typified by its geographies cold howling winter winds that when combined with their teams usual aggressive and volatile defenses drew the cheers of the locals which embodied the “Monsters of the Midway” mantra.
This intrinsic confidence I speak of has had a hard time becoming visually evident as this team located in the city with “broad shoulders” looked more like a weak and feeble shadow of what you think of when you ponder a Bears “look.” The Bears, once the gold standard within the NFC has had to watch their 2 bitter rivals in Green Bay and Minnesota fly by them to established themselves as NFC North powers as they have gone back and forth a for some time as the “kings” while leaving the poor Bears in their wake. Surprisingly even after dominating the division in 2018, this year was to be no different as nary a bloviating soul dared take the Bear pups over the “walk on water” Aaron Rodgers led Packers or the supposedly defensively dominate Norseman for division supremacy.
I will agree that the Bears are in desperate need of a “face lift’ as the offense that was (don’t laugh) be similar to the high-octane champs (Chiefs). Bears HC Matt Nagy was tied to the hip with Chiefs HC Andy Reid as his assistant OC. He and Reid spent countless hours over dozens upon dozens of Krispy Kreme doughnuts concocting the offense that now in KC is the envy of the league. Yet as we all know Trubisky isn’t Patrick Mahomes while WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelsey and a stable of high-level offensive components are not waking through the doors at Hallas Hall but there are components that tell me the Bears with the proper offensive personnel are not that far off. That is if they can come to their senses and get a real GM to come and save them (assuming they fire the perpetually incompetent current GM Ryan Pace). Bears Defensive Coordinator Chuck Pagano, who took over from the departed Vic Fangio (Denver HC) has kept intact the attacking and aggressive defense that is nearly impossible to run against and watching them you can feel from the start that they are always one inch away from a game altering turnover on each and every play. This is not to forget the new offense brought with him from Kansas City by 4th year head coach Matt Nagy. Although Trubisky is still a work in progress, Nagy has done a poor job incorporating a highly diverse and talented-unheralded group of offensive personnel that is just not uniquely suited for his spread/space attack (GM Pace’s fault). Yet in the rare instances when it is clicking (last week v Houston) and although lacking the talent currently in KC, this offense can show glimpses of why Nagy was brought to town in the 1st place.
Skeptical
My question is, “why is the public for the most part still questioning and discounting the Bears?” I mean if you watch each and every Sunday you would have known that the Bears defense is a handful. Yet even with this visual and statistical evidence, bloviating hacks and the public alike are still on a “shot fighter” Vikings whose offensive talent is light years ahead of the Bears yet find themselves in a loser goes home death match in Week 15. In addition, the tight hipped and slow 1990’s style defense the Vikings employ which is built to stop conventional pro-set offenses yet are clueless on how to even slow down the spread attack (RPO) which with Trubisky the Bears are built to be.
Say what you will about the Bears. Whether you believe in the them or nor as a legitimate contender, no one can deny that their body language and aggressive play exudes nothing but confidence. This “swagger” has been highly evident since they made the switch back to Trubisky and under his “leadership” they have beaten this fraudulent Viking squad the last 4 times when he is under center. Is this irrational confidence? Maybe, but it got me thinking about how we feel about the Chiefs when Mahomes is faced with a 4th and 5 or when KC is down in the 4th quarter. You can disagree but for myself I always feel the Chiefs with Mahomes will find a way to get the job done. I will assume that if I feel this way, how do you think the Chief’s players feel? Not to mention their highly nervous opponents. The Bears might not have and/or show this same confidence against the rest of the league but when they play the Kirk Cousins + Zimmer led Vikings, they ooze this same Chiefs like arrogance.
So, what exactly is confidence, how does one get it and more importantly how then does one keep it? I’m glad you asked.
Team Confidence
Much of the research on self-efficacy (self-confidence) beliefs has focused on the individual level of behavior. However, in many organizational settings, such as business, military, or sport, individuals perform as members of teams rather than just as individuals. Thus, many of the challenges and difficulties people face in organizations reflect team problems requiring team efforts to produce successful performance.
