Pregame NFL Record – 4 Years:
328 – 266 @ 55% for +35.4 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2019:
13 – 9 for +3.1 Units
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Week 3 Plays:
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#2: Denver Broncos +7.5
#3: Indianapolis Colts -1.5
#4: Cincinnati Bengals +6
#5: New York Giants +6
#6: Carolina Panthers +2
#7: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
#8: Houston Texans +3 (+105)
#9: New Orleans Saints +4.5
#10: Cleveland Browns +3.5
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
DEN @ GB -7.5
Coming off two close wins against top-divisional opponents – Bears and Vikings – and hosting Philadelphia next week, this is a prime ‘sandwich’ type of a game for the Packers. Denver is off two narrow losses and is obviously desperate for a win to get their season turned around. Last week the Broncos averaged 4.9 YPP against the Bears. The Packers averaged….well, the same 4.9 YPP against the Vikings. This game is priced as if Green Bay is an ‘elite’ offense and they’re not right now. Throw in the fact that this line was -6.5 in the off-season, so there’s definitely some value on the underdog with the current number.
Lean: DEN +7.5
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ATL @ IND -1.5
Atlanta is one dropped Nelson Agholor pass away from starting the season 0-2. They barely beat an Eagles team that lost a number of key receivers during last week’s game at home. Now they go back on the road, where this team is 5-14 ATS in the last few years. This is Indy’s home opener after taking the Chargers to OT and then winning @ TEN to start out the season. They look like a slightly better team to me, and seem to be mis-priced as this spot.
Lean: IND -1.5
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BAL @ KC -5.5
This one was KC -7.5 in the off-season, so Baltimore’s early season showing is impressing the bookmakers. The Chiefs will be without Damien Williams this week, though not sure this matters much. What matters more is that the Ravens will still be without Jimmy Smith, their best CB. In any case, this one feels like the game that will really show us how good the Ravens really are, as the jury is still out on them.
Lean: KC -5.5
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CIN @ BUF -6
I backed the Bills in the first two weeks of the season but this is a potential ‘fade’ spot. Anytime you see a team jump up to a pretty significant favorite, you need to pause. The off-season line on this game was BUF -4. For one, they will be without Devin Singletary, who looks to be a pretty explosive runner. Old man Gore will have to carry the load in this one, and I doubt the Bills will rush the ball as well as San Fran did last week against the Bengals. In addition, the Bills are hosting the Patriots next week. After two straight road-wins, with the Pats on the docket, can you say a potential ‘look ahead’ spot? Buffalo has a strong pass-D, but they rank 27th against the run in the early going. Mixon promised to play better, and I’d assume Cincy will emphasize him in this one. Teams that started the season as 0-2 are 12-4 ATS overall and 11-2 ATS as underdogs.
Lean: CIN +6
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NYJ @ NE -21
Up 37-0 with less than 3 minutes to play, Tom Brady is still in there chucking passes against arguably the worst NFL team of all time (too early to determine that but Miami is on its way). When the Pats don’t stop attacking like that till the last second is off the clock, it of course is more challenging to cover large spreads with underdogs while fading New England. I don’t bet 3-TD favorites in the NFL, so for me these types of matchups are always dog-or-pass. With the Jets starting a 3rd stringer at QB, and with both CJ Mosley and Q-Williams unlikely to suit up, it’s not easy backing the road team in this one.
Lean: NYJ +21
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DET @ PHI -5
Through the first two weeks of the season Detroit is sporting a top-10 defense. Now they get to face a Philly team that will be without some of their top receivers as Jeffery, Jackson, and Goedert are all out. Loss of Jackson is especially critical, because he was the field-stretcher for this team. Without him, the Lions can keep everything underneath, lock down Agholor with Slay, and force Wentz into long-drives. On the other side, Philly’s pass-D has been awful and their secondary is playing really poorly. Golladay and Jones should shine here. Philly is 3-10 ATS with Wentz as a starter in the last few years and 1-6 ATS with him at home. His depleted receiving group won’t help matters in improving this ATS-trend.
