here's my theory:
Cleveland knew "week 1 at Balt" was a horrible spot. they also knew they had week 2 at home vs. cincy. obviously coaches likely prep a little for both. they didn't just wake up monday morning like "oh, shit, we play THURSDAY, short week!?!!?"
they prepare. now of course they still tried to beat the Ravens. but with an extra wildcard slot this year and a new coach, perhaps they know they aren't beating Balt. but they have a shot at a wildcard. maybe stay vanilla since they'll have to host the Ravens in a home MNF game that they would much rather show well in, regardless the records at this point. but... they know they have to sweep Cincy. and Baker and Beckham seem like front runners. They'll quietly lay eggs on Sunday afternoon vs tough defenses like Balt but then hit one slant vs the Bengals in prime time and suddenly everyone's pounding their chests. Soon Myles Garrett is chasing Burrow into bad decisions (and covering up for Cleveland secondary deficiencies)...
I think the squares and casual bettors will be lining up to grab Burrow and Co at +6 and wondering why this game isn't closer to 3 or 4. they think Cincy shoulda could beat the Chargers. big deal. the Chargers are conservative offense with a new (old) QB playing ball control. Cincy let a rookie RB rip off 60yds and TD and it's not like they had to worry about a big passing game from the Chargers. And now this week new Browns coach Stefanski likes to pound the rock and has 2 good backs to do it vs that same depleted Cincy front. They couldn't do it at Baltimore, but also they got behind quickly. that wont be the case here. they've got the mismatch to run it down Cincy's throat. Hue and Freddy never knew the right game plan, but this staff will.
Burrow will still make a few plays, and look ok himself. But Stefanski will protect Baker from himself, and bully the Bengals with Chubb and Hunt and pitch-and-catch with Austin Hooper.
would like this better with home fans (assuming Browns are leading as I plan) but maybe no fans takes some of that huge game "pressure on baker" factor if the Cleveland crowd turned ugly too early. also, no crowd keeps it a sterile environment, not the Big Game Energy that Burrow might thrive in.
Cleveland wins 28-17 or 27-20 type game...
Browns -6