There is a difference in self-efficacy (self-confidence) and perceived collective efficacy (team confidence). Self-efficacy refers to people's judgments of individual capabilities and effort; collective efficacy or team confidence refers to people's judgments of group capabilities and influences "what people choose to do as a group, how much effort they put into it, and their staying power when group efforts fail to produce results.” In this view, teams with high collective confidence beliefs should outperform and should persist longer than teams with low perceived collective confidence. Research has concluded that team confidence to be the most powerful discriminator of winning and losing teams.
Similar to self-confidence, the confidence of a team or organization is most likely influenced by diverse sources of confidence information. As with self-confidence beliefs, performance accomplishments of the team are predicted to be the most powerful source of information for team confidence beliefs. Organizations that have an outstanding record of performance undoubtedly cultivate a strong sense of confidence among their members. Likewise, a serious performance failure—such as the continual Viking failures in the spotlight especially on the road—can decrease the collective confidence of the organization's members, which, in turn, can influence subsequent failures. The perceived collective confidence of a team or group might also be influenced through a collective social comparison process with other teams. It is also possible that reciprocal social influences within a team can raise or lower collective confidence for team performance. For example, the modeling of confidence or ineffectiveness by one member of the group may influence the rest of the group's sense of confidence (See Viking QB Kirk Cousins turnovers and lack of big game success). In addition, just as persuasive information can influence an individual's sense of self-confidence, collective efficacy theory suggests that it could also influence an entire group. Charismatic leaders seem to have this special “it” factor that inflicts persuasive influence on their organization's members (Mahomes).
Oozing
Additional research further suggests that team confidence is rooted in self-confidence. A team that has a strong sense of collective confidence can enhance the perceived task-specific confidence of its members, although a team with a weak sense of collective confidence may not totally undermine the perceived self-confidence of its more resilient members. Members of a team who have weak beliefs in their own individual capabilities are unlikely to be easily transformed into a strong collective force (underdog/”us against the world” mentality).
In terms of the assessment of perceived team confidence, research suggests that team confidence may be insufficiently represented as a predictor of team performance through just the sum of the perceived personal confidences of its members, especially on highly interactive tasks or in situations in which members must work together to achieve success. A study of predicting team performance on the basis of individual performances provides some evidence for the possible moderating influence of task type on the confidence-performance relationship in teams. Using baseball (which does not require a lot of interaction among team members for team outcome), the teams’ outcome can be determined 90 percent of the time. However, for basketball (which does require a lot of interaction), the team’s outcome cam be predicted only 35 percent of the time. This outcome suggests that the average of team members' perceptions of their team's performance capability should be added to their personal confidence to execute their individual functions in a collective task to measure team confidence.
This construct of team confidence may be related to other constructs of group motivation. For example, a team's collective confidence beliefs may also be influenced by the nature of its collective goals. As interpreted from research, effective team performance would require the merging of diverse individual goals in support of common group goals. If a team consists of a group of members who are all pursuing their own individual goals, they are not as apt to work together to achieve the necessary team goals to be successful, especially on highly interactive tasks (James Harden-Russell Westbrook-OBJ). In addition, when the overall success of a team calls for sustained efforts over a long time, short-term intermediate goals may be needed to provide incentives, provide evidence of progress along the way, and sustain team confidence beliefs (Steph Curry-Tom Brady).
Purpose
The attributions a team ascribes for its successes and failures may also influence team confidence. For example, an athletic team that defeats a difficult opponent with minimal effort may perceive itself to be highly confident. Conversely, if that same team worked very hard but lost to an easier opponent, perceived team confidence may weaken. Perceived team confidence may, in turn, influence the types of causal attributions that teams make about their performance. Teams with little confidence may infer that poor performance was due to a lack of ability (Jets); highly confident teams may ascribe poor performance to a lack of effort (Raiders). Team confidence and cohesion may also be related. Both constructs have been shown to be positively associated with successful performance and persistence in the face of adversity Thus, team confidence and team cohesion appear to share some common elements.