Lean: DET +5
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OAK @ MIN -9
This one opened at -7 and has continued to climb steadily throughout the week. Vikings are in a bounce-back mode, after losing @ Green Bay last week. The problem here is that if Oakland can only score 10 points at home against the Chiefs mediocre D, what are they going to do against the Vikings on the road? This line was -7 in the offseason, so clearly there’s some inflation going on here. Vikings do have a game @ Chicago next week, but hard to see them overlook this one coming off a loss. Still, remember, if you’re laying this much, you’re basically betting on a Kirk Cousins-led offense to outscore an opponent by double-digits. Do you really want to put your hard-earned money on something like that?
Lean: OAK +9
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MIA @ DAL -22.5
It’s MIA +22.5 or pass here, though backing a team that is outright trying to lose game is extremely difficult. Survivor alert!
Lean: MIA +22.5
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NYG @ TB -6
This game reminds me of the BUF/CIN matchup, where a team that hasn’t been very good for a while, is listed as a fairly large favorite. Tampa’s defensive improvements seem real under Todd Bowles, but offensively, Jameis Winston has continued to show that he’s simply a fairly mediocre NFL QB. Of course the real question here is, how much of an improvement is Daniel Jones over Eli Manning. I’m willing to bet (no pun intended) that it’s fairly significant. Jones looked really good in the pre-season, but more importantly, Eli has looked really bad for a number of years already. This change can’t be anything but a positive for the Giants…in the long run. But will Jones play well on the road in his first NFL start? Hard to say. This line was -3 TB in the off-season, so it’s fairly higher right now.
Lean: NYG +6
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CAR @ ARZ -2
Cam Newton is out for this one, yet the bookmakers are still listing the Panthers as a better team in this matchup. Hmmm. The off-season line was +3 ARZ in this matchup, so we have a 5-point adjustment. Is it justified? Kyle Allen played in week 17 last year and looked pretty good. Of course he was going up against the Saints’ backups in that one though this Arizona defense might not be any better. Remember, Newton has looked hurt this year so far, so with Allen in the fold, this offense might play better, maybe even ‘significantly’ better. Really interesting line here, and with 65%+ of all the tickets on the Cardinals, the number isn’t budging.
Lean: CAR +2
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PIT @ SF -6.5
In the off-season the line was PK. Oh how times do change. Without Roethlisberger, the number is 6.5 points higher. But is it justified? Roethlisberger looked really bad in the 1.5 games he did play this year so maybe some infusion of youth is what the Steelers need. Rudolph came in and went 12 for 19, averaging 5.9 YPA with 2 TD’s and 1 INT. Not great, but not too bad either. With a full week to prepare, he should play better. At 0-2 Steelers are a desperate team, while San Fran is feeling pretty good after their 2-0 start. This is a type of a scenario when I typically look to fade an inflated number.
Lean: PIT +6.5
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HOU @ LAC -3
The Chargers are struggling offensively, as their O-line is depleted and their offensive weapons are either hurt or holding out. They barely beat IND and lost a close one to DET, where both teams combined for 23 measly points. Now they’ll take on a Houston team that has some firepower. The Texans lost a narrow one at NO (Brees was healthy for the full game) and of course a tight one against the Jags, whose defense has come to play two games in a row now (including that TNF destruction of the Titans). LA (hard to think of them as not San Diego anymore) is bottom-10 in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) so far, and if they’re not getting pressure on Watson, Houston will put up points. The question is, can the Chargers keep up?
Lean: HOU +3
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NO @ SEA -4.5
Off-season line was PK on this game, so goes to show you what a loss of Brees means here. Still, it’s not as large as expected, even though Bridgewater looked absolutely awful last week (5.5 YPA with a QBR of 11). With a full-week to prepare for this one, I think everyone (bookmakers included) expects him to perform much better. We also have to remember that Seattle hasn’t looked like anything special. They barely beat a poor Cincy team at home (won by 1), and struggled to put away a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team last week (won by 2). Their combined winning margin of 3 is less than the spread on this matchup. Value is on the dog here.
Lean: NO +4.5
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LAR @ CLE +3.5
Last week there were a ton of home-dogs, but on Sunday there’s only one, and it’s this one, so let me say this: Early-season home-dog alert! Remember, Goff has been significantly worse on the road in his career than at home (Big Ben style), so a bit of a downgrade to the Rams offense should be expected. Furthermore, LA hasn’t done anything that impressive yet this season. The barely won @ Carolina in week 1, and struggled to put away the Brees-less Saints for most of the game last week. Cleveland was clearly way over-hyped entering the season, but this is a spot to get the hype-train rolling again.
Lean: CLE +3.5
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