Miami Dolphins +21 @ Dallas Cowboys (-110) – .5 Units
Just when you thought all was lost for Fins fans worldwide, this morning Canada announced a ban on dolphin captivity. In related news, rumor has it 2018 1st round pick, Minkah Fitzpatrick will be granted his trade request sooner rather than later.
The South Florida mutiny has reached peaked hilarity. The Dolphins have been outscored by 92 points through 2 games. They are the perfect example of a team that no one will bet right now, which inherently presents value.
When a team starts badly the betting market fails to keep everything in perspective. Teams that start the season 0-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons are 16-5 ATS in Week 3. Since 2014, teams in this scenario have covered the spread 65.7% of the time.
All things pass. These men are professionals – and will try their damndest to not be associated with complete & utter futility. Everyone in that organization is playing for their next contract. I don’t believe people give up money easily if there’s anything at all they can do about it.
The nobody-believes-in-us factor may never be stronger with any team that it will be with the Fins this Sunday. Being on the road will be a relief since they won’t have to answer to local fans about their miserable start.
Teams that were 10+ point underdogs in their previous game and are 10+ point underdogs the next week are 75-61-3 ATS (55%) all-time.
Let’s look at it from the Cowboys perspective.
Teams favored by 17+ are 11-21-1 ATS all-time. Yes, teams favored by 17+ are 5-2 ATS since 2011. And one could argue that the passing revolution has made these big favorites more playable. However, the Cowboys have an old-school team construct, built primarily on their world-class offensive line. They won’t mind being an old school bull and winning 20-3.
Teams favored by 20+ are 2-9 ATS all-time, with an average ATS margin of -6.77. Since 1992 teams favored by 20+ points are 0-9 ATS with an average ATS margin of -12.0.
In NFL history, no team has covered a line of 21 points or more. 0-5 ATS, with a -10.7 margin.
America’s team attracts America’s money and the books price them accordingly. The Cowboys are 5-8 ATS all-time when favored by more than 2 touchdowns. Dallas has lost it’s past 6 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than a touchdown. Since 2007, the Boys are 6-14 ATS in any location when favored by more than a touchdown.
This line opened at -15 and instantly shot up to -21 in favor of Dallas. The sportsbooks are protecting themselves as millions will throw them on teasers and parlays. Everyone may be right in their assumption that the Cowboys win & win easy. But I don’t think the average bettor is looking critically at this number, allowing it to float 6 points too high.
Dallas/Miami Under 47.5 - .5 Units
Weird to bet against a team that I am optimistic about. I think the Cowboys essentially naming their score on Sunday. I just don't see that score being very high.
Here are the Cowboys goals for the week.
Let Zeke eat. Let the rookie Tony Pollard start making a name for himself. Keep Dak upright. Post a shutout for the first time since 2017, and only for the 5th time this century. All of these I see as admirable goals for the Cowboys. Win by 30 or 40, however, I don't see as one of their aspirations.
If your sportsbook allows it to consider the Dolphins +21 parlayed to the Under. The Dolphins may or may not get on the board. The Cowboys take the air out of the ball early and move on to hike bigger mountains.