A team's collective confidence beliefs may similarly be related to a team's desire for success. For example, research found that teams with a strong desire for success (Chiefs) outperformed groups with a weaker desire for success (Lions). Over time, when a group succeeded more often than it failed, members of that group were more interested in the activity and had a stronger desire for their group to perform well (Chiefs). Thus, successful outcome had a cyclical relationship with desire for success. Team confidence could also be part of this relationship. Successful performance can be expected to positively influence team confidence, which in turn should lead to behaviors and actions (e.g., setting higher goals, working harder) that enhance the ability of the group to succeed in the future, resulting in an even stronger desire for group success (Chiefs). This relationship may not hold for tasks that are not intrinsically motivating.
Lazy Minds
Social loafing may also be conceptualized in terms of team confidence. However, social loafing (conceptualized as the motivational losses in group performance) may represent the dark side of team confidence. In typical team performance situations, the evaluation potential for any one individual is not as strong as it would be for an individual performance, and this situation can give rise to social loafing. If individual team members believe that their team is highly capable of performing a task, they may loaf (Chargers). Thus, high team confidence may actually undermine contributions to team performance unless there is individual identifiability (Large favorites who don’t cover and/or lose outright).
In the end the results of the latest research suggest that when individual contributions toward team performance are identifiable, highly confident members may exert more effort toward performance than members whose confidence is not high. Increased individual effort towards performance usually facilitates successful team performance, which in turn may enhance perceived team confidence (Bears).
EDGE
Living in the Past
The Vikings under HC Mike Zimmer has built their defense in the old school model as they figured the NFL offenses would continue to look and act like we were still in the Jeff Fisher era of what NFL offenses should be. Funny thing happened one day when the 49ers and Rams said, “the hell with this BS” and were all in on the offensive revolutionary philosophies. The always pragmatic Chiefs HC Andy Reid jumped on board with many others now in tow and now what you have in a “split second” is a league that defensively was not prepared from a schematic and personnel standpoint to stop it. Gone (or soon to be) are the “dead weight” and archaic mentalities (Lynn, Patricia, Fisher, Joseph, Lewis, etc.) and in comes the young and fresh blood that is just going to go for it (Kingsbury, La Fleur, Shanahan, McVay, etc.).
This is the Vikings biggest problem moving forward. Just look at the Vikings defensively when they face the past “dead weight” offenses. In facing these offensively challenged philosophical mentalities they look like an elite defensive unit that could be legendary; now place them up against the new-space opening spread attacks and you find teams consistently putting up 30+ and making them look foolish and it all starts and ends with supposed defensive “genius” Viking HC Mike Zimmer.
Change is difficult
Now I am not here to kill Zimmer or the rest of the league from here on out if they decide to hire a defensive coordinator to be their head coach, but if teams do decide to go this route, they need to find someone that has a track record of stopping the new style of NFL offense. Just take a look at the current HC’s that were defensive coordinators and it’s a trail of wreckage spewed across NFL stadiums of epic proportions as their team’s defensive stats are horrific. These “dinosaurs” can be blamed not because they suddenly lack defensive intelligence but is due to the across the board overall lack of knowledge in how to stop the “out of control train” of the new and diverse NFL offenses and the “brainchild’s” behind them. Now, will there be an adjustment in the future as the teams hire the new wave of defensive coordinators and modern GM’s begin to draft the right personnel, of course, but until then these defensive HC are just trying to tread water until the reinforcements arrive. Sorry to say that for most in this win now professional sports world the current old-school defensive minded HC will be long gone to pasture with the other geriatric coaches that refused and/or didn’t know how to adjust. This “old folks’ home” will eventually be resided by the likes of Crennell, Wilks, Patricia, Quinn, Carroll, Bowles, Lewis, Williams, Marrone, Lynn, etc. If one wants a templet of a “new school” defensive minded HC’s, the only one is Sean Mc Dermott HC of the Buffalo Bills. He has learned well how stop the spread attack and with more experience and defensive talent moving forward I feel that Buffalo will be the ”bell cow” on how to devise the scheme and obtain the correct personnel for the future defenses to thrive in the current offensive revolution.
GAME TIME
So as for the game. This is a horrible match-up for the “Norseman.” The play a man defense that the new spread attack is specially built for. This Minnesota style of defensive creates huge mismatches for the offense to create space which allows multiple plays for the QB to choose from. This also allows the QB the ability to use the run pass option for massive gains since the defenders are running with their man so there is no containing the QB from making a play with their legs. The Vikings defense although talented can’t keep up to the speed and versatility of these spread/space offenses/QB’s and so there will be huge chunks of yardage with very little resistance.
The key to beating the Bears is the opposite of the Vikings defensive philosophy. With Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky being a one read QB, he actually is very good a quickly finding the open space and if the first pass option is covered, he will just take off a run since the defense has its back to the offense which allows him a free reign. The Vikings under Zimmer have proven time and time again that they collectivity struggle with these types of offenses and QB’s. Simply look at what spread attack offenses have done in their performances against this injured and young defense and you will find a HC that doesn’t adjust not because he can’t but because he doesn’t know how and is too stubborn to learn.
The way to game plan a QB and offense like this is play zone which takes away the QB run and forces the QB to be precise in their ability to hit the receivers in the holes of the zone. This is not a quality in which is part of Trubisky repertoire. To stop him (or any RPO style QB) I would forgo the all-out pass rush as to just maintain your spot and get your hands up in the passing lanes.
Zimmer’s defense, which was once a successful philosophy but now has been rendered archaic. The west coast offense ruled the league for 20+ years and is primary the offense that Zimmer built his defenses to stop. But now the league has drastically changed while Zimmer’s defensive philosophy hasn’t. Zimmer by today’s standards is outdated and unlike Chief’s HC Andy Reid who saw the future and changed, Zimmer didn’t which has his very future in this league highly compromised and worse off he knows it yet is paralyzed by fear to change it. Don’t believe me? Simply look at the Raiders who just fired their DC Paul Guenther. He was a Zimmer disciple and was running the exact same “dinosaur” scheme that Zimmer currently is using with Minnesota. Now are you buying what I’m selling?
Bear Trap
Another problem the Vikings are going to have is holding back this attack happy Bears defense. Led by LB Kalil Mack and DL Akiem Hicks, it is a defense that shuts down the run and is a risk reward secondary. Yes, the Vikings have the weapons at WR to expose this weakness but with Vikings QB Kirk “Crisco” Cousins lack of pocket and clock awareness, his inconsistent communications with his arsenal and his “nervous” demeanor makes him a perpetual turnover just waiting to happen. Can you say he (Cousins) the sacrificial lamb in the hungry lion’s (Bears) den?
My faith in the Bears is exacerbated by my lack of it concerning Minnesota as it pertains to this perennial group of underachievers in winning any big game. Led by a “mental midget” at QB (Cousins is 5-24 in “marquee games) who is prone to turn the ball over when it matters the most (red zone) and with no true team leader “(Alpha Dog)” that gives off 1/100th of the confidence that this current group of hungry Bears have oozing out of them. This leaves the physically talented Vikings always wondering ‘why” they can never get over the “hump” (now you know).
No “Beauty”
Now in a game only diehards will love we actually are “blessed” to view a matchup of strength (Vikings running game) on strength (Bears run defense) and weakness (Viking defense) on weakness (Bears offense).
In this game you will find out rather quickly who will install their will on the other. Will it be the Vikings RB Dalvin Cook who will run up against a brick wall against this Bear defense (Cook has 183 total yards rushing in his last 4 games v Chicago with a putrid 2.8 yds per carry) or will he keep the “train on the tracks” with his elite play which has seen him become a multi-purpose offensive weapon with not only his league leading rushing prowess, but also out of the backfield as a receiver. His play has in my opinion elevated him above all others as the premier RB in the league. Yet Cook as talented as he is will be going against a mean and nasty top five run defending unit filled with top level talent (Hicks, Smith, Mack, Jackson, Treviathian, etc.). This my friends is a heavyweight fight in the trenches that will dictate the entire game.
This game will also be very simple for all you in game investors. If Cook gets lose it will open up the passing game allowing the Vikings to essentially do whatever they wish offensively. If successful it will keep the Bears defenders on their heels allowing the Vikings to chew up clock ad post their score on their way to a “easy” win. Conversely if the Bears stuff Cook forcing the Vikings to put the ball in highly dependent QB Kirk Cousins hands to beat them it has disaster for the Vikings written all over it. If this occurs, you can look for the prime time “mental midget” Cousins to throw an untimely interception for a Bears score making the offensively inept Bears offense barely break a sweat as the defense will single-handedly win them this game.
Frat Boys
Before I conclude I would be remiss if I didn’t address the horrific Viking special teams. I know that Viking K Dan Bailey’s recent struggles has received all the press, but his issues are just a symptom of the overall disease that has infected this current Viking special teams’ unit (Ranked #31 and only ahead of LAC). Along with the missed kicks the Vikings have been plagued by blocked and fumbled punts, allowing long kick/punt returns, bad snaps while only having through 13 games a grand total of 25 punt return yards the entire year (on pace for an all-time NFL record low). This disaster is just another indictment on how in conjunction with his archaic offense, game and clock mismanagement Zimmer simply doesn’t understand conceptually how to lead a modern NFL team and thus has no business being a HC in today’s NFL and beyond. I know that Chargers HC Anthony Lynn is the “poster coach” for leadership malpractice but Zimmer needs to be included in this ever so incompetent “fraternity of dysfunction.”
One more added nugget is that All-Pro MLB and team leader Erick Kendricks is doubtful once again. If he misses his 3rd straight start the Viking defense, already weak, will once again be rendered “toothless’ as he single-handedly fills the passing lanes (top ranked LB in pass defense) while hounding the opponents top RB. Without him the Vikings lack any defensive aggression and are in essence a collective group of “fish out of water.”
Conclusion
I know this number is off since the look ahead was Vikings-6 and just a month ago these same two clubs met up in Chicago and the Vikings were the same 3-3.5 favorites, they are at home today. I know it’s an emotional investment and a “square” play which we all know usually ends with disaster. But you know what? I don’t care! Even with the suspect point spread I will go with the hungry and revenge minded Bears who have a HC and QB fighting for their very football lives and whom since their last match-up went back to Trubisky and have proceed to score 25, 30 and 36 points respectively in their last 3 games (thus an over play as well), up against an outdated, tight-hipped, flat-footed, slow to react and rudderless ship Viking team which has no confidence in their so-called franchise QB (Cousins), who “sees ghosts” concerning an opposing teams pass rush and usually comes up lame in a big time spot when his team needs him the most.
Finally, if it was indeed 1995 the Viking players because of the defensive scheme could start sizing their fingers for that diamond studded Super Bowl ring, but as we know this is 2020 and what gave you the Lombardi trophy 25 years ago gets you nothing more than a high draft pick and for the coaching staff (Zimmer+ company) the unemployment line today.
If your arriving late to the party I welcome all of you to the modern NFL! The top teams in the league now and in the future have figured it out that this what we are currently experiencing is the “new normal,” while for the Vikings it’s sad to say the future look extremely bleak as they as an organization keep asking “when will we get back to normal?” GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL! PhD!
OTHER PLAYS:
JAGUARS +13
JAGUARS/RAVENS OVER 48
BEARS/VIKINGS OVER 47
2-TEAM 7-POINT TEASER:
SAINTS +10/GIANTS +14
OVERALL RECORD:
2020/ 47-37-4-56%
2019/ 54-53-4-50%
2018/ 49-30-2-62%
2017/ 48-47-3-50%
2016/ 48-42-3-53%
2015/ 36-18-5-67%
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL! PhD.